Stephenb888
Member
Do you think this is similar to the storm 3 weeks ago? Will the CAD be as strong as it was then?
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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
GEFS looks better. more GLs ridging, and more separation between the Baja wave and our SS wave. Only issue is. Our southern stream wave is still so weak on the mean 
Snowpack to our north is worlds better than 3 weeks ago however we’re not seeing modeled mid 20’s deep into CAD regions which makes me a bit pessimistic for the upstate.
GFS is a warm outlier in the mid levels to its ensembles 
Not the same pattern but some March 60 type stuff lol
Right, snowpack is kinda like a -NAO, you don't necessarily need it (so I've heard) but it sure helps when you do
That hurts. I'm at no snow per this map... Are the models overall showing King NC (Stokes County) trending to snow or too early to say? Thx!Verbatim, would be nice if we could get the cold in just a few hours earlier and a bit South to bring more in play here' that's a brutal cutoff. Might be able to do it too with the recent snowpack and the GSP bias.
Stephenb888
Member
Yeah I noticed. I was hoping maybe the snowpack to the north would compensate for that.
I'm interested. I expect 32.5 and rain here which means 34.0 and rain by you. Now, if we can get that H5 ULL a little stronger and a little further south, it's game on
Banger of a run for WNC. Strengthen that wave a bit more and they’re flirting with yet another big snow. 
I've been on a model cleanse because my screen time report on Sunday showed I've scanned enough LED lights to kill a medieval peasant. So I was pretty surprised to see this system pop up on todays 12Z GFS. Initial thoughts are that there's still ample room for this to jump around due to its small wavelength- didn't really seem like any model had a tight grasp. Which is fine. To use last weeks blizzard as a model of scale, that was an aircraft carrier, this is one of those fiberglass boats they wheel out for the Americas Cup. This is the kind of storm that I think ensembles will probably be more useful than usual.
A lot of people have been mentioning the snowpack and the cold temps to the north. When the models initialize they DO take into account the surface temps. It's not like they don't see it. Now, I've said it many times, the models always have a hard time with the CAD, often underpredicting the strength of the low level cold air and the staying power.
It helps but you can have snowpack 6' deep to the north but if the high isn't in a place to deliver the cold dry airmass over that snowpack, it's useless. So while many of us talk about the snowpack helping, and it surely does, it's not the single factor that makes a CAD event stronger.
It sure appears we have another legit storm to track. This has been an amazing year and I don't think we'll be done, even after this one.
If the High was over PA that would be a different story huh?
Wedge isn’t anywhere close to 3 weeks ago. Very meh looking at DP’s.
Would help if it wasn't transitory as well.
Yikea 
Yep. Difference between this and the one that produced in early January was the big 50/50.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Too far out to know anything. I wouldn’t make any assumptions for your location yet.
Call me Debbie but frozen precip will not be that far east with that slp track
GEFS with a stronger SE can trough/more amped ridge axis east of the GLs for descent and a stronger Damming high, and shortened wavelengths 
Would like to see the northern stream wave slow down, or the southern wave speed up, but you know how that's been going this year.
Correct.Call me Debbie but frozen precip will not be that far east with that slp track
RDUHeatIsland
Member
It'll be interesting to see how the arctic front event verifies. Currently the GFS is a southern/colder outlier with the heaviest axis of snow from the Catskills through Massachusetts, while the Euro/CMC/RGEM position it further north running through the Adirondacks. A southern track would certainly have at least some minor impacts on the snowpack/CAD strength.
It'll also be a test for the GFS which honestly has performed pretty poorly in the 2-4 day range for recent events in the NE.
It'll also be a test for the GFS which honestly has performed pretty poorly in the 2-4 day range for recent events in the NE.
Heelyes
Member
Snow for me and rain for moncure looks right.Call me Debbie but frozen precip will not be that far east with that slp track
Mean temps on GEFS during the bulk of the event is in the 20s from CLT-GSO-RAH
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks like UK has snow and ice. Much colder this run
Clem282340
Member
What does the temps look like in the mountains upstate and Georgia
Lol the Ukie was one of the warmest models during the first CAD event only bringing me down to 27/28, it’s not great with wedges at all, and hasn’t been good in general, it’s honestly been terrible this winter
Well now, fire up the thread boys................................. oh wait
It helps that the low is weaker than past storms. Doesnt amplify the warm nose enough to go all rain. Not good for ice though.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Tried to tell ya where this was headed….Well now, fire up the thread boys................................. oh wait
Actually you never gave a location only stated CAD but I digress
Hypsometric
Member
Good stuff.Well now, fire up the thread boys................................. oh wait
Sleeeet
The GEM looked solid with the placement on top with the SE can vortex/ridge axis , but the southern stream wave was so weak 
Hypsometric
Member
I doubt it with 925s that warm (added those a second later).
Okay, no need to go vote anymore guys. The results are overwhelming to the old style and it has been reverted.
Haha whoops! Those pesky mid levels again.