Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

[Myfrotho704_]

Cold feed better this run

 

[NCSNOW]

Makes its own just cold enough air on northern and western qpf fields with rates. Thats the route we gotta take

 

[NCSNOW]

Lose some qpf as rain as it moves in , then once she gets to coast, we change

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Icon all over the area GEFS has been hinting at the last couple days. Not saying it’s right. I’m just saying

 

[KyloG]

CAE just dumped on…qpf nuts

 

[accu35]

Let’s start the 0z right here for you NC/SC peeps

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CAE just dumped on…qpf nuts

View attachment 144442

Imagine if even half of that was frozen up into WNC/the upstate

 

[ILMRoss]

View attachment 144441
Let’s start the 0z right here for you NC/SC peeps

could be a lot more if you play your cards right

 

[NCSNOW]

Check out this progression All dynamic driving. And the low does a 100 mile south jog lol

 

[iGRXY]

Cold feed better this run View attachment 144436View attachment 144437View attachment 144438

Based on surface temps and the 925’s I would’ve thought there would be more snow in the upstate.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Based on surface temps and the 925’s I would’ve thought there would be more snow in the upstate.

Icons physics are a little different it determines snow vs rain if the sfc temp is close to freezing Vs other models wheres it still possible to snow in the mid 30s

 

[SD]

That probably puts a fork into the last second phase idea. Now it's all about the track of the h5 and mid level low centers, where does the best ML convergence set up, how cold is the antecedent air mass, and how much of a deep N/NE flow can be established to pull in cold and change folks over. Along and west of 85 should be licking their chops, good luck to the rest of us peasants

 

[lexxnchloe]

could be a lot more if you play your cards right

The way the low just hangs around a few degrees colder and it could be 15+ inches

 

[NCSNOW]

Dare I say Gfs looks even better than icon over ne, cold feed out through 72

 

[ILMRoss]

That probably puts a fork into the last second phase idea. Now it's all about the track of the h5 and mid level low centers, where does the best ML convergence set up, how cold is the antecedent air mass, and how much of a deep N/NE flow can be established to pull in cold and change folks over. Along and west of 85 should be licking their chops, good luck to the rest of us peasants

typically i agree with this but the ull is a big fat slow target. lot of time left and wouldn't take many SE adjustments to bring a phase back into the picture. it's just plausible enough to give me a reason to live

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[smking7]

Upper level lows are notorious for doing wild things that are pretty hard to forecast even 12 to 24 hours before an event... even without a phase with northern stream energy it can be super sneaky. If we get into NAM range and it is showing an ICON-like solution... we're gonna see some 'iconic' snow maps across parts of the Carolinas

 

[DopplerWx]

Upper level lows are notorious for doing wild things that are pretty hard to forecast even 12 to 24 hours before an event... even without a phase with northern stream energy it can be super sneaky. If we get into NAM range and it is showing an ICON-like solution... we're gonna see some 'iconic' snow maps across parts of the Carolinas

Yep, sooo much qpf the margin for error is especially large. Still likely to get screwed but that 1% what if keeps me reaching for my phone at 6am hoping to see 4 new pages.

 

[hky1894]

Gfs looks interesting so far definitely different than 18z

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[Triplephase93]

Foothills and mountains only event. Possibly north. Been that way for 3 days.