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Deleted member 1449
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Looks good
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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Looks good
Boy that is icon-ish
iGRXY
Member
Know where this is going.
We’re cooking boys 
1042 feeder high in NY with a 1036 meso on top of Roxboro. Even another high down in Alabama. Wedge much?
Not good!!! Were overdue for a bad ice storm imo. All that snow pack to our north will make the cad stronger.
I'm not sure that's a meso high in Roxboro. But nonetheless, the wedge is strong. Hopefully, the storm system is there and not parked or strung out out west.
iGRXY
Member
Ice storm potential is through the roof
Just wow. That is a massive change even at this range.
And, this seems more than just noise considering other modeling while not as extreme has indeed trended in this direction.
NCSNOW
Member
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European family/ cousins: Icon, Euro, Ukmet continue the theme of that 540 line way further south than the GFS. Canadian should be included with the Euro Icon and Ukmet, although it would be furthest north of the 4.
GFS is all the way up in PA.
GFS is all the way up in PA.
The timing on this seems to be getting pushed back run by run.
If we get a stronger southern stream wave that’s more dominant and weaken the stuff behind it but keep it to where the flow doesn’t get to stagnant, there’s gonna be a damaging ice storm somewhere 
iGRXY
Member
Notice how the Euro traps the Low pressure over the Great Lakes. This is exactly the type of CAD we'd be dealing with. GFS is pushing it out too quickly due to being too progressive. It's a bias, nothing new here.
Yeah keep pushing it back and our CAD high will be gone, left with some onset ice to rain but I'd wager precip gets here a little earlier than advertised. Plenty of details to iron out over the coming days, either way might have another to track
We’re slowing down the SE Canada vortex and attendant subsidence behind it as well
Yep, the trend has been slower than advertised at D5+. This one doesn't seem like a very big deal to me. The High isn't going to remain anchored and the southern system is probably going to be slow getting here. Like you said, onset slop to rain. May be a bigger deal in the western piedmont into VA, but we need a faster storm or confluence to remain in place. Otherwise, it won't be a very big deal.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
You don’t even need ATMS 101 to know where this one is heading.
Where?