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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

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Just wanted to say thanks to everyone for the pbp analysis of these storms. There are some very intelligent/ dedicated folks on this forum and am glad to be on here to get everyone's insight. If this one don't work out, hopefully mid February through the rest of winter will be a grand slam.

Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk
 
ILMRoss said:
Actually pretty concerned about this. Every model kicked the ULL out east faster. Adjustments to the northern stream won’t mean anything if the ULL is in Cuba. Ugh
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Agreed. Despite the great northern stream trends, individual GEFS members have trended worse (less snow hits) with that quicker ULL progression. Hate that this has been the trend among all guidance.

We're now rooting for a slower or northwest trend or with the ULL which isn't a terrible thing given five days out, I guess ??‍♂️
 
Makes sense the ULL is getting squashed a bit northern stream has trended far west enough to have that influence, but the further west it gets, the more the southern stream wave itself would want to get “pulled back”. Slowing down the ULL would help out as well
 
It’s definitely close enough for someone to get NAMd in the long range.

Definitely a surprising big shift from the GFS … but I don’t trust the GFS that much as a model in recent years.. its performance is definitely lacking compared to the euro and CMC in the skill score category.. if we see similar trends with the euro then I would feel better about this drastic change being a legitimate wrench in the flow that the models are picking up on.

Let’s see a few more cycles. Certainly still far enough out for some movement
 
From RAH (basically not likely, but maybe):

"It remains to be seen just how far south the track
system will track with the latest 00z/01 run trending towards a more
suppressed track. Additionally, the top/lead ensemble cluster
suggests the northern edge of the precip shield may just clip
southern portions of the state Sunday night and into Monday. In this
case, the predominate precip type looks to be rain, with precip
exiting the area Monday afternoon/evening. However, if the eventual
track of the low is farther north, there would be a potential for
rain to changeover to snow before ending as the cold air pours into
the Carolinas in the wake of the low deepening of the SE US coast."
 
Amazing that we’re going to end up seeing suppression being ultimately what puts the final nail in the coffin on this…yes I am one of the ones who says suppression is the last thing we should ever worry about and I still believe that general. I hate to say it, but if we had any small push back from the SER, it would have done wonders.
 
Chazwin said:
Amazing that we’re going to end up seeing suppression being ultimately what puts the final nail in the coffin on this…yes I am one of the ones who says suppression is the last thing we should ever worry about and I still believe that general. I hate to say it, but if we had any small push back from the SER, it would have done wonders.
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The SER is looking more like a Mid-Atlantic one by the time the system rolls through. There's no resisting that.
gfs_z500a_atl_20.png
 
Euro keeping me interested...

All the models have the southern ull wrapping up with a bout of strengthening Sunday night as a lobe slings up and around the base of its trough. The gfs is the least agressive with this and thus has no precip making in to the upstate/nc mountains.

But the ICON/CMC/Euro all have qpf in this area Sunday night/Monday morning. Also this band of precip will essentially stall and pivot as the ull gets shunted to the South, so there could be a stationary band hammering an area for several hours. Thermal profiles are marginal to say the least, but boundary layer conditions aren't horrible and there's no real warm nose.

It's something to watch because I'd be shocked if the precip doesn't make it this far north, and if it does, I think hi-res models are going to go to town a little more with dynamic cooling assuming the band is heavy which looking at the strength of the 5h low and the fact it's deepening for a while, seems like a possibility.

Screen Shot 2024-02-01 at 6.56.40 AM.png
 
Not looking great right now. But as we discussed, we've seen this before where the models lose an event (shift too south/east etc.) between day 7 to 5. So if we're going to get something, we need to see positive trends start today or tonight.
 
KyloG said:
Good news is maybe we won't have to deal with inches of rain.

Euro abandoned this a couple of days ago, we should have listened.

View attachment 144702
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Correct. When the EPS totally lost the idea of northern stream injection and enhancement it was a huge red flag to me. EPS isn't perfect, but it's a lot better at having subsets of solutions than the GEFS is, so when it totally dried up I was definitely concerned. Still, it was right to track it and why not - not like we have any other hope other than another pattern chase (which I loathe). I said going into this winter we'd have at least a couple heart breakers before we ever got anything, so I think we have met that criteria. Sure would be nice to get a bone soon.
 
