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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

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ILMRoss said:
i've been thinking about that @griteater observation from earlier in the day about the orientation/tilt of the big ridge and i think if we could pull off a better tilt to allow an anticyclonic wave breaking event to lower heights more in this area... it would be really really nice
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Hmm, I'm actually not sure if I'm in the same camp on this one or not. I actually think that the ridge getting pinched is resulting in a better outcome as it is sharpening the east side of the ridge, forcing energy to dive into the trough at the last minute. That, along with a little slower trend of the southern ULL would open the door to phasing more and/or allowing more cold to make it into the system. We're starting to enter that timezone where legitimate trends are going to start appearing on the ops.

As @Myfrotho704_ and @griteater and others have discussed, there are so many small details feeding into this it is really tough to even suss out everything that is effecting the setup. Just in the map below there are 4 clear closed ULLs impacting the setup, with many more small vortices that could continue to result in adjustments.

gem_z500_vort_namer_fh138_trend.gif
 
This has been so fascinating to watch the models slowly hone in on this setup. The northern stream bending back west on all modeling is very interesting, if that trend continues we will be seeing weenie runs shortly. Also noticing a trend of slowing down the southern wave on this 0z cycle which could increase chance of phasing!

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CMCE slowed the southern wave down a lot, but doesn’t have the favorability with the northern stream interestingly, but the slowed ULL could be a big step to certain problems in future runs
 
FYI, tropical tidbits is down (outage), no restoration time yet...Levi is working on it

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Looking at the CMCE (hr 168 Tuesday evening) quite a few members keep the low near the SE coast. Could certainly be an impressive coastal system especially if that southern wave slows and any phasing occurs with the NS
eb7e19f4a40157fbc3db4ab33054911e.gif


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Last line of RAHs overnight discussion:
............... "Given the continued track uncertainty, we kept precip
types all rain, but a more wrapped up system and further north track
could complicate ptypes if enough cold air were to advect into the
area."

So, wintery precip is not probable, but is still possible.
 
Chazwin said:
View attachment 144494
This is for Monday morning. Can someone explain to how a 994 low just off Charleston gives this as a QPF response??
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My guess is because there is a lot of energy associated with that wave, the low that does form is not consolidated enough to produce a large precip shield, but if and when the phasing process kicks in, that ballgame will change.

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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
My guess is because there is a lot of energy associated with that wave, the low that does form is not consolidated enough to produce a large precip shield, but if and when the phasing process kicks in, that ballgame will change.

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It does continue to strengthen. Maybe as RAH stated it will "wrap up" more and push precip to the NW. I would think this is probable (with the below look).

At hour 144:
1706700659902.png

Lots of changes still coming (for good or bad).
 
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