Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

[GaWx]

RGEM did it again, it’s honestly the best short-medium range model right now

And this despite a well documented cold bias much of the time as was the case with Sunday morning lows (well before the precip). So, is the RGEM usually the best in the main Carolina/N GA CAD region when there’s any CAD along with precip and it is the coldest model? Or is it still too cold during a good number of CAD precip episodes?

Congrats to GSO area yet again!! What a 5 week period there with 5 wintry events!

 

[rburrel2]

This is very much, imo, but the rgem's cold bias is really mainly related to it overdoing radiational cooling conditions under cleary skies and calm winds. Radiational cooling is very difficult to forecast lots of times. If you ever follow spring freeze/frost events for crop purposes you'll see how "off" models can be. For whatever reason the Canadian models like to really go for it with the calm winds and max radiational cooling while the american models often underdo rational cooling. Of course if the slightest breeze kicks up, or a few clouds develop then the warmer solutions/models are more accurate which is oftentimes what happens.

It doesn't have as much of a cold bias in winter storm setups where radiational cooling isn't a factor, from my memory anyways.

And this despite a well documented cold bias much of the time as was the case with Sunday morning lows (well before the precip). So, is the RGEM usually the best in the main Carolina/N GA CAD region when there’s any CAD along with precip and it is the coldest model? Or is it still too cold during a good number of CAD precip episodes?

Congrats to GSO area yet again!! What a 5 week period there with 5 wintry events!

 

[rburrel2]

furthermore the Rgem on the warmer side of guidance in the short term for my backyard for the big January snow storm. Here are the temperature readings for my back yard from all the model cycles leading up to that storm, starting at 66hrs out. Rgem did the best.

	7:00 PM	1:00 AM	total liquid 1am		7:00 AM
18z gfs	41/32	37/36	.21 liquid		34/32
18z Nam 3k	37/32	32/29	.05 liquid		N/A
18z Nam	38/29	32/28	.02 liquid		27/23
18z RGEM	42/25	37/28	.01 liquid		29/27
12z Euro	41/31	35/30	.02 liquid		27/23
12z Ukmet	40/33	38/33	.00 liquid		33/33
00z Nam	37/29	33/30	.02 liquid		28/23
00z Nam 3k	38/30	35/26	.00 liquid		27/23
00z gfs	41/32	37/36	.08 liquid		33/32
00z RGEM	42/23	38/25	.01 liquid		30/27
00z EURO	39/32	35/31	.04 liquid		28/26
00z Ukmet	40/33	37/34	.00 liquid		35/34
06z RGEM	43/24	37/28	.01 liquid		30/28
06z Nam 3k	39/31	36/26	.00 liquid		28/24
06z Nam
06z gfs	41/33	38/37	.20 liquid		36/33
12z NAM	39/30	33/32	.12 liquid		30/27
12z Nam 3k	40/31	37/26	.00 liquid		28/25
12z Hrrr	39/34	36/33	.00 liquid		31/29
12z gfs	41/32	38/36	.11 liquid		33/32
12z ukmet	40/36	39/36	.00 liquid		33/33
12z euro	39/33	35/33	.07 liquid		30/27
12z Rgem	41/24	37/28	.02 liquid		32/29
18z NAM	37/33	35/32	.00 liquid		28/25
18z Nam 3k	37/32	36/30	.01 liquid		28/25
18z Hrrr	39/31	36/29	.00 liquid		28/28
18z Rgem	41/25	37/27	.01 liquid		30/28
18z gfs	41/32	37/35	.11 liquid		33/32
00z Hrrr	39/28	34/31	.01 liquid		27/24
00z Nam 3k	37/32	35/31	.00 liquid		29/26
00z Nam	37/29	34/29	.00 liquid		30/27
00z Rgem	40/26	37/29	.02 liquid		31/28
12z Hrrr	41/30	37/26	.01 liquid		27/24
12z Nam 3k	40/32	37/31
12z Nam		36/29
12z Rgem	43/29	38/32	.02 liquid		31/30
verified	40/31				30/29

 

[NCSNOW]

High is gonna be 35 today, well short of the 41 NWS forecast. Fog tonight into the morning with a forecasted low of 28 will prove hazardous again in the morning if this verifies.

 

[WeatherNC]

Crushed it…

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Could of been better in the mnts and it over performed a bit but overall I like it

 

[iGRXY]

Could of been better in the mnts and it over performed a bit but overall I like it View attachment 113386View attachment 113387

I was surprised that we got 4 hours of solid light freezing rain and ended up with a healthy glaze to 0.02 especially on the trees, bushes and gutters.

 

[LukeBarrette]

I was surprised that we got 4 hours of solid light freezing rain and ended up with a healthy glaze to 0.02 especially on the trees, bushes and gutters.

I ended up getting 20 minutes of heavy wet snow so that was cool on the front end. Wasn’t expecting anything