1300m said:
Correct. When the EPS totally lost the idea of northern stream injection and enhancement it was a huge red flag to me. EPS isn't perfect, but it's a lot better at having subsets of solutions than the GEFS is, so when it totally dried up I was definitely concerned. Still, it was right to track it and why not - not like we have any other hope other than another pattern chase (which I loathe). I said going into this winter we'd have at least a couple heart breakers before we ever got anything, so I think we have met that criteria. Sure would be nice to get a bone soon.
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I don't remember the last Euro op run that had anything for our area...if ever.
 
we probably have a model suite or two left in the clip to see if anything changes. the trough in question began landfalling in Cali last night and was sampled in 00z (bad) but it's a huge system and there's still a lot that has to come ashore (verdict still out) if you want to play the sampling card

a weaker, more strung out system will be faster, full stop. meteorological fact. i don't think it's getting squashed by the northern vort because previous model iterations like that electric 00z icon a few nights ago showed a constructive interference was possible. by the end, ok, there's an argument that it gets squashed because the ull goes into cuba and that is rare and needs a lot to line up for it to happen. but it leaking south and being weaker in the first place is allowing that to happen. take the northern depiction of yesterday's 00z gfs coupled with the ull strength/location of yesterday's 12z gfs and this thread could be 12 pages longer.

no reason to expect the weaker trend to stop this round though. i'd be pleasantly surprised if it did. thems the breaks.

edit: 12z nam might be strengthening and slowing the ull if you want a shred of hope, if you're into that kind of thing ?‍?
 
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1300m said:
Enjoyed tracking this one with everyone. Great insights provided by many, including you.
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Thanks ! Yep, with each fail (and rarely win) we all get better and improve observations going in depth on what can provide a setup and what can kill a setup, and how the smallest things at H5 can have big implications, each time it’s a learning experience ! And it’s been better doing it with others. Not really upset about this one honestly, it’s nothing like the sting felt by the January fail
 
ILMRoss said:
we probably have a model suite or two left in the clip to see if anything changes. the trough in question began landfalling in Cali last night and was sampled in 00z (bad) but it's a huge system and there's still a lot that has to come ashore (verdict still out) if you want to play the sampling card

a weaker, more strung out system will be faster, full stop. meteorological fact. i don't think it's getting squashed by the northern vort because previous model iterations like that electric 00z icon a few nights ago showed a constructive interference was possible. by the end, ok, there's an argument that it gets squashed because the ull goes into cuba and that is rare and needs a lot to line up for it to happen. but it leaking south and being weaker in the first place is allowing that to happen. take the northern depiction of yesterday's 00z gfs coupled with the ull strength/location of yesterday's 12z gfs and this thread could be 12 pages longer.

no reason to expect the weaker trend to stop this round though. i'd be pleasantly surprised if it did. thems the breaks.

edit: 12z nam might be strengthening and slowing the ull if you want a shred of hope, if you're into that kind of thing ?‍?
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If it has been in a poorly sampled area, it's not too far fetched to think it could be stronger. That said, we need more than sampling to help us here.

Also, on a related note, referencing the Jan 2000 system as the benchmark example of how models miss wide right isn't really the ray of hope it seems like it is, 25 years later. It wasn't as simple as the models missing the timing on phasing a well modeled northern stream wave with a southern stream wave. It was a miss on smaller scale processes that led to rapid cyclogenesis closer to the coast. Also, models are much better now, so a miss of that magnitude in that short time scale may not even be possible now...a point that has been made.

Anyway, there is still hope here, although it hangs by a thread.
 
Rain Cold said:
If it has been in a poorly sampled area, it's not too far fetched to think it could be stronger. That said, we need more than sampling to help us here.

Also, on a related note, referencing the Jan 2000 system as the benchmark example of how models miss wide right isn't really the ray of hope it seems like it is, 25 years later. It wasn't as simple as the models missing the timing on phasing a well modeled northern stream wave with a southern stream wave. It was a miss on smaller scale processes that led to rapid cyclogenesis closer to the coast. Also, models are much better now, so a miss of that magnitude in that short time scale may not even be possible now...a point that has been made.

Anyway, there is still hope here, although it hangs by a thread.
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I am almost convinced surprises like that cant happen anymore. I can remember one off the top of my head(February 2014) where something turned up out of nothing.
 
