Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

[over9000]

For sure CAD signature

 

[KyloG]

What is the GFS doing here...

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

GFS coming in much colder.

 

[Broken024]

Icy

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Icy
View attachment 111918

That’s a classic textbook CAD wedge

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Umm

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Umm View attachment 111925View attachment 111926View attachment 111927

Worrisome for two reasons.
1) Globals showing such a strong wedge at this lead time.
2) Surface temps actually get colder as the storm goes on versus rushing out.

 

[$alt]

If it’s classic then you best believe 85 corridor will be the rain line. Unless it’s an unusually strong CAD

You were just saying there was nothing to track. Now you're tracking and already setting up some farce about I-85 being a rain line, when past history has shown, the CAD is usually underdone. The run of the GFS would verify cooler further South, if anything.

Edit: The GFS is likely too progressive in the North and scurrying the High pressure out too quickly anyways.

 

[BullCityWx]

It'll be interesting to see what the canadian shows, given it's preference by several forecast offices for the forecasting of CAD events.

 

[BullCityWx]

fwiw

 

[over9000]

You were just saying there was nothing to track. Now you're tracking and already setting up some farce about I-85 being a rain line, when past history has shown, the CAD is usually underdone. The run of the GFS would verify cooler further South, if anything.

Edit: The GFS is likely too progressive in the North and scurrying the High pressure out too quickly anyways.

Yup, High location is not ideal and Low in the Canada will flood the area with WAA and Rain.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol wow, even if we in-situ CAD this setup there would probably be a solid ZR footprint, 1041 ?!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yup, High location is not ideal and Low in the Canada will flood the area with WAA and Rain.

Like Shawn said earlier the GFS tends to move high pressure out too fast and CAD always ends up stronger than modeled this far out.. if it’s already showing a bigger type of ice event I would start paying attention if you live anywhere in the CAD regions

 

[over9000]

Like Shawn said earlier the GFS tends to move high pressure out too fast and CAD always ends up stronger than modeled this far out.. if it’s already showing a bigger type of ice event I would start paying attention if you live anywhere in the CAD regions

Good Point

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS has a deeper trough sliding east into SE Canada with a stronger high pressure following, it’s really the southern stream that has my concern right now

 

[Metwannabe]

Probably can't overstate the massive snowpack to our NE, how models evolve over the coming days is critical.... we've been burned I know but hard to not start noticing a serious CAD icing event potential on the horizon.

 

[$alt]

A faster wave would lead to some serious problems, like, big time. Something to watch.

 

[WxGSO]

Yup, High location is not ideal and Low in the Canada will flood the area with WAA and Rain.

What??? That's why it is a CAD, the mountains block the low level cold air but plenty of moisture will be transported over top. Granted, the high is sliding out to sea, but with as much cold air there is, that really shouldn't be an issue.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

our source region for the damming high in the NE ??

 

[$alt]

I love the last frame personally; off it's rocker eroding that CAD so quickly.