00z ICON making some solid trends compared to 18z 
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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System
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NCSNOW
Member
Yes. Someone called it out 2 cycles ago and still there today looking back at 12z. Was playing catchup, trying to see what if anything to root for as window is gonna start closing here soon.
Bad News: ICON Precip shield is crushed because it phases too late and the northern stream subsidence/dry air wins out.
Good News: We were MUCH closer to an actual phase that would bode well for a much more expansive precip shield and colder air east of the Apps
Good News: We were MUCH closer to an actual phase that would bode well for a much more expansive precip shield and colder air east of the Apps
If you can get that southern low centered over Macon instead of Jacksonville we would have something. I’m surprised we are getting the ns to dig back that far sw.
Thank you “smking7”, you sure do sound like a met
Too little, too late on this run... but you can't help but get giddy looking at an evolution like this and knowing we're five days out
I could have probably picked a better username after NCSU took my email and I forget the password to my old account ?
This isn't a minor adjustment....
lexxnchloe
Member
For 5+ days away it at least gives some hope
View attachment 144662One more adjustment like that and parts of the Carolinas are off to the races for bread and milk
rburrel2
Member
Another signal for a Brevard to Waynesville jackpot. Hi-res models will love them if this look holds.
Do you want that one back? I know a guy
I agree. Two more, and well, being a professional meteorologist I'm not supposed to hyperbolize like that.
nc state gave us all gmail accounts upon arrival with unlimited data storage and promised it would never expire. and a lot of us abused it. I guess they realized they were hemorrhaging money and cancelled it in 2021. Half of my accounts were with my NCSU address and it’s still wreaking havoc on my life today.
Anyway icon looks great yada yada on to the gfs
I hope this threat works for some. IMO I think it’s all too little too late.. I could see maybe a surprise coastal type of event which is always fun for those guys.
There will be bigger and better fish come February 15th onward I believe
There will be bigger and better fish come February 15th onward I believe
?
lexxnchloe
Member
WOW
With how elongated the gfs has the southern wave you have to think something weird is about to happen
Dude 
All you gotta do it trend that northern stream to Michigan and somebody would get a foot of snow. Pretty crazy right
Pain
CMC is indeed making its own cold air this run
And/or if we can get the southern wave to stay stronger longer and slow down some.
Similar to the ICON, the GFS is trending quite similarly over the last four runs with that northern stream... just gotta keep digging and/or slow down that southern ULL
Slowing down the southern stream is the next thing I’m thinking about
Need that so that the *checks notes* ULL doesn’t pinwheel too far south when it fujiwaras around the northern vort lol
damn. Can’t help but feel like we really blew another one 
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian
Absolutely. If we can get a combo of this continued northern stream trend with some help with the ULL we are going to be looking at an absolute QPF bomb.
This pattern is volatile enough to do a 2010 lol, it probably won’t, but given the omega block, it’s possible, if your looking for hope
This isn't just blowing another one. This is probably one of the worst fails I have seen ever in my life, in regards to the snow amounts this would have been for everyone.
It will be 25 years + before this idea is seen again.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The candle is still lit, it's amazing how close this is to something special
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NCSNOW
Member
To give folks a surface view of how close we are to something great , we need this about 18 hours earlier. You phase and this is what it looks like, just gotta be out at frying pan shoals,points beyond to see
This isn’t as bad as our fail in January 2022. With this one, we really only had one Euro Op with a snowstorm, everything else was just ensembles.
In January 2022, I remember a couple Euro runs where Savannah to Blacksburg has 12in+ swaths 144 hrs out. Although we saw something, the failed opportunity still bugs me
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian just got to deep with the ULL that run, makes for a greater distance to have a hookup of streams.
The trends are pretty surprising, tbh. It really wouldn't take all that much more to explode this thing right along the coast. You could essentially pick one of probably 3 different things that need some slight tweaking to mKe it happen.
I know we haven't had the best luck in the last few years, but this is honestly not all that far off...not for 5 or 6 days out or whatever.
I know we haven't had the best luck in the last few years, but this is honestly not all that far off...not for 5 or 6 days out or whatever.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
4 run trend, steady progress west with the NS vort...
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
4 run trend, steady progress west with the NS vort...
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Another 100 miles West maybe get it Negative Tilt
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Gfs ens pretty much mirror op
Northern vort further west gets cancelled by faster weaker ull
Northern vort further west gets cancelled by faster weaker ull
Trend is undeniable in the GEFS. It is trying to get there!
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