ILMRoss said:
we probably have a model suite or two left in the clip to see if anything changes. the trough in question began landfalling in Cali last night and was sampled in 00z (bad) but it's a huge system and there's still a lot that has to come ashore (verdict still out) if you want to play the sampling card

a weaker, more strung out system will be faster, full stop. meteorological fact. i don't think it's getting squashed by the northern vort because previous model iterations like that electric 00z icon a few nights ago showed a constructive interference was possible. by the end, ok, there's an argument that it gets squashed because the ull goes into cuba and that is rare and needs a lot to line up for it to happen. but it leaking south and being weaker in the first place is allowing that to happen. take the northern depiction of yesterday's 00z gfs coupled with the ull strength/location of yesterday's 12z gfs and this thread could be 12 pages longer.

no reason to expect the weaker trend to stop this round though. i'd be pleasantly surprised if it did. thems the breaks.

edit: 12z nam might be strengthening and slowing the ull if you want a shred of hope, if you're into that kind of thing ?‍?
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Great post
 
BullCityWx said:
I am almost convinced surprises like that cant happen anymore. I can remember one off the top of my head(February 2014) where something turned up out of nothing.
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Feb 14th Popped up on the 84hr NAM as a Murphy - Manteo right? then was just consistent on and on until that weds i believe. Sorry didnt know how to respond to this in another thread?
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Feb 14th Popped up on the 84hr NAM as a Murphy - Manteo right? then was just consistent on and on until that weds i believe. Sorry didnt know how to respond to this in another thread?
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Oh I mean the snow before the big one in 2014. It was mostly Charlotte and south - we ended up with about an inch to inch and a half in midtown charlotte
 
BullCityWx said:
I am almost convinced surprises like that cant happen anymore. I can remember one off the top of my head(February 2014) where something turned up out of nothing.
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I had to check but I think you’re referring to 2/24/2015. There was a small system that gave pretty much all of NC 1-4” of snow and it was completely missed in the forecast up to the night before. I remember going onto AmericanWX for discussion about the storm that was coming for the 25-26th and seeing everyone talk about what the NAM and SREF were starting to put out over the next 24 hours and I was confused until I pulled the models up. Local TV mets here, nor GSP bit on it by 11pm news. Then I got woke up by a phone call at 5am saying Union County Schools were on a 2-hour delay due to light snow and looked outside to see the ground and the street already white… so that was a miss on a small scale. I can’t imagine though there ever being another miss on the scale of January 2000 when many areas saw the biggest storm they’ve seen over the last 70 years and were not even forecasted a flake 24 hours earlier
 
BullCityWx said:
Oh I mean the snow before the big one in 2014. It was mostly Charlotte and south - we ended up with about an inch to inch and a half in midtown charlotte
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Oh I saw this after my post about 2/24/2015.. you’re correct 2/11/2014 did end up being a bigger deal for areas across southern and eastern NC and northern SC than was expected. I was forecast to get around 1” from that but instead got 3.5”… the first of three straight days with 3” or more of daytime snowfall.
 
Chazwin said:
I had to check but I think you’re referring to 2/24/2015. There was a small system that gave pretty much all of NC 1-4” of snow and it was completely missed in the forecast up to the night before. I remember going onto AmericanWX for discussion about the storm that was coming for the 25-26th and seeing everyone talk about what the NAM and SREF were starting to put out over the next 24 hours and I was confused until I pulled the models up. Local TV mets here, nor GSP bit on it by 11pm news. Then I got woke up by a phone call at 5am saying Union County Schools were on a 2-hour delay due to light snow and looked outside to see the ground and the street already white… so that was a miss on a small scale. I can’t imagine though there ever being another miss on the scale of January 2000 when many areas saw the biggest storm they’ve seen over the last 70 years and were not even forecasted a flake 24 hours earlier
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I do remember that one too - the one time I told myself I'd never drive to work in the snow again
 
BullCityWx said:
I do remember that one too - the one time I told myself I'd never drive to work in the snow again
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I had a meeting for work scheduled in Sanford that day and had to rush to get ready so that I could leave early and give myself extra time. Then of course once I got halfway there, I got a phone call saying the meeting was cancelled
 
I said it a few days ago.....someone is going to get a surprise out of the ULL cold with all the moisture that is going to be hanging around. I really like the area from Huntsville to Chattanooga to Atlanta if this occurs. Ive seen a few members of the globals showing this here and there....It would be like betting on the Lions to win the Super Bowl next week......slim chance, but WTH, Im in!!
 
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