Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

[iGRXY]

Big takeaways:

CAD is already being shown pretty stout at this lead time which is very unheard of.
1040 HP over all that snow pack and realistically the temps are likely in the low to mid 20's.
GFS is awful with CAD so for it to be showing something already is a big alert to me as of right now.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is Taking the direction towards a CAD event at H5, really close this run

 

[Hypsometric]

I love the last frame personally; off it's rocker eroding that CAD so quickly.

View attachment 111934

The parent surface high is centered way offshore and winds are out of the southeast even up in the northeast. That's nothing more than insitu CAD at this point, and without a continual supply of cold air, WAA plus top down erosion from 30kt+ winds just above the wedge will easily erode it. The GFS depiction might be off by a few hours, but it would erode without a doubt if this setup verified.

 

[Mitch West]

IF this continues to show up consistently in the coming days. I'd bet a good bit that the CAD would be significantly underdone by models due to a massive snowpack to the North. This would be your classic example late this weekend. Especially with another storm about to hit late this week to our NE. If you want a Winter storm, pulling for the storm before this threat is what you would want to do.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

GEFS looks like snow to ice verbatim.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[BullCityWx]

GEFS looks like snow to ice verbatim.

Was just gonna say it looked like classic carolina storm - Snow to IP to ZR.

 

[BullCityWx]

ukie looked threatening at 144

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah that was headed for ice, perhaps more in-situ tho

 

[NCSNOW]

Add to Fro's post

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yeah. Source region is a lock. If we’re feeding cold air over that snowpack to our north it’s got the potential to be ugly. Temps not super cold deep into wedge territory as modeled right now but this is something that is probably under modeled right now and we’d almost certainly have a meso high involved. I guess the thing to watch is that ridging in the Atlantic which can turn out stronger and we rain.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

definitely a step to a CAD setup on the 12z CMCE

 

[Flotown]

Boy am I confused about this timeframe

 

[BullCityWx]

definitely a step to a CAD setup on the 12z CMCEView attachment 111944

 

[ATLwxfan]

So in summary it’s ice or it’s rain. One or the other. Maybe a little of both.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BelmontWX79]

Even if this does go in-situ as the GFS shows the bulk of the precip will likely have already fallen once temps go above freezing and the damage has been done.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Normally the Cmce is cold biased but the H5 setup is there

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Past three 12z runs of the EURO .. last image is todays … wow CAD trending stronger I’m shocked ?

 

[iGRXY]

Incoming on the EURO

 

[whatalife]