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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

1042 feeder high in NY with a 1036 meso on top of Roxboro. Even another high down in Alabama. Wedge much?
I'm not sure that's a meso high in Roxboro. But nonetheless, the wedge is strong. Hopefully, the storm system is there and not parked or strung out out west.
 
Past three 12z runs of the EURO .. last image is todays … wow CAD trending stronger I’m shocked ?View attachment 111954
Just wow. That is a massive change even at this range.

And, this seems more than just noise considering other modeling while not as extreme has indeed trended in this direction.
 
European family/ cousins: Icon, Euro, Ukmet continue the theme of that 540 line way further south than the GFS. Canadian should be included with the Euro Icon and Ukmet, although it would be furthest north of the 4.
GFS is all the way up in PA.
 
fram_acc.us_state_nc_va.png
 
Notice how the Euro traps the Low pressure over the Great Lakes. This is exactly the type of CAD we'd be dealing with. GFS is pushing it out too quickly due to being too progressive. It's a bias, nothing new here.
 
The timing on this seems to be getting pushed back run by run.
Yeah keep pushing it back and our CAD high will be gone, left with some onset ice to rain but I'd wager precip gets here a little earlier than advertised. Plenty of details to iron out over the coming days, either way might have another to track
 
Yeah keep pushing it back and our CAD high will be gone, left with some onset ice to rain but I'd wager precip gets here a little earlier than advertised. Plenty of details to iron out over the coming days, either way might have another to track
Yep, the trend has been slower than advertised at D5+. This one doesn't seem like a very big deal to me. The High isn't going to remain anchored and the southern system is probably going to be slow getting here. Like you said, onset slop to rain. May be a bigger deal in the western piedmont into VA, but we need a faster storm or confluence to remain in place. Otherwise, it won't be a very big deal.
 
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