Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

[ILMRoss]

Please don't take this as argumentative or anything, this is just a "what am I missing" question but.... I'm just genuinely curious if you think the Euro took positive steps (that maybe I'm missing) or are you just referring to the non-Euro suite of guidance, because the below trend looks pretty bad (to me) on the Euro the past 3 runs in tandem with the diminishing signal from the EPS.

View attachment 144512

mainly referring to the non-euro suite. you're not wrong it doesn't look great

tbh haven't had a change this morning to take a fair crack at the euro as i've been selling some speakers on the fb marketplace. a dude drove all the way from newport news to sit in my living room and listen to radiohead

the euro isn't infallible but it has me on "cave watch" for everything else on the 12z suite

 

[1300m]

mainly referring to the non-euro suite. you're not wrong it doesn't look great

tbh haven't had a change this morning to take a fair crack at the euro as i've been selling some speakers on the fb marketplace. a dude drove all the way from newport news to sit in my living room and listen to radiohead

the euro isn't infallible but it has me on "cave watch" for everything else on the 12z suite

No worries - just wanting to see if maybe there was another fly in the ointment I've missed somewhere. I'm right there with you, and I totally agree the Euro is not infallible we've seen some pretty epic fails by it in recent years not only in winter months but non-winter months as well. Just wish the EPS was leaving the door ajar a little wider....

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 144496

loop-de-loop?? That doesn't actually verify very often--does it?

 

[KyloG]

I guess some good news...more than half the members that get precip into Raleigh have snow. I do think we see precip out of this in one form or another...

 

[SD]

loop-de-loop?? That doesn't actually verify very often--does it?

No not really but it makes sense in this look.

I think the precip will leak northward into our area eventually on the models but it's going to be the finest of lines between 34rain/36cloudy/32snow

 

[1300m]

I guess some good news...more than half the members that get precip into Raleigh have snow. I do think we see precip out of this in one form or another...

View attachment 144527View attachment 144526

No not really but it makes sense in this look.

I think the precip will leak northward into our area eventually on the models but it's going to be the finest of lines between 34rain/36cloudy/32snow

I do agree that not getting any precip out of this system seems far-fetched, but getting significant non-liquid precipitation is going to be the challenge.

 

[NCSNOW]

I will say this, I noticed a couple years ago after a Euro tweak/facelift, The Operational wasn't as consistent Days 5-7 as it used to be. Now 120hr and under it was and still is leader of the pack by wide margins. EPS I cant say. I'm like a lot on here, No matter how good it looks on all other guidance, You easily stay tempered if the euro Familia isn't on board. It should change its tune between now and 12z run Thursday if this event is gonna have any leg to stand on.

 

[Oconeexman]

Upstate and NeGa need some serious help here. Northern stream still isn't set in stone so there's time. Hopefully some better trends start by tonight or we may be cooked. Side note: 6" tall daffys have popped out of no where I noticed yesterday.

 

[ILMRoss]

one main reason you're not seeing a very robust precip shield is that with ULLs, theres less (if any) warm air advection.

warm air advection has a bad rap on here because of the precip issues they cause but they are also a bedrock source of lift. it's the source of almost every front end thump. easiest way to scan for it is veering winds on a hodo.

since mature ULLs are stacked, there's very little change in wind direction with height:


(and yes this hodo is dry too but i said it was "a main reason" not "the main reason"!)

so all the lift is being drawn from vorticity advection or convection off the coast. it's annoying and maybe there will be some ticks northward but that's why the precip shield more muted than we're used to

 

[KyloG]

It's tough to watch this and nobody gets snow out of this. We don't get setups like this but once a decade, if that, and we just pissed one away.

 

[lexxnchloe]

It's tough to watch this and nobody gets snow out of this. We don't get setups like this but once a decade, if that, and we just pissed one away.

View attachment 144537

Heart of winter temps and Normals go up from here.

 

[ILMRoss]

the bones are still there, just a hair too warm

 

[KyloG]

I shouldn't post this but....look at the trend how the NS low digs back west from 96 hours out todays run at 48 hours

 

[ILMRoss]

ridge? taller.
heights on the east side? lower and "notchier"
NE vortex? further west

idk talk me out of being excited

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 144545
ridge? taller.
heights on the east side? lower and "notchier"
NE vortex? further west

idk talk me out of being excited

Ha the model will do that by itself in a few minutes!

 

[Brick Tamland]

the bones are still there, just a hair too warm

That's what I am more worried about than a lack of precip. I think the precip will be there.

 

[griteater]

It's tough to watch this and nobody gets snow out of this. We don't get setups like this but once a decade, if that, and we just pissed one away.

View attachment 144537

I hear you, but here are temp anomalies 1 day prior to our current storm vs. a couple others in the past that have been mentioned.

Feb 2004 is actually not tremendously different, but still, more cold air then. Tough hill to climb this week

 

[1300m]

Good grief.

 

[iGRXY]

Lololololol