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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

I'd really like to get to the 12z Friday run to have what's left over tx get sampled and analyzed. Obviously the models have a pretty good idea of what's going to happen but any more/less vorticity left behind really changes the outcome dramatically
 
probably trash but the arpege also amped up. So we have the nogaps,arpege,gfs all still showing a decent event at least... icon isn't horrible either and trending the right way.

I'm not saying we're sitting good right now but there is definitely a reason to hold on to some loyd christmas level hope.Screen Shot 2022-02-02 at 8.33.48 AM.png
 
Usually people would be jumping for joy that this storm is whiffing at this range .. we haven’t even gotten into NAM range and y’all cliff diving like there’s never been some positive trends back to a storm when we get closer .. not saying it’s a for sure thing but I don’t think it’s that bad to lose this thing south for now especially when the vort is not even in the US right now .. this thing got 90-100 hours to shimmy back our way .. or not .. but I won’t be cliff diving .. yet at least
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Usually people would be jumping for joy that this storm is whiffing at this range .. we haven’t even gotten into NAM range and y’all cliff diving like there’s never been some positive trends back to a storm when we get closer .. not saying it’s a for sure thing but I don’t think it’s that bad to lose this thing south for now especially when the vort is not even in the US right now .. this thing got 90-100 hours to shimmy back our way .. or not .. but I won’t be cliff diving .. yet at least
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Yeah I mean the 12z runs tomorrow should be helpful to get good idea to see what's moving south through the pnw and diving into the back of the trough, we want that wave stronger. Then the 12z Friday runs should have a good idea of the vort consolidation over Texas and how much gets sheared to the NE.
 
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rburrel2 said:
actually this fresh off the press SREF data is looking really juicy... Maybe we're about to get NAM'ed?
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Yeah, QPF is the only thing I look at the SREF for. Temperature profiles are trash on that ensemble. It's usually a good indicator of what the NAM is going to do as far as the QPF is concerned.
 
rburrel2 said:
actually this fresh off the press SREF data is looking really juicy... Maybe we're about to get NAM'ed?
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Yeah I have no doubt the NAM will throw us an amped up solution at some point, I just don't like the trend with the SS wave. A weak flat wave just isn't going to budge NW, if we get NW trends it's gonna be b/c that wave is stronger and tilts more neutral to neg. Also amped doesn't guarantee frozen precip, we're not dealing with a true arctic airmass and have a HP that is moving out. I'm not cliff diving as other's imply just not too enthused about this just yet lol
 
mrdaddyman said:
Just need to turn the NAM off after that last rug pull. It's replacement (FV3) did much better with that system.
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I will say even after the fail system here that went so far south a couple weeks back here, I'm not too sure this'll work out too. Not to be pessimistic but when a wave this small flattens out or shrinks, it usually doesn't come back. If it doesn't come back this suite and trend stronger the next 3 runs I'd just write this one off and expect nothing. Just watching it flatten out in a short range feels like a death sentence to this system honestly.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I will say even after the fail system here that went so far south a couple weeks back here, I'm not too sure this'll work out too. Not to be pessimistic but when a wave this small flattens out or shrinks, it usually doesn't come back. If it doesn't come back this suite and trend stronger the next 3 runs I'd just write this one off and expect nothing. Just watching it flatten out in a short range feels like a death sentence to this system honestly.
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Yeah, I kind of agree with this, from a trend perspective. We need to hope that H5 is not too suppressive out east and that the wave is a little stronger/holds together a little longer. Not out of the realm for sure, but it's a 6 to 5 and pick 'em at this point.
 
Nam is good that it separated the wave from the initial trough. It's so slow though that the trailer might cause some issues
 
SD said:
Nam is good that it separated the wave from the initial trough. It's so slow though that the trailer might cause some issues
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Not to mention the cold aloft associated with the northern stream is quickly exiting stage right and that weak wave isn't deep enough to generate much of it's own cold pool....

namconus_T850_us_fh72-84.gif

Bottom line is there are a lot of ways this one can fail, and only a very small margin for error with regards to timing/strength/track that would work for accumulating snow. Wintry slop with the in-situ cad has a wider window in the more favored climo cad areas for those so inclined.
 
Hypsometric said:
Not to mention the cold aloft associated with the northern stream is quickly exiting stage right and that weak wave isn't deep enough to generate much of it's own cold pool....

View attachment 112398

Bottom line is there are a lot of ways this one can fail, and only a very small margin for error with regards to timing/strength/track that would work for accumulating snow. Wintry slop with the in-situ cad has a wider window in the more favored climo cad areas for those so inclined.
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At least we'd have a little wiggle room wrt to wet bulbing but that's the only good i found lolnam_2022020212_084_35.32--79.06.png
 
SD said:
It was still close to closing it off in the 70s hours. I wouldn't punt yet, maybe if the 0zs come in just as unimpressive
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Oh I don't punt, I never punt as long as there is a coastal I'll always keep an eye on it and have some hope, with that said, the last 3 runs of the ICON were still garbage lol. But it's the ICON, it's been good, it's been bad
 
metwannabe said:
Oh I don't punt, I never punt as long as there is a coastal I'll always keep an eye on it and have some hope, with that said, the last 3 runs of the ICON were still garbage lol. But it's the ICON, it's been good, it's been bad
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Yeah it's not going to take a ton of help to try to fire a band of precip in the Carolinas but we need something more than a positive tilt wave axis. The good thing is we aren't too far away still
 
metwannabe said:
Oh I don't punt, I never punt as long as there is a coastal I'll always keep an eye on it and have some hope, with that said, the last 3 runs of the ICON were still garbage lol. But it's the ICON, it's been good, it's been bad
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and mostly wrong on both spectrums
 
Well it gets negative tilted , somehow and just in time to whip up a 1-3 event across parts of NC/SC


500hv.conus.png


sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
whatalife said:
It may be the GFS/GEFS and sure I would love for other models to come on board but to give up on this threat at this pt…IDKView attachment 112418
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I guess it depends on the definition of give up. I think that's a reasonable map of what could fall from the sky. Factor in warm ground, less than 10:1 ratios most likely and you basically can get a dusting to maybe a half inch or even one inch in a few lucky spots. I guess for snow-starved areas that haven't seen much, it's at least something. The ceiling for some larger event is all but gone though IMO.
 
People in Georgia and Carolinas would have been happy with that GEFS mean before the last couple of weeks. Still a signal, and I think the darker shades are where the ensemble is probably getting the better moisture return, versus losing the cold. #notdeadyet
 
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