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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

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Similar to the ICON, the GFS is trending quite similarly over the last four runs with that northern stream... just gotta keep digging and/or slow down that southern ULL
Absolutely. If we can get a combo of this continued northern stream trend with some help with the ULL we are going to be looking at an absolute QPF bomb.
 
damn. Can’t help but feel like we really blew another one View attachment 144676

This isn't just blowing another one. This is probably one of the worst fails I have seen ever in my life, in regards to the snow amounts this would have been for everyone.

It will be 25 years + before this idea is seen again.
 
This isn't just blowing another one. This is probably one of the worst fails I have seen ever in my life, in regards to the snow amounts this would have been for everyone.

It will be 25 years + before this idea is seen again.
This isn’t as bad as our fail in January 2022. With this one, we really only had one Euro Op with a snowstorm, everything else was just ensembles.

In January 2022, I remember a couple Euro runs where Savannah to Blacksburg has 12in+ swaths 144 hrs out. Although we saw something, the failed opportunity still bugs me
 
The trends are pretty surprising, tbh. It really wouldn't take all that much more to explode this thing right along the coast. You could essentially pick one of probably 3 different things that need some slight tweaking to mKe it happen.

I know we haven't had the best luck in the last few years, but this is honestly not all that far off...not for 5 or 6 days out or whatever.
 
4 run trend, steady progress west with the NS vort...
df7283e8b86b8c67e63d0e9331f42e28.gif


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