Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Might have to hang it up

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@SD

 

[BIG FROSTY]

CMC looks good ! View attachment 144461

Not really, to far east with the precip for my liking !

 

[NCSNOW]

Still going

 

[Carolina Sky]

View attachment 144466

As wet as it's been this winter I just don't think the precip is going to stay off-shore.

 

[Carolina Sky]

Still a week to go for the classic NW movement, too.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

These runs aren’t blips either, now all the OP models have the northern stream vort hanging right by which is the supply for our cold, GFS is just to far south with the main closed low

 

[Metwannabe]

That GFS run really wasn't far off from the ICON paste job from last night. Extremely close to late phase, this one ain't over

 

[NCSNOW]

@Meteorologist1999 ?

Wheres he at. They never get hit like that.

Im seeing a consensus. All 3 ops so far pop a deepening low right on SC coast, Canadian a few miles north of GFS and Icon, which are both right on top of each other. They all sit there floundering around and draw in more colder air as they deepen.

 

[SD]

Deformation band nuketown

 

[Stevo24]

Seems like every run the snow is in a different place. No consistency at all.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Deformation band nuketown View attachment 144475

First run in years where we can pull out a FGEN map for something that’s not the nam. We are slowly healing

 

[Carolina Sky]

Seems like every run the snow is in a different place. No consistency at all.

It's 7 days out. You must be new to this.

 

[SD]

First run in years where we can pull out a FGEN map for something that’s not the nam. We are slowly healing

 

[Stevo24]

It's 7 days out. You must be new to this.

I think this is different than most setups

 

[LukeBarrette]

These runs aren’t blips either, now all the OP models have the northern stream vort hanging right by which is the supply for our cold, GFS is just to far south with the main closed low View attachment 144471View attachment 144472View attachment 144473

Suppression bias too ?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Encouraging to see a little love from the 12z suite tonight. 2/3 with some snow and GFS was close. Chalk it up as a win.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like the gefs is gonna exactly follow it’s OP, which was nudging the northern stream west more then previous runs

 

[1300m]

My mouth is starting to water....

 

[ILMRoss]

My mouth is starting to water....

View attachment 144481

i've been thinking about that @griteater observation from earlier in the day about the orientation/tilt of the big ridge and i think if we could pull off a better tilt to allow an anticyclonic wave breaking event to lower heights more in this area... it would be really really nice