I just wanna know how we got here. It was so damn promising for everybody here 
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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System
- Thread starter SD
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I swear it looks like it’s coming back
man I had a dewpoint of 5, a surface temp of 27 and a low pressure system moving west to east across Jacksonville the other day
GFS trying to come back 
991mb offshore cmon qpf
NCSNOW
Member
Should be way more qpf. Good trend.
That northern piece nosing its way in there is what we need more of 
850s trend last 3 runs ?
NCSNOW
Member
We got pos, strength and cold enough air and the goofus shoots a blank
Okay
at 132. feel like this run is about to get really weird (in a good way)
We did get a little smooch there later on
if only we had qpf from the 989mb low offshore chs
NCSNOW
Member
Exact location and 2mb stronger than Icon.
I think the last few days of negative trends have really put a damper on the mindset in this group, but it's important to remember we're still 5-6 days out from this, and that's an absolute eternity in the weather world
We aren't that far from some of those mega hits we've seen on some ensembles in recent days. A solid 200-300 mile shift in the overall pattern scheme is all we're talking about here, and that happens all the time in these medium-range patterns.
It's also important to note - look how poorly models have been performing as of late (Ryan Maue Tweet)
We aren't that far from some of those mega hits we've seen on some ensembles in recent days. A solid 200-300 mile shift in the overall pattern scheme is all we're talking about here, and that happens all the time in these medium-range patterns.
It's also important to note - look how poorly models have been performing as of late (Ryan Maue Tweet)
Low moves offshore and my wet bulb immediately goes to 30 degrees ? ?
NCSNOW
Member
Hello here
CMC looks good ! 
hey guys those LP readings you're pulling up are getting contaminated by spurious convection
so the model is showing a huge diffuse area of sub 998 low pressure and a nodule of 991. check out the winds. the gfs might actually think that's a tropical depression lmao
not that big a deal in the grand scheme of the forecast but just be careful that these lps are going to be skewed low
so the model is showing a huge diffuse area of sub 998 low pressure and a nodule of 991. check out the winds. the gfs might actually think that's a tropical depression lmao
not that big a deal in the grand scheme of the forecast but just be careful that these lps are going to be skewed low
NCSNOW
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