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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

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ILMRoss said:
let me address this right now- jan 2000 resulted in millions (tens of millions? hundreds of millions?) being pumped into modeling research and development to make sure a catastrophic failure like that doesn't happen again. that storm was a mega surprise for all of i95. we're not going to see a surprise like that again.
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I don't think so, but still have 7 days for this to change. Just saying we could see changes up until a couple of days out like what happened with the Christmas 2010 storm. Maybe not 12 hours out like what happened in 2000. But I just think we're going to see the precip come west and it'll be more about the cold supply than lack of precip.
 
Carolina Crusher said:
I don't think so, but still have 7 days for this to change. Just saying we could see changes up until a couple of days out like what happened with the Christmas 2010 storm. Maybe not 12 hours out like what happened in 2000. But I just think we're going to see the precip come west and it'll be more about the cold supply than lack of precip.
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ya. agreed. not singling out you, just know there's a ton of lurkers that equate jan 2000 to this forecasting nightmare and think it could still happen
 
UKMET and Canadian don't look good. Too far south with the low for snow from what I could see. Not sure how H5 looked.
 
packfan98 said:
UKMET and Canadian don't look good. Too far south with the low for snow from what I could see. Not sure how H5 looked.
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UK = bad with both energies
CMC = further south with southern stream, but major improvement in northern stream, so not really a improvement or worsening trend yet, considering we need that up top
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
not that the first trough matters anymore much just goes to show how much this setup can change View attachment 144592
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Love seeing those Alaska and PAC Northwest disturbances easing a bit; less strain on the Central US ridge to retrograde eastward and gives our northern stream friend more westward wiggle room down the line if it holds
 
500hv.conus.png


500hv.conus.png



That NS energy needs to be a hair quicker and more robust
 
Maybe that vort of energy over GL screws the pooch, want let flow back in an sharpen, get those lines going N/S, neutral
 
Euro wants to take this little vort over KS on a ride of a lifetime over the next week. It survives the trek over the mountainous omega block, while other global models fizzle most of it over Canada. Not sure how much (if any) this piece affects our overall evolution, but it's interesting to watch it unfold!

Vort.gif
 
Just looking at soundings and there's still a path to victory for an isothermal nuking in a small area around the southeastern mountains/escarpment even down to foothill elevations.

This would be late Sunday night/Monday morning and isn't reliant on the phasing/CAA feed that potentially comes later.

I'm curious to see how the hi-res models handle it when they get in range, (assuming the heavy band of precip makes in to this region during that time frame.)

Here's a GFS sounding below from northern greenville county in SC with no elevation valid Monday at 1am. With heavy precip rates they'd be possibly looking at heavy snow.
.Screen Shot 2024-01-31 at 4.04.52 PM.png
 
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