Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

[ILMRoss]

FWIW, the 12z ukmet says no to a timely phase. Gonna be a tough hill to climb, but who knows.

View attachment 144558

euro and uk vs the american suite. basically the ryder cup

 

[Mitch West]

Man what an incredible move by the GFS. The definition of phasing & yanking down cold air.

 

[Carolina Sky]

let me address this right now- jan 2000 resulted in millions (tens of millions? hundreds of millions?) being pumped into modeling research and development to make sure a catastrophic failure like that doesn't happen again. that storm was a mega surprise for all of i95. we're not going to see a surprise like that again.

I don't think so, but still have 7 days for this to change. Just saying we could see changes up until a couple of days out like what happened with the Christmas 2010 storm. Maybe not 12 hours out like what happened in 2000. But I just think we're going to see the precip come west and it'll be more about the cold supply than lack of precip.

 

[ILMRoss]

I don't think so, but still have 7 days for this to change. Just saying we could see changes up until a couple of days out like what happened with the Christmas 2010 storm. Maybe not 12 hours out like what happened in 2000. But I just think we're going to see the precip come west and it'll be more about the cold supply than lack of precip.

ya. agreed. not singling out you, just know there's a ton of lurkers that equate jan 2000 to this forecasting nightmare and think it could still happen

 

[NoSnowATL]

Man what an incredible move by the GFS. The definition of phasing & yanking down cold air. View attachment 144560

Better for the NE, might be too late for the south besides NW NC

 

[CaryWx]

Man what an incredible move by the GFS. The definition of phasing & yanking down cold air. View attachment 144560

Looks way late to me Mitch and just a cold front drug thru. For our parts anyway

 

[smking7]

"Too late" for a system that isn't even in range of high-resolution modeling; meanwhile, we're still seeing substantial shifts in northern stream vorts a mere 72 hours out ?

 

[1300m]

GEFS looking better, lets see how much it translates in the snow means.

 

[KyloG]

GEFS looking better, lets see how much it translates in the snow means.
View attachment 144562

Getting exactly what we want from day 5-6 out...now dig you POS

 

[packfan98]

We have a winner!

 

[BullCityWx]

Significant bump in the means from 6z

 

[Chandler]

Big fan of the gefs precip type map ? (probably skewed)

 

[packfan98]

Starting to see some of the members with the low gaining some latitude up the coast. This one gives the eastern seaboard some love. Others are just off shore, but starting to round the bend and go poleward.

 

[DopplerWx]

We have a winner!
View attachment 144565

If the gfs showed this right now we would all be sweating bullets knowing it would trend nw lol

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[1300m]

GEFS definitely increased some. Quite a few members with snow.

 

[1300m]

 

[Broken024]

View attachment 144573

GEFS - I have no idea what’s going to happen so here are 20 different outcomes.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This one just won’t die

 

[packfan98]

UKMET and Canadian don't look good. Too far south with the low for snow from what I could see. Not sure how H5 looked.