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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
So who’s right? The GFS, NAM, and prob UK or the Euro?
Yeah this system will more than likely be weak not amped I think getting precip back our way will be our biggest issue. GSP not interested as of now don't know RNK thoughts. Blacksburg I mean for your area
I think the GFS has already trended in this direction just taking steps in doing so, as Shawn mentioned we probably end up with a blend. With models speeding up arrival of precip due to progressive pattern, weaker with less qpf seems right. Probably a minor event for someone Central to eastern Carolina's. Early guess
SnowNiner
Member
The southern stream has been such a black fly in our chardonnay in this pattern. Such weak sauce. Just don't like this event, the lakes low, the orientation of the high, the terrible dew points, the weak southern stream. Just alot of meh here. My early guess is the energy flames out like the euro shows. Man, it seems like we're soooo close but we can't get a real one to pop.
Very similar to some of our recent systems, I like the CMC to some extent. This is how those down east can score but not the mtns. With sharp gradients in precip Charlotte to Raleigh.
Not saying your wrong but the CMC has no support from its own ensemble, which I think ensembles are best to pay attention to in this sort of setup, given the interactions around the Baja, EPS = more suppression, CMCE = more juiced, GEFS = more juiced. Take a blend and you have ENC/central NC getting a minor event
TeachLesley
Member
Its done that the last 2 times already. Time to get back to NW of 85.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Reading some posts on Twitter from the NE and it seems that the EC has caved to the GFS (RE this weekend). So there’s that, for whatever it may be worth.
SnowNiner
Member
GSP leans toward whiffers. Tosses GFS.
As of 250 PM EST Tuesday: Despite good model agreement and
increasing confidence in the short range, run to run and model
differences creating a low confidence forecast in the medium range.
The northern stream wave from the short term speeds by to our north
Saturday as the southern stream wave moves east. The GFS has a
stronger wave crossing the area Saturday night and early Sunday
while the ECMWF is weaker. Both models show cyclogenesis off the
southeastern coast, but the GFS is stronger and closer to the coast
initially and as it moves up the coast through Sunday. The ECMWF and
Canadian are weaker and farther off shore. The GFS has much more
precip with quite a wintry mix over the CWFA while the ECMWF and
Canadian shower little in the way of precip with only the smallest
potential for any wintry precip. The GFS is a cold and wet outlier,
the coldest and wettest of all the ensemble members for much of the
CWFA. The GEFS mean is much drier and warmer. Therefore, the
operational GFS much be taken with a huge grain of salt. Have gone
with the model blend forecast which has a chance of mostly rain for
most of the area. Temps near normal Saturday then below normal
Sunday. Of course, this bears watching as we get closer in time.
The guidance then shows a phasing split stream system developing
Monday and moving east of the area Tuesday. As with the first one,
the GFS is stronger with the upper waves and the resulting
cyclogenesis off the southeast coast but not as strong. The ECMWF
and Canadian show a weaker system with even less effect on our
weather. As with the first system, went with the guidance blend
which keeps a dry forecast for our area. Temps rise to near normal
Monday then drop a couple of degrees for Tuesday
As of 250 PM EST Tuesday: Despite good model agreement and
increasing confidence in the short range, run to run and model
differences creating a low confidence forecast in the medium range.
The northern stream wave from the short term speeds by to our north
Saturday as the southern stream wave moves east. The GFS has a
stronger wave crossing the area Saturday night and early Sunday
while the ECMWF is weaker. Both models show cyclogenesis off the
southeastern coast, but the GFS is stronger and closer to the coast
initially and as it moves up the coast through Sunday. The ECMWF and
Canadian are weaker and farther off shore. The GFS has much more
precip with quite a wintry mix over the CWFA while the ECMWF and
Canadian shower little in the way of precip with only the smallest
potential for any wintry precip. The GFS is a cold and wet outlier,
the coldest and wettest of all the ensemble members for much of the
CWFA. The GEFS mean is much drier and warmer. Therefore, the
operational GFS much be taken with a huge grain of salt. Have gone
with the model blend forecast which has a chance of mostly rain for
most of the area. Temps near normal Saturday then below normal
Sunday. Of course, this bears watching as we get closer in time.
