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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
I might be crazy, but we need to keep an eye on this system. The trends are just enough to keep the candle lit.

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Not crazy at all. I know it’s been highlighted on here already, but this is one of those systems where just the smallest changes can have big implications on what we end up getting at the surface. Funny one of the local mets in Charlotte was on at 6 talking about our 2 year snow drought and said “if you’re looking for snow anytime soon, don’t hold your breath.” I found myself cursing at the tv, but who knows - maybe he was trying to play a little reverse psychology.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Another important piece is also trending better, the secondary/trailing northern vort, which is the one we want to inject into the system, the Initial trough trending back is opening the door for this second vort to dig further west View attachment 144416View attachment 144417
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Great analysis. This is our opportunity IMO. Like you also pointed out, we are seeing (relatively) massive changes inside D4 and it’s probably due to the data sparse location this energy is coming from and this may continue. This could be good or bad for us but we gotta just hope and pray it’s good ala 2010.
 
Now is the time where we need to start actually seeing some positive signs start popping up at the surface. We are under 100 hours from where the big pieces need to be taking shape for this thing to work. Small changes are nice but it needs to start translating to the surface more as time is starting to become an issue before long.
 
iGRXY said:
Now is the time where we need to start actually seeing some positive signs start popping up at the surface. We are under 100 hours from where the big pieces need to be taking shape for this thing to work. Small changes are nice but it needs to start translating to the surface more as time is starting to become an issue before long.
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We need help with the cold air advection. Some way, some how we need Something to shuffle up in Canad/NE a touch or two.
 
Icon is slowly inching the doughnut in the NWT E which is flattening the flow a bit across Can and the energy in SE Can/NE is leaking east (not great). It's south again with the SW closing off over NM/ W tx
 
iGRXY said:
Based on surface temps and the 925’s I would’ve thought there would be more snow in the upstate.
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Icons physics are a little different it determines snow vs rain if the sfc temp is close to freezing Vs other models wheres it still possible to snow in the mid 30s
 
That probably puts a fork into the last second phase idea. Now it's all about the track of the h5 and mid level low centers, where does the best ML convergence set up, how cold is the antecedent air mass, and how much of a deep N/NE flow can be established to pull in cold and change folks over. Along and west of 85 should be licking their chops, good luck to the rest of us peasants
 
SD said:
That probably puts a fork into the last second phase idea. Now it's all about the track of the h5 and mid level low centers, where does the best ML convergence set up, how cold is the antecedent air mass, and how much of a deep N/NE flow can be established to pull in cold and change folks over. Along and west of 85 should be licking their chops, good luck to the rest of us peasants
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typically i agree with this but the ull is a big fat slow target. lot of time left and wouldn't take many SE adjustments to bring a phase back into the picture. it's just plausible enough to give me a reason to live
 
Upper level lows are notorious for doing wild things that are pretty hard to forecast even 12 to 24 hours before an event... even without a phase with northern stream energy it can be super sneaky. If we get into NAM range and it is showing an ICON-like solution... we're gonna see some 'iconic' snow maps across parts of the Carolinas
 
smking7 said:
Upper level lows are notorious for doing wild things that are pretty hard to forecast even 12 to 24 hours before an event... even without a phase with northern stream energy it can be super sneaky. If we get into NAM range and it is showing an ICON-like solution... we're gonna see some 'iconic' snow maps across parts of the Carolinas
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Yep, sooo much qpf the margin for error is especially large. Still likely to get screwed but that 1% what if keeps me reaching for my phone at 6am hoping to see 4 new pages.
 
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