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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

It’s jumped from 21 to 28 in a little over an hour.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
dewpoint.png
dewpoint.png
dewpoint.png
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I'm not following what you are doing here?
 
Of course I have to go to class while the precip is moving in. I have a hunch that it will start as a snow/sleet mix.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Sheesh if you looked at any model other than the RGEM a day or so ago you would have expected nothing just to wake up to almost a quarter inch of ice lmao
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RGEM did it again, it’s honestly the best short-medium range model right now
 
bigstick10 said:
Can anyone explain WTF this warm tongue is?

View attachment 112985
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1. Rome and ATL actually had similar dewpoints in the middle 20s. But Rome, where that 31 is, was clear all night while it was cloudy all night just to the SE, including ATL area where temps stayed up in the lower 40s.

2. Augusta actually had a much higher dewpoint of upper 30s but they also had light rain much of the night that resulted in wetbulb-ing down to near the dewpoint and thus a few degrees colder than ATL area, which had virtually no rain.

3. Athens also had a higher dewpoint than ATL in the lower 30s, but they had a tiny bit of rain that allowed some wetbulb-ing into the upper 30s/a few degrees colder than ATL area.
 
LukeBarrette said:
RGEM did it again, it’s honestly the best short-medium range model right now
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Yep, Hands down on another level. The Nam and GFS are the worst models on the planet right now. Frustrating performance this season. The winning combo is the Euro and the REGEM. ER rule inside 84 is the new money ticket.
 
LukeBarrette said:
RGEM did it again, it’s honestly the best short-medium range model right now
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And this despite a well documented cold bias much of the time as was the case with Sunday morning lows (well before the precip). So, is the RGEM usually the best in the main Carolina/N GA CAD region when there’s any CAD along with precip and it is the coldest model? Or is it still too cold during a good number of CAD precip episodes?

Congrats to GSO area yet again!! What a 5 week period there with 5 wintry events!
 
This is very much, imo, but the rgem's cold bias is really mainly related to it overdoing radiational cooling conditions under cleary skies and calm winds. Radiational cooling is very difficult to forecast lots of times. If you ever follow spring freeze/frost events for crop purposes you'll see how "off" models can be. For whatever reason the Canadian models like to really go for it with the calm winds and max radiational cooling while the american models often underdo rational cooling. Of course if the slightest breeze kicks up, or a few clouds develop then the warmer solutions/models are more accurate which is oftentimes what happens.

It doesn't have as much of a cold bias in winter storm setups where radiational cooling isn't a factor, from my memory anyways.
GaWx said:
And this despite a well documented cold bias much of the time as was the case with Sunday morning lows (well before the precip). So, is the RGEM usually the best in the main Carolina/N GA CAD region when there’s any CAD along with precip and it is the coldest model? Or is it still too cold during a good number of CAD precip episodes?

Congrats to GSO area yet again!! What a 5 week period there with 5 wintry events!
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furthermore the Rgem on the warmer side of guidance in the short term for my backyard for the big January snow storm. Here are the temperature readings for my back yard from all the model cycles leading up to that storm, starting at 66hrs out. Rgem did the best.

7:00 PM1:00 AMtotal liquid 1am7:00 AM
18z gfs41/3237/36.21 liquid34/32
18z Nam 3k37/3232/29.05 liquidN/A
18z Nam38/2932/28.02 liquid27/23
18z RGEM42/2537/28.01 liquid29/27
12z Euro41/3135/30.02 liquid27/23
12z Ukmet40/3338/33.00 liquid33/33
00z Nam37/2933/30.02 liquid28/23
00z Nam 3k38/3035/26.00 liquid27/23
00z gfs41/3237/36.08 liquid33/32
00z RGEM42/2338/25.01 liquid30/27
00z EURO39/3235/31.04 liquid28/26
00z Ukmet40/3337/34.00 liquid35/34
06z RGEM43/2437/28.01 liquid30/28
06z Nam 3k39/3136/26.00 liquid28/24
06z Nam
06z gfs41/3338/37.20 liquid36/33
12z NAM39/3033/32.12 liquid30/27
12z Nam 3k40/3137/26.00 liquid28/25
12z Hrrr39/3436/33.00 liquid31/29
12z gfs41/3238/36.11 liquid33/32
12z ukmet40/3639/36.00 liquid33/33
12z euro39/3335/33.07 liquid30/27
12z Rgem41/2437/28.02 liquid32/29
18z NAM37/3335/32.00 liquid28/25
18z Nam 3k37/3236/30.01 liquid28/25
18z Hrrr39/3136/29.00 liquid28/28
18z Rgem41/2537/27.01 liquid30/28
18z gfs41/3237/35.11 liquid33/32
00z Hrrr39/2834/31.01 liquid27/24
00z Nam 3k37/3235/31.00 liquid29/26
00z Nam37/2934/29.00 liquid30/27
00z Rgem40/2637/29.02 liquid31/28
12z Hrrr41/3037/26.01 liquid27/24
12z Nam 3k40/3237/31
12z Nam36/29
12z Rgem43/2938/32.02 liquid31/30
verified40/3130/29
 
High is gonna be 35 today, well short of the 41 NWS forecast. Fog tonight into the morning with a forecasted low of 28 will prove hazardous again in the morning if this verifies.
 
iGRXY said:
I was surprised that we got 4 hours of solid light freezing rain and ended up with a healthy glaze to 0.02 especially on the trees, bushes and gutters.
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I ended up getting 20 minutes of heavy wet snow so that was cool on the front end. Wasn’t expecting anything
 
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