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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

Stephenb888 said:
Do you think this is similar to the storm 3 weeks ago? Will the CAD be as strong as it was then?
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Snowpack to our north is worlds better than 3 weeks ago however we’re not seeing modeled mid 20’s deep into CAD regions which makes me a bit pessimistic for the upstate.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Snowpack to our north is worlds better than 3 weeks ago however we’re not seeing modeled mid 20’s deep into CAD regions which makes me a bit pessimistic for the upstate.
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Right, snowpack is kinda like a -NAO, you don't necessarily need it (so I've heard) but it sure helps when you do
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Verbatim, would be nice if we could get the cold in just a few hours earlier and a bit South to bring more in play here' that's a brutal cutoff. Might be able to do it too with the recent snowpack and the GSP bias.

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That hurts. I'm at no snow per this map... Are the models overall showing King NC (Stokes County) trending to snow or too early to say? Thx!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Snowpack to our north is worlds better than 3 weeks ago however we’re not seeing modeled mid 20’s deep into CAD regions which makes me a bit pessimistic for the upstate.
Click to expand...
Yeah I noticed. I was hoping maybe the snowpack to the north would compensate for that.
 
I've been on a model cleanse because my screen time report on Sunday showed I've scanned enough LED lights to kill a medieval peasant. So I was pretty surprised to see this system pop up on todays 12Z GFS. Initial thoughts are that there's still ample room for this to jump around due to its small wavelength- didn't really seem like any model had a tight grasp. Which is fine. To use last weeks blizzard as a model of scale, that was an aircraft carrier, this is one of those fiberglass boats they wheel out for the Americas Cup. This is the kind of storm that I think ensembles will probably be more useful than usual.
 
A lot of people have been mentioning the snowpack and the cold temps to the north. When the models initialize they DO take into account the surface temps. It's not like they don't see it. Now, I've said it many times, the models always have a hard time with the CAD, often underpredicting the strength of the low level cold air and the staying power.
 
Stephenb888 said:
Yeah I noticed. I was hoping maybe the snowpack to the north would compensate for that.
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It helps but you can have snowpack 6' deep to the north but if the high isn't in a place to deliver the cold dry airmass over that snowpack, it's useless. So while many of us talk about the snowpack helping, and it surely does, it's not the single factor that makes a CAD event stronger.
 
metwannabe said:
It helps but you can have snowpack 6' deep to the north but if the high isn't in a place to deliver the cold dry airmass over that snowpack, it's useless. So while many of us talk about the snowpack helping, and it surely does, it's not the single factor that makes a CAD event stronger.
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If the High was over PA that would be a different story huh?
 
SnowQueen said:
That hurts. I'm at no snow per this map... Are the models overall showing King NC (Stokes County) trending to snow or too early to say? Thx!
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Too far out to know anything. I wouldn’t make any assumptions for your location yet.
 
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