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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

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Lose some qpf as rain as it moves in , then once she gets to coast, we change
 
iGRXY said:
Based on surface temps and the 925’s I would’ve thought there would be more snow in the upstate.
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Icons physics are a little different it determines snow vs rain if the sfc temp is close to freezing Vs other models wheres it still possible to snow in the mid 30s
 
That probably puts a fork into the last second phase idea. Now it's all about the track of the h5 and mid level low centers, where does the best ML convergence set up, how cold is the antecedent air mass, and how much of a deep N/NE flow can be established to pull in cold and change folks over. Along and west of 85 should be licking their chops, good luck to the rest of us peasants
 
SD said:
That probably puts a fork into the last second phase idea. Now it's all about the track of the h5 and mid level low centers, where does the best ML convergence set up, how cold is the antecedent air mass, and how much of a deep N/NE flow can be established to pull in cold and change folks over. Along and west of 85 should be licking their chops, good luck to the rest of us peasants
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typically i agree with this but the ull is a big fat slow target. lot of time left and wouldn't take many SE adjustments to bring a phase back into the picture. it's just plausible enough to give me a reason to live
 
Upper level lows are notorious for doing wild things that are pretty hard to forecast even 12 to 24 hours before an event... even without a phase with northern stream energy it can be super sneaky. If we get into NAM range and it is showing an ICON-like solution... we're gonna see some 'iconic' snow maps across parts of the Carolinas
 
smking7 said:
Upper level lows are notorious for doing wild things that are pretty hard to forecast even 12 to 24 hours before an event... even without a phase with northern stream energy it can be super sneaky. If we get into NAM range and it is showing an ICON-like solution... we're gonna see some 'iconic' snow maps across parts of the Carolinas
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Yep, sooo much qpf the margin for error is especially large. Still likely to get screwed but that 1% what if keeps me reaching for my phone at 6am hoping to see 4 new pages.
 
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