Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Meso high in VA locking it in too. That’s key.
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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Definitely went more neutral tilt that run.
Charlotte lights out 
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Thought sleet would save day. Thats national Guard activation material there
Last edited:
Back and forth back and forth with the tilt.
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925s quickly warmed this run, the problem with this setup is, the GL ridge is linked to the southeast ridge. It’s a furnace aloft
Just let me pretend this is snow
atp I think it’s just whether the S/S will progress and tilt more favorable or feel more influence from the baggy Baja trough. stronger/quicker = lights out, SS seems like the biggest fail factor in this setupBack and forth back and forth with the tilt.View attachment 112077 ?
NCSNOW
Member
Yep good ole GL Low. We'll get the neutral tilt this time, mark it down. After 2 straight shots with perfect conditions upstairs.
Can’t draw up a ice storm any better then this. So much SER that it torches 850s/925s but enough lower heights in SE can/CAD to filter shallow Arctic air 
Clem282340
Member
Could Atlanta and ne Georgia be in play here as well or the height pressure is not strong enough to reach ne Georgia or Atlanta
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The ole low popping in the gulf on a stalled arctic front!
Stephenb888
Member
NE Georgia is possible but idk if it’s strong enough to reach ATL. Maybe with all the snowpack to the north…
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks to be a less suppressed CMC run coming in. Energy back west is closed and further north this run.
Sheesh roxboro is close to scoring with this arctic front 
Clem282340
Member
I know most of the time the temperatures are always under done
Not enough support on ensembles to say this is a real threat yet .. but the base is set certainly .. how fast does that wave eject into our region if at all is the key
Nice event on the euro
And just like that, GFS now showing sig. event for the Troutman area with temps in the 20s and still trending colder. Early morning Sunday event.
From RAH:
Saturday through Monday: The upper trough to the north will progress
through the Northeast and on Saturday while the cutoff low over the
southern Plains begins to move eastward. Another northern stream
wave will move east along the Canadian border and into the Great
Lakes Sat night/Sun, amplifying the trough south into the Plains and
potentially picking up the southern stream wave over the TN Valley
on Sun as it does. The southern stream wave will likely pick up some
Gulf moisture as it moves through the Southeast and Carolinas
Sun/Sun night. At the surface, high pressure will ridge southward
into the area from a strong high moving through the Northeast Sat
and Sun. A coastal low will develop along/off the FL/GA coast Sun
and lift northeast along the East Coast Sun night and Mon. The
southern stream wave and coastal low could be the focus for some
additional precipitation over the Carolinas Sun/Mon. While it is
still a bit early to be specific about where, when and what type of
precip will occur, non-liquid precipitation is possible.
Saturday through Monday: The upper trough to the north will progress
through the Northeast and on Saturday while the cutoff low over the
southern Plains begins to move eastward. Another northern stream
wave will move east along the Canadian border and into the Great
Lakes Sat night/Sun, amplifying the trough south into the Plains and
potentially picking up the southern stream wave over the TN Valley
on Sun as it does. The southern stream wave will likely pick up some
Gulf moisture as it moves through the Southeast and Carolinas
Sun/Sun night. At the surface, high pressure will ridge southward
into the area from a strong high moving through the Northeast Sat
and Sun. A coastal low will develop along/off the FL/GA coast Sun
and lift northeast along the East Coast Sun night and Mon. The
southern stream wave and coastal low could be the focus for some
additional precipitation over the Carolinas Sun/Mon. While it is
still a bit early to be specific about where, when and what type of
precip will occur, non-liquid precipitation is possible.
over9000
Member
The trend to a rainstorm is clear on the GFS. Hopefully it reverses.
HurricaneSolomon
Member
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One thing is for sure at least for now... most of my weather apps actually show the potential for something frozen. WRAL has also made at least a mention of it.
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over9000
Member
weather apps use model runs, not the other way around.
NCSNOW
Member
6z GFS continues the Doomsday scenerio: Think ole RC jackpots on this one. Congrats
0z euro looked a lot like yesterday's icon. It'll be interesting to see if things move toward the gfs or if the gfs is over amplified
over9000
Member
Freezing is a exothermic process meaning heat is released in the process. This is not the DP's you want to see to if you want winter weather6z GFS continues the Doomsday scenerio: Think ole RC jackpots on this one. Congrats
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
You realize that after 6+ hours of ice right? Lol. It’s going to switch to rain dude.Freezing is a exothermic process meaning heat is released in the process. This is not the DP's you want to see to if you want winter weather
Stephenb888
Member
Looks like the CAD was less here. Almost out of SC.6z GFS continues the Doomsday scenerio: Think ole RC jackpots on this one. Congrats
iGRXY
Member
GFS is probably the worst global known to man when dealing with CAD. Erodes it too fast, forces LP into it instead of pivoting around the CAD dome, and it’s progressive bias moves HP out too fast.Freezing is a exothermic process meaning heat is released in the process. This is not the DP's you want to see to if you want winter weather
over9000
Member
That's taking the run verbatim, which won't happen in reality. I anticipate the winter time frame shrinking with every consecutive run as the lakes low becoming stronger as noted already in the 06z GEFS.
over9000
Member
UKMET shows the same solution.
The 06z euro looked better with the trough and high following that would have resulted in damming, but the southern stream wave had more interaction with the Baja ULL, resulting in a weak and Garbo southern stream wave
NCSNOW
Member
Almost everyone on here understands the pros and cons of Cad, latent heat release, dew points ,wetbulbing, fill in the blank etc.
No one takes a 120 hour model run, espeacilly GFS as gospel. All we do is watch the runs,discuss and move on to the next cycle. All part of the tracking hobby. Just because a clown map gets posted or discussed half hazzardly most of the time, doesnt mean folks are saying thats exactly whats going to happen or not happen.
No one takes a 120 hour model run, espeacilly GFS as gospel. All we do is watch the runs,discuss and move on to the next cycle. All part of the tracking hobby. Just because a clown map gets posted or discussed half hazzardly most of the time, doesnt mean folks are saying thats exactly whats going to happen or not happen.
MichaelJ
Member
GFS and UKMET is am unusual combination for winter events and I would not put a lot of weight on it. If the EURO and UKMET agree then you have something solid to go on
Good, as long as it trends away from the crazy GFS solution
We’re having the same battle as the first winter storm, with the Baja ULL trying to shear our southern stream wave, this time the flow in the SW is slowed even more, so there’s a better chance of interference
Im honestly way more concerned about this then a faster SE can vortex and high moving out quick
I miss the big ice by literally 2 miles on that map.6z GFS continues the Doomsday scenerio: Think ole RC jackpots on this one. Congrats
It's way overdone, regardless.
As far as the threat goes, all we can really say is that there's a threat for some wintry weather for portions of the SE. Right now, I'd favor the CAD areas and lend more weight to the GFS solution, but with it tamped down quite a bit.
None of the models have been particularly good at this range on a consistent basis this year. They mostly have agreement that some manner of frozen precipitation will be possible, but I don't believe any doomsday icing maps no more than the man in the moon. And I won't unless I see an evolution toward classic CAD throughout the event.