packfan98
Moderator
I'll be curious what the hi-res models are going to show if we still have a similar look when they get in range.
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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System
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We getting trolled hard now...I really thought if that omega ridge hold back west of the lakes would give enough room for that n/s low to dig back west.
phew i think this thing is about to go boom but just offshore
Cary_Snow95
Member
if you shift this 200-300 miles west this a meteorological black swan event that rivals jan 2000 lol
Energy about to dig & catch up. It looks better than 06z in that regard. Throwing back snow into the Northeast.
rburrel2
Member
Our goose is cooked in western area's of NC/SC... but dang this is close to an absolute monster for the coastal plain. One more shift like that and boom.
This is just getting ridiculous!
I’m not giving up (despite my best judgement) bc I just don’t buy the models having this thing nailed down 138hrs out. Just like if it buried us this far out I would t be buying a snow shovel
if you shift this 200-300 miles west this a meteorological black swan event that rivals jan 2000 lol
I was just about to post prior to the 12z GFS that with today's shortwave it was still taking some massive jumps until about 96 hours out, so we've still got another 24 hours at least for wild rides (and we just about went on one).
Could end up being a really nice snow for Cape Cod 
Would a 988 sit out there like that with no real precip punch?
cmc - similar jump to gfs
Brick Tamland
Member
That is what I keep coming back to. That wasn't supposed to happen. It was supposed to stay off-shore. It didn't.
if you shift this 200-300 miles west this a meteorological black swan event that rivals jan 2000 lol
rburrel2
Member
FWIW, the 12z ukmet says no to a timely phase. Gonna be a tough hill to climb, but who knows.
accu35
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I don’t know
Yes
let me address this right now- jan 2000 resulted in millions (tens of millions? hundreds of millions?) being pumped into modeling research and development to make sure a catastrophic failure like that doesn't happen again. that storm was a mega surprise for all of i95. we're not going to see a surprise like that again.
I agree. And perhaps it will, the 12z GFS/CMC are really, really close. Would like to see the Euro start stepping in this direction because we've not only got to get it to step to the GFS/CMC solution, but then step beyond it slightly more if we are to get anything. That's a lot of stepping.
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