this is why I can’t just let go of this one 
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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
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Precip further north this run and with the 500mb setup, there would be more precip on the NW side. Just get the cold aloft locked in.
Damnit GFS brought my precip back ? 
rburrel2
Member
It's far from settled but the 12z/18z Modeling seem to really like the Southern east-facing mountains in NC/SC. Up-side potential there is huge if they get mostly snow and jackpot on the pivot.
WNC would have had a nice hit there had it thrown moisture back west
The gfs made a pretty big northward adjustment with precip. And the euro ensembles had more hits as well at 12z..models have changed so much with this threat but would not suprise me to see southern stream trend better up until 0 hour. Pretty potent southern stream. Just keep the NE vortex and we might be cooking.
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I mean come on this is stupid close this is a epic tease off a viagra or gas station rhino pill 
There will certainly be the typical “precip shield underdone” discussions if this general look holds for a few more days
Just not gonna be cold enough in our neck of the woods Jimmy. Or atleast not mine.
No. GEFS won’t let go of those 15-20% big dog members in the upstate which is keeping me here I guess. I wish they’d fall off the table when the ensemble means come out at 18z so I could just be done
The 500mb set up screams there to be more precip further north and west with that look. This is why we say the most important piece to nail down right now is the cold source. With the strong STJ, any system should amp up a good bit.
I like this but for some reason don't believe it.
Come on just touch and make love already 
Look at the height field orienting straight north to south now above the southern ULL. This is what we want to see.
Snow mean is down a little more on the gefs, but everything else looked better, even colder aloft
ull path ticked south and weaker a hair, does not surprise me
From what I could tell, the 18z GDPS was a touch better verbatim. Would've had a slightly stronger cold push but a weaker ULL. It only goes out to 84hrs but looked better compared to the 12z.
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