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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

SnowNiner said:
GSP leans toward whiffers. Tosses GFS.

As of 250 PM EST Tuesday: Despite good model agreement and
increasing confidence in the short range, run to run and model
differences creating a low confidence forecast in the medium range.
The northern stream wave from the short term speeds by to our north
Saturday as the southern stream wave moves east. The GFS has a
stronger wave crossing the area Saturday night and early Sunday
while the ECMWF is weaker. Both models show cyclogenesis off the
southeastern coast, but the GFS is stronger and closer to the coast
initially and as it moves up the coast through Sunday. The ECMWF and
Canadian are weaker and farther off shore. The GFS has much more
precip with quite a wintry mix over the CWFA while the ECMWF and
Canadian shower little in the way of precip with only the smallest
potential for any wintry precip. The GFS is a cold and wet outlier,
the coldest and wettest of all the ensemble members for much of the
CWFA. The GEFS mean is much drier and warmer. Therefore, the
operational GFS much be taken with a huge grain of salt. Have gone
with the model blend forecast which has a chance of mostly rain for
most of the area. Temps near normal Saturday then below normal
Sunday. Of course, this bears watching as we get closer in time.

The guidance then shows a phasing split stream system developing
Monday and moving east of the area Tuesday. As with the first one,
the GFS is stronger with the upper waves and the resulting
cyclogenesis off the southeast coast but not as strong. The ECMWF
and Canadian show a weaker system with even less effect on our
weather. As with the first system, went with the guidance blend
which keeps a dry forecast for our area. Temps rise to near normal
Monday then drop a couple of degrees for Tuesday
Click to expand...
Not sure GSP is taking the best path. Would be a good idea not to dismiss it so easily. My point and click shows 30% chance of rain with a high of 42. Having a little trouble buying that one. Guess time will tell.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Not sure GSP is taking the best path. Would be a good idea not to dismiss it so easily. My point and click shows 30% chance of rain with a high of 42. Having a little trouble buying that one. Guess time will tell.
Click to expand...
If the precip gets back our way we'll see some type of frozen more than likely.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Not sure GSP is taking the best path. Would be a good idea not to dismiss it so easily. My point and click shows 30% chance of rain with a high of 42. Having a little trouble buying that one. Guess time will tell.
Click to expand...
GSP is going to take the most conservative route possible. Find the solution that shows nothing or rain and that's what they go with until it's blatantly a sure fire thing that something is going to happen. Good approach here but them saying it really holds no weight as that is their stance on any potential winter storm.
 
iGRXY said:
GSP is going to take the most conservative route possible. Find the solution that shows nothing or rain and that's what they go with until it's blatantly a sure fire thing that something is going to happen. Good approach here but them saying it really holds no weight as that is their stance on any potential winter storm.
Click to expand...
Something I didn’t really understand from GSP’s discussion is them saying the GEFS is much warmer than the Op. I went and looked and the mean is fairly close to the Op on surface temps Sunday
 
The flow is so zonal ahead of the shortwave it's shredded. H5 was more consistent from the 12z. Could be zeroing in now. Looks pretty balmy in many areas after with the lakes low trapping the arctic air.
gfs_Td2m_us_22.png
 
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