The guidance then shows a phasing split stream system developing
Monday and moving east of the area Tuesday. As with the first one,
the GFS is stronger with the upper waves and the resulting
cyclogenesis off the southeast coast but not as strong. The ECMWF
and Canadian show a weaker system with even less effect on our
weather. As with the first system, went with the guidance blend
which keeps a dry forecast for our area. Temps rise to near normal
Monday then drop a couple of degrees for Tuesday
packfan98
Moderator
What did the EPS look like?
2 run change on the EPS from the 00z to the 12z
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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iGRXY
Member
ICON is slower this run thru 90.
But is also colder, especially at the surface.
But is also colder, especially at the surface.
ICON still to weak with SS energy, crazy part is, the icon is far enough S with the SE can trough, that mid levels look good enough for snow for NC especially, but the wave is just so weak
Suppressed but I like it there right now
From RAH:
Confidence greatly decreases for the rest of the period, but it is
increasingly looking like an active pattern for central NC, with
potential winter weather. A southern stream shortwave that was over
the Desert Southwest early Friday will move east across the Southern
Plains and Deep South, becoming negatively-tilted as it does so. It
then looks to pass near or west of our region and spawn a coastal
low that will ride along the stalled Arctic front, which may result
in a period of precipitation across our region on Saturday night or
Sunday. The 12z ECMWF at least came around to the faster timing of
the GFS, but there are still significant differences between the two
models. The 12z GFS is much more amplified and very wet for central
NC, while the 12z ECMWF and the vast majority of its ensembles are
much weaker and more suppressed with the coastal low, hardly giving
us any precipitation at all. The GEFS are not as wet as the
operational run but have still trended wetter. The latest WPC QPF
trended wetter as well. Thus overall confidence is rising in at
least some precipitation across central NC, so increased POPs to low
chance in the south and east with slight elsewhere, and sped up
timing based on the 12z guidance. With the Arctic front to our south
and east and a strong high pressure system still over New England,
temperatures will be cold enough that precipitation type could be a
concern, but details this far out are still very uncertain. The GFS
has been showing the 850 mb low tracking far enough west for more of
an ice or rain threat as opposed to snow. However, its surface
temperatures for the event have been trending colder given its
faster timing. All that can be said at this point is that all types
of precipitation (snow, ice, and rain) are on the table, and
hopefully models will start to come into better agreement tomorrow
once some of the supporting dynamics reach onshore in western Canada.
Confidence greatly decreases for the rest of the period, but it is
increasingly looking like an active pattern for central NC, with
potential winter weather. A southern stream shortwave that was over
the Desert Southwest early Friday will move east across the Southern
Plains and Deep South, becoming negatively-tilted as it does so. It
then looks to pass near or west of our region and spawn a coastal
low that will ride along the stalled Arctic front, which may result
in a period of precipitation across our region on Saturday night or
Sunday. The 12z ECMWF at least came around to the faster timing of
the GFS, but there are still significant differences between the two
models. The 12z GFS is much more amplified and very wet for central
NC, while the 12z ECMWF and the vast majority of its ensembles are
much weaker and more suppressed with the coastal low, hardly giving
us any precipitation at all. The GEFS are not as wet as the
operational run but have still trended wetter. The latest WPC QPF
trended wetter as well. Thus overall confidence is rising in at
least some precipitation across central NC, so increased POPs to low
chance in the south and east with slight elsewhere, and sped up
timing based on the 12z guidance. With the Arctic front to our south
and east and a strong high pressure system still over New England,
temperatures will be cold enough that precipitation type could be a
concern, but details this far out are still very uncertain. The GFS
has been showing the 850 mb low tracking far enough west for more of
an ice or rain threat as opposed to snow. However, its surface
temperatures for the event have been trending colder given its
faster timing. All that can be said at this point is that all types
of precipitation (snow, ice, and rain) are on the table, and
hopefully models will start to come into better agreement tomorrow
once some of the supporting dynamics reach onshore in western Canada.
over9000
Member
Brad makes sense here. Expectations should be managed. Could be all rain, all snow, or nothing at all.