• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

Status
Not open for further replies.
rburrel2 said:
Just looking at soundings and there's still a path to victory for an isothermal nuking in a small area around the southeastern mountains/escarpment even down to foothill elevations.

This would be late Sunday night/Monday morning and isn't reliant on the phasing/CAA feed that potentially comes later.

I'm curious to see how the hi-res models handle it when they get in range, (assuming the heavy band of precip makes in to this region during that time frame.)

Here's a GFS sounding below from northern greenville county in SC with no elevation valid Monday at 1am. With heavy precip rates they'd be possibly looking at heavy snow.
.View attachment 144605
Click to expand...
Don't suck me back in lol. But yeah me and you both I'm definitely interested in what the hi-res has to say. Its going to be a long weekend. Nerve pills and anxiety meds ✓ Cold Beer ✓
 
Maybe it's just me I'm on my cell but it appears to me the system has ticked NW the last two runs on the GFS. I know it will waffle but this is a dynamic system lots of players on the field and the play has to be perfect. Little difference's can translate to big possibilities. Anyway enjoy at least it's something to track.
 
Is there a severe side to this for us back west?
 
NWS RAH discussion:

“There are still some differences in the models wrt the location and
track of the low as it moves through the Southeast US. Even small
difference can have a significant impact on the chances, amounts,
and types of precipitation with this system over central NC. As a
result, confidence remains somewhat low. For now, will keep any/all
precipitation liquid as confidence remains too low to include any
wintry precip. There is even a chance most or all of the area could
remain dry. The best chance for precipitation will be along the
NC/SC border as the low moves through the Southeast Mon/Mon night.”
 
You go to hour 162 on last nights canadian and compare to the 18z GFS, you will see the possibilities here. Its been obvious to me for the past almost 2 days now,that the only way to score here for any of us , is to have this thing get injected with ns energy/phased and attempt to bombogenesis right on the coast. What can really help is a poleward motion after a pivot. Seen a few small hints at it ensembles,but the biggest trend is still an OTS off to the east. The JMA stalling,crawling is just another clue that this might be achievable or a trend that unfolds. This has no doubt been an interesting chase, kinda unique, even if we whiff.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Shocked no one posted this
View attachment 144622
Click to expand...
What we been waiting to see! now wheres the 75-125 mile NW trend? If this was over our head, you know it (nw trend) would come.

Maybe the kicker wave on the west coast will slow down a notch and buy us 12 more hours for the phasing to take place sooner,futher west
 
18z Euro was stronger with the southern low, precip field further north at hr90. These globals are going to start jackpotting the SW mountains/foothills soon I think. 18z GFS had a little spot of snow there.

The thing is if that band makes it up there, it could pivot in the same spot for 12-18 hours and drop 2-3 inches of liquid. The upside potential while very unlikely is through the roof there.

Also worth noting the highest GEFS snow mean for anybody is that area of the southern mountains around Brevard
 
Last edited:
rburrel2 said:
18z Euro was a stronger with the southern low, precip field further north at hr90. These globals are going to start jackpotting the SW mountains/foothills soon I think. 18z GFS had a little spot of snow there.

The thing is if that band makes it up there, it could pivot in the same spot for 12-18 hours and drop 2-3 inches of liquid. The upside potential while very unlikely is through the roof there.

Also worth noting the highest GEFS snow mean for anybody is that area of the southern mountains around Brevard
Click to expand...
And we know if anywhere is gonna squeeze out precip, it’s Brevard and that area of the state
 
The euro is the only model with this energy on top of our block. May or may not matter. I think its what causing it to be the least phased as it shows up an dillutes any energy from our ne low getting yanked down at precisely the worst time

1706750734763.png
 
NCSNOW said:
The euro is the only model with this energy on top of our block. May or may not matter. I think its what causing it to be the least phased as it shows up an dillutes any energy from our ne low getting yanked down at precisely the worst time

View attachment 144636
Click to expand...
You mean this loaded ferris wheel seat pointed out earlier right?

Capture.PNG
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top