Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

[SnowNiner]

I'm not sure that's a meso high in Roxboro. But nonetheless, the wedge is strong. Hopefully, the storm system is there and not parked or strung out out west.

Yes. CAD signal is certainly there and showing up (hope it stays). But really not convinced yet this isn't a strung out mess like the last two. All the models at least showing something getting into the Carolinas is a start. Just can't depend on NW trends/amps this year it seems. Everything has been very progressive.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Where?

CAD winter event

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We’re slowing down everything. Not just the SS wave. The cad high and SE can vortex as well is slowing/amping, this is actually a favorable trend to a hybrid/classical CAD setup

 

[superjames1992]

CAD winter event

I thought you were going to say Iowa.

 

[GaWx]

1042 feeder high in NY with a 1036 meso on top of Roxboro. Even another high down in Alabama. Wedge much?

The 12Z Euro has ZR down below Sylvania, GA! The 1042 feeder high SLP in the NE would actually be slightly stronger than the ones for the two previous strong SE wedge/wintry wx events. The Euro’s 2M temps though possibly slightly too cold due to cold bias over snowcover, is regardless implying about as cold a feeder high as for the prior two, which is interesting because those other two were the coldest there in several years. So, three of the coldest NE parent highs in several years almost back to back to back per this Euro. Accompanying that on the run are 850s that dip to -16C NYC to Philly to Baltimore, which would be plenty cold vs history to give the SE a CAD induced winter storm. Thus this does look like a potential big deal for especially the main CAD regions.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The 12Z Euro has ZR down below Sylvania, GA! The 1042 feeder high SLP in the NE would actually be slightly stronger than the ones for the two previous strong SE wedge/wintry wx events. The Euro’s 2M temps though possibly slightly too cold due to cold bias over snowcover, is regardless implying about as cold a feeder high as for the prior two, which is interesting because those other two were the coldest there in several years. So, three of the coldest NE parent highs in several years almost back to back to back per this Euro. Accompanying that on the run are 850s that dip to -16C NYC to Philly to Baltimore, which would be plenty cold vs history to give the SE a CAD induced winter storm. Thus this does look like a potential big deal for especially the main CAD regions.

It’s amazing what we can do when the PV drops down into Canada for an entire month. You’re never out of the game. Warmups will always be short lived with the coldest air on the planet so close by.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We’re slowing down everything. Not just the SS wave. The cad high and SE can vortex as well is slowing/amping, this is actually a favorable trend to a hybrid/classical CAD setup View attachment 111968View attachment 111969

50/50ish low jamming the flow/reenforcing and holding our high in place. ?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

50/50ish low jamming the flow/reenforcing and holding our high in place. ?

The low pressure (lakes low?) also hanging back. High pressure dominated to our north per modeling.

 

[$alt]

The low pressure (lakes low?) also hanging back. High pressure dominated to our north per modeling.

It gets trapped per Euro.

 

[GaWx]

 

[GaWx]

It’s amazing what we can do when the PV drops down into Canada for an entire month. You’re never out of the game. Warmups will always be short lived with the coldest air on the planet so close by.

This would be the 4th significant Carolina wintry event within 3 weeks. You have to go back to January of 2000 for the last time to have that happen, well before most wx BB’s got started.

 

[MichaelJ]

JB says nothing south of mid-Va in the SE. Possible parts of Tenn (W) sleet/zr, maybe a little ice in far NW Miss.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

JB says nothing south of mid-Va in the SE. Possible parts of Tenn (W) sleet/zr, maybe a little ice in far NW Miss.

I’d say he’s talking about this mid week event about to take place.

 

[GaWx]

Mainly for entertainment since it is a bad model, but since nobody posted it: the 12Z JMA implies a coastal with heaviest precip along the SE coast and ZR likely pretty far SE/not far from the coast similar to the event from a week ago. But in following the JMA, I have found it to be quite SE biased on the surface low track/cold biased as a result just like it has been recently. So, I’d expect NW shifts if it were to maintain the low offshore the SE coast from this outlier prediction:

Surface/H5:


850 temperatures imply any precip would be mainly cold rain or ZR for anything near the NE FL/GA/SC coast and not snow and mainly sleet/ZR for SE NC




Most of this qpf along and offshore the SE coast is from this coastal:

 

[GaWx]

And now to go from one bad model to another:

This is especially for @Rain Cold , who loves me posting the CFS ?:

You have to look hard, but the 12Z CFS does show snow on the NW fringe of this from Augusta to Fayetteville, NC (this implies snow likely back NW to southern Atlanta metro to Athens to southern SC upstate to Charlotte on northern side):



What’s weird is that it shows no sleet or ZR even with wedging though the wedge is weakening and exiting quickly.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ICON cooled the mid levels this run even more

 

[iGRXY]

ICON also looked like it was going to be faster.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Southern stream a issue this GFS run

 

[Jessy89]

Still the Gfs in the early part around 18z Sunday would be colder then what’s being shown. Because of snow pack to our north


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[ATLwxfan]

Still the Gfs in the early part around 18z Sunday would be colder then what’s being shown. Because of snow pack to our north


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Does snowpack not already factor into the algorithms?


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