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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

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ILMRoss said:
i've been thinking about that @griteater observation from earlier in the day about the orientation/tilt of the big ridge and i think if we could pull off a better tilt to allow an anticyclonic wave breaking event to lower heights more in this area... it would be really really nice
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Hmm, I'm actually not sure if I'm in the same camp on this one or not. I actually think that the ridge getting pinched is resulting in a better outcome as it is sharpening the east side of the ridge, forcing energy to dive into the trough at the last minute. That, along with a little slower trend of the southern ULL would open the door to phasing more and/or allowing more cold to make it into the system. We're starting to enter that timezone where legitimate trends are going to start appearing on the ops.

As @Myfrotho704_ and @griteater and others have discussed, there are so many small details feeding into this it is really tough to even suss out everything that is effecting the setup. Just in the map below there are 4 clear closed ULLs impacting the setup, with many more small vortices that could continue to result in adjustments.

gem_z500_vort_namer_fh138_trend.gif
 
This has been so fascinating to watch the models slowly hone in on this setup. The northern stream bending back west on all modeling is very interesting, if that trend continues we will be seeing weenie runs shortly. Also noticing a trend of slowing down the southern wave on this 0z cycle which could increase chance of phasing!

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FYI, tropical tidbits is down (outage), no restoration time yet...Levi is working on it

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Looking at the CMCE (hr 168 Tuesday evening) quite a few members keep the low near the SE coast. Could certainly be an impressive coastal system especially if that southern wave slows and any phasing occurs with the NS
eb7e19f4a40157fbc3db4ab33054911e.gif


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Last line of RAHs overnight discussion:
............... "Given the continued track uncertainty, we kept precip
types all rain, but a more wrapped up system and further north track
could complicate ptypes if enough cold air were to advect into the
area."

So, wintery precip is not probable, but is still possible.
 
Chazwin said:
View attachment 144494
This is for Monday morning. Can someone explain to how a 994 low just off Charleston gives this as a QPF response??
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My guess is because there is a lot of energy associated with that wave, the low that does form is not consolidated enough to produce a large precip shield, but if and when the phasing process kicks in, that ballgame will change.

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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
My guess is because there is a lot of energy associated with that wave, the low that does form is not consolidated enough to produce a large precip shield, but if and when the phasing process kicks in, that ballgame will change.

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It does continue to strengthen. Maybe as RAH stated it will "wrap up" more and push precip to the NW. I would think this is probable (with the below look).

At hour 144:
1706700659902.png

Lots of changes still coming (for good or bad).
 
SD said:
View attachment 144496
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Bingo
It's such a battle with the placement of the northern stream vort. On one hand, it'll provide the Carolinas with a colder air source and a potential phase that would lead to a much more dynamic and expansive precip field.

But then you have the negative affects of the northern stream shown here, i.e. if you get stuck with a late phase, you are battling with very dry and sinking air on the back side of the northern stream air that inhibits much precip growth on the northern flank of the southern ULLdownload (1).png
 
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We've definitely pretty much lost the EPS. I would say the probs of this one working out are definitely fading. Worth keeping an eye on still, but unless we see some definitive positive moves today (including with the Euro suite), this is probably going to end up like the rest of our wintry hopes and dreams have the past two years in the Carolinas.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-7350400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-7350400.png
 
SD said:
View attachment 144496
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Good post. Way too many people on here see a "L" off the coast and think we should automatically be getting 1" QPF statewide every time, when it really doesn't work that way at all. Upper levels -- especially if you live inland -- are far more important than people realize. Think about how many sub 990 mb lows that are hurricanes scrape the Carolina coast with rain barely making it (or not at all) to RDU west.
 
The Euro & Ensemble are warmer because no energy like shown on the Canadian & even the GFS pinwheels down & provides a cold air feed. That energy actually revamps another low which then throws back moisture into the cold air pushed down. Euro has some dislodgment but it never connects. Just my take.IMG_7626.pngIMG_7625.pngIMG_7624.png
 
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1300m said:
Good post. Way too many people on here see a "L" off the coast and think we should automatically be getting 1" QPF statewide every time, when it really doesn't work that way at all. Upper levels -- especially if you live inland -- are far more important than people realize. Think about how many sub 990 mb lows that are hurricanes scrape the Carolina coast with rain barely making it (or not at all) to RDU west.
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Euro has been doing this for days minus 1 or 2 runs. The 0z cmc is really the playbook if you live in NC and want snow. This flat wave and deep ENE to NE flow in the MLs isn't going to work. It'll be hard to overlap cold and moisture without zapping the dgz in this setup
 
Mitch West said:
The Euro & Ensemble are warmer because no energy like shown on the Canadian & even the GFS pinwheels down & provides a cold air feed. That energy actually revamps another low which then throws back moisture into the cold air pushed down. Euro has some dislodgment but it never connects. Just my take.View attachment 144503View attachment 144504View attachment 144505
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Definitely agree. And it’s definitely not impossible still at this lead time to see some significant adjustments still, but personally seeing the EPS with only a handful of members showing this happening (and dwindling each run) doesn’t inspire much confidence. Maybe the 12z runs will turn the momentum around.
 
SD said:
Euro has been doing this for days minus 1 or 2 runs. The 0z cmc is really the playbook if you live in NC and want snow. This flat wave and deep ENE to NE flow in the MLs isn't going to work. It'll be hard to overlap cold and moisture without zapping the dgz in this setup
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And the fact the CMC is the playbook is a huge red flag haha. But totally agree, the window is really narrowing but it isn’t closed yet.
 
ILMRoss said:
Im more sanguine- I thought steps were made in the right direction last night and think there’s a good chance the momentum continues

No eps blows but is not a death knell
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Please don't take this as argumentative or anything, this is just a "what am I missing" question but.... I'm just genuinely curious if you think the Euro took positive steps (that maybe I'm missing) or are you just referring to the non-Euro suite of guidance, because the below trend looks pretty bad (to me) on the Euro the past 3 runs in tandem with the diminishing signal from the EPS.

ecmwf_z500_vort_namer_fh138_trend (2).gif
 
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