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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

I hate to be a Debbie downer, but it’s gonna be hard to snow in this setup outside WNC around the mountains, this setup is driven by WAA associated with a southern stream wave, and the process that starts the CAD aloft/the sfc is what kills chances of snow (warm nose on top of cold shallow CAD dome, only was I see this trending to snow is if we all the sudden amp up the SE Canada trough a lot more and track the southern stream ULL south, or just get a weaker/flatter wave
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I hate to be a Debbie downer, but it’s gonna be hard to snow in this setup outside WNC around the mountains, this setup is driven by WAA associated with a southern stream wave, and the process that starts the CAD aloft/the sfc is what kills chances of snow (warm nose on top of cold shallow CAD dome, only was I see this trending to snow is if we all the sudden amp up the SE Canada trough a lot more and track the southern stream ULL south, or just get a weaker/flatter wave
Click to expand...
maybe a front end thump if were lucky
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I hate to be a Debbie downer, but it’s gonna be hard to snow in this setup outside WNC around the mountains, this setup is driven by WAA associated with a southern stream wave, and the process that starts the CAD aloft/the sfc is what kills chances of snow (warm nose on top of cold shallow CAD dome, only was I see this trending to snow is if we all the sudden amp up the SE Canada trough a lot more and track the southern stream ULL south, or just get a weaker/flatter wave
Click to expand...
Snow coming and going but definitely not for the vast majority, like most storms, would be my feel if the GFS came to verify.
 
The "over amped" GFS ended up handling the first event weeks back (with more zr) well versus other guidance. The whole time we had the debate about it being too amped and the low won't track North into CAD etc...

Well, the GFS scored and other guidance followed for the most part. The GFS has been solid IMO over all for us in the SE in this pattern. Just because it has lower h500 scores vs euro overall, it doesn't mean it's going to be the case for the weather we care about in our back yards.

One thing the GFS did/does do is underdo the CAD and erodes it too quickly. During the first event, it took it until almost 0 hour to start getting a grasp on what the temps/dews actually verified as.

With all of this said, all of the various models have scored/not scored in regards to specific areas.. and people tend to follow the models that give them Wintry weather... and remember how they performed for their back yard.. I'm just painting broad strokes of synoptic setup here.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I hate to be a Debbie downer, but it’s gonna be hard to snow in this setup outside WNC around the mountains, this setup is driven by WAA associated with a southern stream wave, and the process that starts the CAD aloft/the sfc is what kills chances of snow (warm nose on top of cold shallow CAD dome, only was I see this trending to snow is if we all the sudden amp up the SE Canada trough a lot more and track the southern stream ULL south, or just get a weaker/flatter wave
Click to expand...
I agree. The only way that I could see this being a good hit of pure snow would be if we had a few hours of strong FGEN forcing on the front end of precip to crash the column to give a few hours of snow….other than that this is probably sleet/ freezing rain for the Piedmont
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I hate to be a Debbie downer, but it’s gonna be hard to snow in this setup outside WNC around the mountains, this setup is driven by WAA associated with a southern stream wave, and the process that starts the CAD aloft/the sfc is what kills chances of snow (warm nose on top of cold shallow CAD dome, only was I see this trending to snow is if we all the sudden amp up the SE Canada trough a lot more and track the southern stream ULL south, or just get a weaker/flatter wave
Click to expand...
You need to phase the trailer or get a flatter wave of you want all snow in NC outside of the best climo areas anything in the middle is icy/bouncy
 
Due to the track and where it forms, I don’t think #temps will be a problem for Boone, Asheville, @BIG FROSTY but it will be about total precip starting to decline in the days ahead as it sorts favors just E of here maybe GSO areas. We can still thread the needle tho as seen on the gfs by slinging moisture back west but its something to monitor atm wouldn’t get too excited even tho temps are better back this way
 
Euro

500hv.conus.png


GFS

500hv.conus.png
 
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