Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

[SnowNiner]

Horrible 18z run. Quick ice to cold rain. Yuck. Toss.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Horrible 18z run. Quick ice to cold rain. Yuck. Toss.

Still looked good to me. MSLP was arguably even better than 12z. Difference I saw was our piece of energy swung through more neutral/positive as opposed to going a bit negative at 12z.

 

[rburrel2]

Horrible 18z run. Quick ice to cold rain. Yuck. Toss.

IMO, it's a great run, because the model consensus has this storm more likely to fringe us to the south/suppression. GFS is on the far end of guidance with an amped/warmer solution.. if it loses that and starts showing suppression we're at serious risk of losing the storm all together. Seems like nearly every storm this winter has trended that way... so i'll continue to root for these amped runs in the medium term.

 

[NCSNOW]

18z gfs has moved 540 line down to Maryland from Central PA. Baby steps, still the outlier. Loves that GL low, screwing the thermals up. Still manages ice in western NC.
Ill bet its lTs late week before it gets this right.

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[LukeBarrette]

18z gfs has moved 540 line down to Maryland from Central PA. Baby steps, still the outlier. Loves that GL low, screwing the thermals up. Still manages ice in western NC.
Ill bet its lTs late week before it gets this right.

True at least it gives me snow this run instead of sleet to start. Baby steps

 

[CaryWx]

Lakes low

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Horrible 18z run. Quick ice to cold rain. Yuck. Toss.

Favorable timing run tho esp for your area it’s after dark into Monday morning. I would say that’s winter storm warning criteria too. That 32 will slowly change into 27 as we get closer…most likely.

 

[Jessy89]

View attachment 112021

Anyone have the individual members


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[over9000]

Lakes low

3 things you can count on in life. Death, Taxes, and Lake Low's.

 

[accu35]

I’m not sure I buy this

 

[Ron Burgundy]

View attachment 112050I’m not sure I buy this

Intriguing. Seems like a strong signal given the lack of precip north and south. But I’m a weenie so…

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Probably a ice storm this icon run

 

[$alt]

Looks like the high slips far away per 00z Icon. Nice little system seems to form off the SC coast, though. Maybe some early snow in NC/Upstate. Maybe still ZR in NC?

 

[Jessy89]

Icon actually showing snow north of 85 in upstate sc. 18z Sunday


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[Myfrotho704_]

I thought there was gonna be more precip with the way the SS looked on the icon. Guess we need a deeper cutoff

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Also the SE can vortex was faster and weaker which results in less cold for the CAD high to feed

 

[$alt]

The Icon's depiction of the coastal is BARELY considered low pressure. In fact, it's not until it's well towards the Mid-Atlantic.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This might be interesting

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Definitely Very interesting, ice/IP in the mid 20s… sheesh