Very reminiscent to how extensive the snowpack was up there going into February 2004… a number of strong CADs set up from late January on and some weren’t even from highs all that strong… the 2/26-27 storm that year had a CAD high that was only 1030mb and not in the best location
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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
There’s definitely some differences at H5, but interestingly has a similar cutoff ridge around Siberia - the pattern overall this past jan has been similar to 2014 tho
Big ice storm on the end of that ICON run
ICON 00z says I hope you like ice storms 
Yeah that’s how you get a ice storm. 
That wedge is so underdone! Wow! I can see.this going back into Eastern AL.
Southern stream wave that gets left behind in the 4 corners looks much more consolidated this GFS run, like the icon ??
GFS is still so weak with the southern stream wave over OK. has the overall look favorable for CAD with that trough approaching SE can, and high pressure following 
GFS develops precip but when the high is already moving out. but it’s slow with the progression of the southern stream and instead gets energy out of Canada which mucks things up. given how progressive the pattern is, we’re having to thread the needle with SS wave placement and high pressure
Yeah ICON would be a mess but we've seen this before I believe so of course I'm skeptical
Euro, whiff
Lifted ceiling potential, not virga. a lot of players on the field for next weekend.
RAH keeping an eye on the potential:
Saturday and Sunday: The upper trough over the Great Lakes will
progress through the Northeast and mid-Atlantic on Saturday while
the cutoff low over the southern Plains begins to move eastward.
Another northern stream wave will move east along the Canadian
border and into the Great Lakes Sat night/Sun, potentially picking
up the southern stream wave over the TN Valley on Sun as it does. At
the surface, high pressure will build into the area from a 1040 mb
high moving through the Northeast Sat and Sun. A coastal low could
develop off the FL coast and lift northeast Sun night into Mon. The
southern stream wave and coastal low could be the focus for some
additional precipitation over the Carolinas Sun/Sun night, but it is
too early to speculate if, where, when and what type of precip it
will be.
Saturday and Sunday: The upper trough over the Great Lakes will
progress through the Northeast and mid-Atlantic on Saturday while
the cutoff low over the southern Plains begins to move eastward.
Another northern stream wave will move east along the Canadian
border and into the Great Lakes Sat night/Sun, potentially picking
up the southern stream wave over the TN Valley on Sun as it does. At
the surface, high pressure will build into the area from a 1040 mb
high moving through the Northeast Sat and Sun. A coastal low could
develop off the FL coast and lift northeast Sun night into Mon. The
southern stream wave and coastal low could be the focus for some
additional precipitation over the Carolinas Sun/Sun night, but it is
too early to speculate if, where, when and what type of precip it
will be.
The time where we want a more amped southern stream wave, it wants to be sheared out. But in any other situation it would be amped. We need it to be quick and amped. I truly hope we don’t waste a upper 1030s/1040 high on a dry cold day 
SnowNiner
Member
I'm a bit surprised there's a thread for this time period so early. Especially with the models being so hit and miss and being a week out. Pattern has been to hold STJ energy back in the SW so far so I'd say that's likely to happen again IMO.
Still a couple of big hits for the deep south on the GEFS for Sunday.
Broken024
Member
Aleet aleet
