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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

over9000 said:
The flow is so zonal ahead of the shortwave it's shredded. H5 was more consistent from the 12z. Could be zeroing in now. Looks pretty balmy in many areas after with the lakes low trapping the arctic air.
gfs_Td2m_us_22.png
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Yes it’s getting warm after. We know that dude.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Models agree on placement really good right now, unbelievablly good. But the need and want in this setup is clear, need a more amped/closed off system that’s better tiltedView attachment 112247View attachment 112248
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Trough was more negative tilted in 12z. This time it cutoff and was neutral. These weak SW's are hard sometimes. The NAO really screwed this winter up. Could have been 2010 easily if the NAO cooperated.
 
FYI, there was a weak dampening out cutoff shortwave last night that gave precip to the texas/la coast... I went back and looked at all the model runs for it in the 84-120hr timeframe and the GFS/Euro were pretty good at nailing down the precip...there were a few runs where both models were a little to dry on the northern fringe euro was more so. ICON was way to suppressed and dry... CMC was actually furthest north with precip(too far north), but it had the 5h evolution wrong.

What does that all mean? I dunno probably nothing. This is going to be a coin flip. cross your fingers.
 
i see why other models disagree with the gfs hell merry solutions. I circled where the storm starts to form and the low rides offshore. The purple line can easily get smacked IF in these last minute formations. The yellow X is pulling a hell merry way too far west with the system barely forming in time and riding offshore it goes against history to see that much qpf as you get to i77 altho it can happen you really need the GOM alive starting back in Texas not directly over you (Florida) or you can easily get shadowed in precip mins near and east of the Appalachians. FF1407EC-61FD-4B54-848A-0D1F172D2D18.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
i see why other models disagree with the gfs hell merry solutions. I circled where the storm starts to form and the low rides offshore. The purple line can easily get smacked IF in these last minute formations. The yellow X is pulling a hell merry way too far west with the system barely forming in time and riding offshore it goes against history to see that much qpf as you get to i77 altho it can happen you really need the GOM alive starting back in Texas not directly over you (Florida) or you can easily get shadowed in precip mins near and east of the Appalachians. View attachment 112250
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Good analysis but I think you misspelled "Hail Mary." Or maybe not. It wasn't clear.
 
BullCityWx said:
You either don’t know what you’re talking about or you are bargaining in bad faith.
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LOL I'm not a weenie and have to look at things on both sides. I am a Meteorologist. I don't give my employers weenie forecasts, because that's unethical and unprofessional. Take a look at GSP's discussion please.
 
Not ruling out winter wx along the western fringe, I’m just seeing a lot of warnings shots that this could be a great storm for Greensboro and maybe Raleigh too! Of course I want winter weather and could wish cast with the gfs but I’m trying to be right and forecast folks bare with us this week and we get closer and can pinpoint these lower qpf boundaries.
 
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