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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

SnowNiner said:
GSP leans toward whiffers. Tosses GFS.

As of 250 PM EST Tuesday: Despite good model agreement and
increasing confidence in the short range, run to run and model
differences creating a low confidence forecast in the medium range.
The northern stream wave from the short term speeds by to our north
Saturday as the southern stream wave moves east. The GFS has a
stronger wave crossing the area Saturday night and early Sunday
while the ECMWF is weaker. Both models show cyclogenesis off the
southeastern coast, but the GFS is stronger and closer to the coast
initially and as it moves up the coast through Sunday. The ECMWF and
Canadian are weaker and farther off shore. The GFS has much more
precip with quite a wintry mix over the CWFA while the ECMWF and
Canadian shower little in the way of precip with only the smallest
potential for any wintry precip. The GFS is a cold and wet outlier,
the coldest and wettest of all the ensemble members for much of the
CWFA. The GEFS mean is much drier and warmer. Therefore, the
operational GFS much be taken with a huge grain of salt. Have gone
with the model blend forecast which has a chance of mostly rain for
most of the area. Temps near normal Saturday then below normal
Sunday. Of course, this bears watching as we get closer in time.

The guidance then shows a phasing split stream system developing
Monday and moving east of the area Tuesday. As with the first one,
the GFS is stronger with the upper waves and the resulting
cyclogenesis off the southeast coast but not as strong. The ECMWF
and Canadian show a weaker system with even less effect on our
weather. As with the first system, went with the guidance blend
which keeps a dry forecast for our area. Temps rise to near normal
Monday then drop a couple of degrees for Tuesday
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Not sure GSP is taking the best path. Would be a good idea not to dismiss it so easily. My point and click shows 30% chance of rain with a high of 42. Having a little trouble buying that one. Guess time will tell.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Not sure GSP is taking the best path. Would be a good idea not to dismiss it so easily. My point and click shows 30% chance of rain with a high of 42. Having a little trouble buying that one. Guess time will tell.
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If the precip gets back our way we'll see some type of frozen more than likely.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Not sure GSP is taking the best path. Would be a good idea not to dismiss it so easily. My point and click shows 30% chance of rain with a high of 42. Having a little trouble buying that one. Guess time will tell.
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GSP is going to take the most conservative route possible. Find the solution that shows nothing or rain and that's what they go with until it's blatantly a sure fire thing that something is going to happen. Good approach here but them saying it really holds no weight as that is their stance on any potential winter storm.
 
iGRXY said:
GSP is going to take the most conservative route possible. Find the solution that shows nothing or rain and that's what they go with until it's blatantly a sure fire thing that something is going to happen. Good approach here but them saying it really holds no weight as that is their stance on any potential winter storm.
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Something I didn’t really understand from GSP’s discussion is them saying the GEFS is much warmer than the Op. I went and looked and the mean is fairly close to the Op on surface temps Sunday
 
The flow is so zonal ahead of the shortwave it's shredded. H5 was more consistent from the 12z. Could be zeroing in now. Looks pretty balmy in many areas after with the lakes low trapping the arctic air.
gfs_Td2m_us_22.png
 
over9000 said:
The flow is so zonal ahead of the shortwave it's shredded. H5 was more consistent from the 12z. Could be zeroing in now. Looks pretty balmy in many areas after with the lakes low trapping the arctic air.
gfs_Td2m_us_22.png
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Yes it’s getting warm after. We know that dude.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Models agree on placement really good right now, unbelievablly good. But the need and want in this setup is clear, need a more amped/closed off system that’s better tiltedView attachment 112247View attachment 112248
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Trough was more negative tilted in 12z. This time it cutoff and was neutral. These weak SW's are hard sometimes. The NAO really screwed this winter up. Could have been 2010 easily if the NAO cooperated.
 
FYI, there was a weak dampening out cutoff shortwave last night that gave precip to the texas/la coast... I went back and looked at all the model runs for it in the 84-120hr timeframe and the GFS/Euro were pretty good at nailing down the precip...there were a few runs where both models were a little to dry on the northern fringe euro was more so. ICON was way to suppressed and dry... CMC was actually furthest north with precip(too far north), but it had the 5h evolution wrong.

What does that all mean? I dunno probably nothing. This is going to be a coin flip. cross your fingers.
 
i see why other models disagree with the gfs hell merry solutions. I circled where the storm starts to form and the low rides offshore. The purple line can easily get smacked IF in these last minute formations. The yellow X is pulling a hell merry way too far west with the system barely forming in time and riding offshore it goes against history to see that much qpf as you get to i77 altho it can happen you really need the GOM alive starting back in Texas not directly over you (Florida) or you can easily get shadowed in precip mins near and east of the Appalachians. FF1407EC-61FD-4B54-848A-0D1F172D2D18.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
i see why other models disagree with the gfs hell merry solutions. I circled where the storm starts to form and the low rides offshore. The purple line can easily get smacked IF in these last minute formations. The yellow X is pulling a hell merry way too far west with the system barely forming in time and riding offshore it goes against history to see that much qpf as you get to i77 altho it can happen you really need the GOM alive starting back in Texas not directly over you (Florida) or you can easily get shadowed in precip mins near and east of the Appalachians. View attachment 112250
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Good analysis but I think you misspelled "Hail Mary." Or maybe not. It wasn't clear.
 
BullCityWx said:
You either don’t know what you’re talking about or you are bargaining in bad faith.
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LOL I'm not a weenie and have to look at things on both sides. I am a Meteorologist. I don't give my employers weenie forecasts, because that's unethical and unprofessional. Take a look at GSP's discussion please.
 
Not ruling out winter wx along the western fringe, I’m just seeing a lot of warnings shots that this could be a great storm for Greensboro and maybe Raleigh too! Of course I want winter weather and could wish cast with the gfs but I’m trying to be right and forecast folks bare with us this week and we get closer and can pinpoint these lower qpf boundaries.
 
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