Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Rip. Hopefully these heavier precip rates coupled w/ a stupid strong warm nose save our bacon.
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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Fudge.
12z Canadian wants to bring RDU to its knees. Of course we've seen these type of crazy outputs in the past.
QPF:
QPF:
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
You got accum with that product?
Even the FRAM is stupid but fortunately the GDPS is always too cold, can't really deny the trends though and I think some of y'all in and around the triangle that missed out Saturday will get your chance this time.
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
Gotta be a blip right? RDU usually on the fringe of these events. Not the main show.
snowlover91
Member
What concerns me is the NAM ticking colder combined with the GFS showing a good deal of ZR. The GFS seems to struggle with CAD and the fact even it is quite aggressive with totals is concerning.
here’s my first call for the this nasty looking ice storm 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
+10-13°C warm nose at just 850mb. Good luck getting sleet w/ that...
? what a warm nose. That's the whole warm chin
Yeah I’m thinking if there any heavy IP, it’ll be for areas more north at the onset, especially in VA, for areas south we seem to always pull Ts-.1s with a evap cooling at the onset
Oh and that warm nose may be strong enough to bring in some elevated thunderstorms, wonder if that speeds up the process of latent heat release, there may be legit thunder/ZR in some areas
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 3km NAM has ~100 j/kg MUCAPE in some of these soundings, any moist convection that gets going is gonna do a number on the low-level cold dome by dumping warm(er) rain into it w/ rain drops warming to ~55F just a few thousand feet off the sfc. This is exactly why I've refrained from going w/ ZR totals higher than 0.33" east of the mountains, because the heavier rates and warmer rain drops falling into the dome could take longer to freeze and rapidly warm the temps up to freezing or beyond. If we had a longer duration event w/ lower precip rates like the last ice storm, it might be all over but the crying for widespread 0.4-0.5"+ amounts, but I don't think we can be really confident in much more than 0.25-0.33" atm.
cyclogent
Member
No words. ??modernweenie
Don’t mean to rain on your parade, but mostly rain with mangled flakes ?? That sounding is just asking for a little intrusion of warm air to ruin everything
I’m just messin lol, kinda
It's going to depend on the temps. The one thing that is concerning (or not if you want ice), is the initial cold airmass. Dew points in the teens usually signal big winter storms for our area.
Stormsfury
Member
Yep. Best bet is to hope rainfall rates are so heavy, it runs offs versus efficient accretion...with such torched 850mb, heavy rates may offset maximum accretion efficiency
Rude