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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

Big takeaways:

CAD is already being shown pretty stout at this lead time which is very unheard of.
1040 HP over all that snow pack and realistically the temps are likely in the low to mid 20's.
GFS is awful with CAD so for it to be showing something already is a big alert to me as of right now.
 
Shawn said:
I love the last frame personally; off it's rocker eroding that CAD so quickly.

View attachment 111934
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The parent surface high is centered way offshore and winds are out of the southeast even up in the northeast. That's nothing more than insitu CAD at this point, and without a continual supply of cold air, WAA plus top down erosion from 30kt+ winds just above the wedge will easily erode it. The GFS depiction might be off by a few hours, but it would erode without a doubt if this setup verified.

gfs_2022013112_fh156_sounding_35.69N_78.65W.png
 
IF this continues to show up consistently in the coming days. I'd bet a good bit that the CAD would be significantly underdone by models due to a massive snowpack to the North. This would be your classic example late this weekend. Especially with another storm about to hit late this week to our NE. If you want a Winter storm, pulling for the storm before this threat is what you would want to do.
 
Add to Fro's post

sfctd.conus.png



sfct.conus.png

700rh.conus.png
 
Yeah. Source region is a lock. If we’re feeding cold air over that snowpack to our north it’s got the potential to be ugly. Temps not super cold deep into wedge territory as modeled right now but this is something that is probably under modeled right now and we’d almost certainly have a meso high involved. I guess the thing to watch is that ridging in the Atlantic which can turn out stronger and we rain.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
1042 feeder high in NY with a 1036 meso on top of Roxboro. Even another high down in Alabama. Wedge much?
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I'm not sure that's a meso high in Roxboro. But nonetheless, the wedge is strong. Hopefully, the storm system is there and not parked or strung out out west.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Past three 12z runs of the EURO .. last image is todays … wow CAD trending stronger I’m shocked ?View attachment 111954
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Just wow. That is a massive change even at this range.

And, this seems more than just noise considering other modeling while not as extreme has indeed trended in this direction.
 
Notice how the Euro traps the Low pressure over the Great Lakes. This is exactly the type of CAD we'd be dealing with. GFS is pushing it out too quickly due to being too progressive. It's a bias, nothing new here.
 
superjames1992 said:
The timing on this seems to be getting pushed back run by run.
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Yeah keep pushing it back and our CAD high will be gone, left with some onset ice to rain but I'd wager precip gets here a little earlier than advertised. Plenty of details to iron out over the coming days, either way might have another to track
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah keep pushing it back and our CAD high will be gone, left with some onset ice to rain but I'd wager precip gets here a little earlier than advertised. Plenty of details to iron out over the coming days, either way might have another to track
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Yep, the trend has been slower than advertised at D5+. This one doesn't seem like a very big deal to me. The High isn't going to remain anchored and the southern system is probably going to be slow getting here. Like you said, onset slop to rain. May be a bigger deal in the western piedmont into VA, but we need a faster storm or confluence to remain in place. Otherwise, it won't be a very big deal.
 
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