Very reminiscent to how extensive the snowpack was up there going into February 2004… a number of strong CADs set up from late January on and some weren’t even from highs all that strong… the 2/26-27 storm that year had a CAD high that was only 1030mb and not in the best location
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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
There’s definitely some differences at H5, but interestingly has a similar cutoff ridge around Siberia - the pattern overall this past jan has been similar to 2014 tho
Big ice storm on the end of that ICON run
ICON 00z says I hope you like ice storms 
Yeah that’s how you get a ice storm. 
That wedge is so underdone! Wow! I can see.this going back into Eastern AL.
Southern stream wave that gets left behind in the 4 corners looks much more consolidated this GFS run, like the icon ??
GFS is still so weak with the southern stream wave over OK. has the overall look favorable for CAD with that trough approaching SE can, and high pressure following 
GFS develops precip but when the high is already moving out. but it’s slow with the progression of the southern stream and instead gets energy out of Canada which mucks things up. given how progressive the pattern is, we’re having to thread the needle with SS wave placement and high pressure
Yeah ICON would be a mess but we've seen this before I believe so of course I'm skeptical
Euro, whiff
Lifted ceiling potential, not virga. a lot of players on the field for next weekend.
RAH keeping an eye on the potential:
Saturday and Sunday: The upper trough over the Great Lakes will
progress through the Northeast and mid-Atlantic on Saturday while
the cutoff low over the southern Plains begins to move eastward.
Another northern stream wave will move east along the Canadian
border and into the Great Lakes Sat night/Sun, potentially picking
up the southern stream wave over the TN Valley on Sun as it does. At
the surface, high pressure will build into the area from a 1040 mb
high moving through the Northeast Sat and Sun. A coastal low could
develop off the FL coast and lift northeast Sun night into Mon. The
southern stream wave and coastal low could be the focus for some
additional precipitation over the Carolinas Sun/Sun night, but it is
too early to speculate if, where, when and what type of precip it
will be.
Saturday and Sunday: The upper trough over the Great Lakes will
progress through the Northeast and mid-Atlantic on Saturday while
the cutoff low over the southern Plains begins to move eastward.
Another northern stream wave will move east along the Canadian
border and into the Great Lakes Sat night/Sun, potentially picking
up the southern stream wave over the TN Valley on Sun as it does. At
the surface, high pressure will build into the area from a 1040 mb
high moving through the Northeast Sat and Sun. A coastal low could
develop off the FL coast and lift northeast Sun night into Mon. The
southern stream wave and coastal low could be the focus for some
additional precipitation over the Carolinas Sun/Sun night, but it is
too early to speculate if, where, when and what type of precip it
will be.
The time where we want a more amped southern stream wave, it wants to be sheared out. But in any other situation it would be amped. We need it to be quick and amped. I truly hope we don’t waste a upper 1030s/1040 high on a dry cold day 
SnowNiner
Member
I'm a bit surprised there's a thread for this time period so early. Especially with the models being so hit and miss and being a week out. Pattern has been to hold STJ energy back in the SW so far so I'd say that's likely to happen again IMO.
Still a couple of big hits for the deep south on the GEFS for Sunday.
D
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Aleet aleet
NCSNOW
Member
Icon has the 540 line , right where the Ukmet and Euro do. Fact Ukmet and euro are further south. Unfortunately they don't have the precip Yet, the Icon is spitting out.
over9000
Member
For sure CAD signature
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS coming in much colder.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Icy
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That’s a classic textbook CAD wedge
Umm 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Worrisome for two reasons.
1) Globals showing such a strong wedge at this lead time.
2) Surface temps actually get colder as the storm goes on versus rushing out.
You were just saying there was nothing to track. Now you're tracking and already setting up some farce about I-85 being a rain line, when past history has shown, the CAD is usually underdone. The run of the GFS would verify cooler further South, if anything.
Edit: The GFS is likely too progressive in the North and scurrying the High pressure out too quickly anyways.
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It'll be interesting to see what the canadian shows, given it's preference by several forecast offices for the forecasting of CAD events.
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fwiw
over9000
Member
Yup, High location is not ideal and Low in the Canada will flood the area with WAA and Rain.
Lol wow, even if we in-situ CAD this setup there would probably be a solid ZR footprint, 1041 ?!
Like Shawn said earlier the GFS tends to move high pressure out too fast and CAD always ends up stronger than modeled this far out.. if it’s already showing a bigger type of ice event I would start paying attention if you live anywhere in the CAD regionsYup, High location is not ideal and Low in the Canada will flood the area with WAA and Rain.
over9000
Member
Good Point
GEFS has a deeper trough sliding east into SE Canada with a stronger high pressure following, it’s really the southern stream that has my concern right now
Probably can't overstate the massive snowpack to our NE, how models evolve over the coming days is critical.... we've been burned I know but hard to not start noticing a serious CAD icing event potential on the horizon.
What??? That's why it is a CAD, the mountains block the low level cold air but plenty of moisture will be transported over top. Granted, the high is sliding out to sea, but with as much cold air there is, that really shouldn't be an issue.Yup, High location is not ideal and Low in the Canada will flood the area with WAA and Rain.
our source region for the damming high in the NE ??
