18z euro looking BETTER with the southern stream wave so far
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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
when you need a NW trend, it doesn’t happen. To far NW, it stays NW. lol haha
This is still so meh tho, tilt is better 
18z euro was definitely a bit better, at hour 90 the cutoff was slightly more amped then last run
Hypsometric
Member
Might be grasping at straws, but H7 moisture was a tad further north at the end of the run.
Pretty flat flow out ahead of the system.
FWIW, the bufkit numbers for GSO and CLT were NSFW.
Hypsometric
Member
What it's gonna take to keep it snow (especially RDU east). I think the ceiling for this setup is a dusting-2", maybe 1-3" type of event for most. Any more amped than that, we'll sleet and any less and it'll be cloudy lol. I'd give anything to be wrong though!
Yeah we tried getting better. Cutoff was deeper and quicker, the height feild on top was more favorable for amplification, and the SER itself was stronger which would have resulted in more warm air advection.
This is literally the difference between a mod-high impact winter storm on the GFS, and then not much on the euro. Talk about a sensitive setup
Yeah I think you're right. We don't have a big deep trough this time. We don't have a big arctic wave diving in to phase and crash the column. We have a decent cold shot with a high on the way out by the time a weak southern wave comes through. We should have enough cold for some snow/ice, depending, as you said, on the track and strength of the southern wave. If it amps too much, which I'm becoming doubtful about, it will overwhelm the column.
Clem282340
Member
How the 18z eps look like
Euro control is delicious
Pretty massive N trend on the EPS 
Clem282340
Member
Looks like it is getting closer to the gfs baby steps
18z euro still not quiet there with my thinking I believe north eastern NC and south-eastern Virginia could see more brunt of the storm is this type of system with how the precip slides north-east in fashion
I'd take that 500mb track and bet on the models being too light and small with the precip shield