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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
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Carolina Sky
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That's what was supposed to happen in January 2000. Just saying.
Bingo
It's such a battle with the placement of the northern stream vort. On one hand, it'll provide the Carolinas with a colder air source and a potential phase that would lead to a much more dynamic and expansive precip field.
But then you have the negative affects of the northern stream shown here, i.e. if you get stuck with a late phase, you are battling with very dry and sinking air on the back side of the northern stream air that inhibits much precip growth on the northern flank of the southern ULL
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Bready86
Member
6z
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Doesn't look like we went backwards on the GEFS. Still has some varying solutions, I've seen worse.
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Bready86
Member
Definitely keeping hope alive. I counted more hits during the 6z than the 0z for Central NC
I mean this ain’t bad
it's hard to believe that precip doesnt make it but if the upper levels dry out, you're cooked.
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We've definitely pretty much lost the EPS. I would say the probs of this one working out are definitely fading. Worth keeping an eye on still, but unless we see some definitive positive moves today (including with the Euro suite), this is probably going to end up like the rest of our wintry hopes and dreams have the past two years in the Carolinas.
Good post. Way too many people on here see a "L" off the coast and think we should automatically be getting 1" QPF statewide every time, when it really doesn't work that way at all. Upper levels -- especially if you live inland -- are far more important than people realize. Think about how many sub 990 mb lows that are hurricanes scrape the Carolina coast with rain barely making it (or not at all) to RDU west.
The Euro & Ensemble are warmer because no energy like shown on the Canadian & even the GFS pinwheels down & provides a cold air feed. That energy actually revamps another low which then throws back moisture into the cold air pushed down. Euro has some dislodgment but it never connects. Just my take.
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Euro has been doing this for days minus 1 or 2 runs. The 0z cmc is really the playbook if you live in NC and want snow. This flat wave and deep ENE to NE flow in the MLs isn't going to work. It'll be hard to overlap cold and moisture without zapping the dgz in this setup
Definitely agree. And it’s definitely not impossible still at this lead time to see some significant adjustments still, but personally seeing the EPS with only a handful of members showing this happening (and dwindling each run) doesn’t inspire much confidence. Maybe the 12z runs will turn the momentum around.
Im more sanguine- I thought steps were made in the right direction last night and think there’s a good chance the momentum continues
No eps blows but is not a death knell
No eps blows but is not a death knell
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Positive trend with the piece of energy over the NE
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Overnight CFS. We (I) take what we can get.
Hour 144:
Hour 156:
Hour 144:
Hour 156:
NoSnowATL
Member
GFS hates this system but hopefully its wrong for you weenies in NC.
Please don't take this as argumentative or anything, this is just a "what am I missing" question but.... I'm just genuinely curious if you think the Euro took positive steps (that maybe I'm missing) or are you just referring to the non-Euro suite of guidance, because the below trend looks pretty bad (to me) on the Euro the past 3 runs in tandem with the diminishing signal from the EPS.
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