Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

UK coming in colder it appears.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh my

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Oh my View attachment 75556

Global ketchup time.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

UKMET has GSO at 29 w/ ZR

 

[Shaggy]

Rip. Hopefully these heavier precip rates coupled w/ a stupid strong warm nose save our bacon.

View attachment 75533

I'm glad we're not getting the ice but I'm about tired of the rain to

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Goofy
More reasonable
The most realistic

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Oh my View attachment 75556

Quit playin

 

[deltadog03]

Looks like it’s a 45 and rainy day again here

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

My first call map for this ice storm. Expect the highest totals in the Blue Ridge Escarpment from Blowing Rock & pts north, probably close to a 0.25" in the Triad.

View attachment 75485

Dang Webb you gave me “up to .1” that’s respect homie ✌??

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

Rip. Hopefully these heavier precip rates coupled w/ a stupid strong warm nose save our bacon.

View attachment 75533

I still think that southeastern escarpment will get hard IF that CAD can entrench that far south. Rates would be heavy. Sheesh.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

From what I’ve been reading looks like this historic warm nose is going to prevent anything other than nuisance tree-topper ice event! Eh Warm nose ftw!


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[Webberweather53]

UKMET has GSO at 29 w/ ZR

Damn if the RGEM is actually right, I eat my hat and GSO gets down to 26-27F at the sfc w/ these kind of rates. It's ova weenies

 

[Stormlover]

Rap

 

[Webberweather53]

I can already tell based on 12z model runs that this 18z NWS Blend of Models FRAM is gonna be a lot worse in NC

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Still looks like freezing rain in the Triad to me, that warm nose is absolutely ridiculous and the 925mb level is almost at the sfc over the Triad due to elevation. The near sfc cold layer doesn't look deep or strong enough to offset that absurd near +10°C warm nose at 850mb & I doubt there would be refreezing. If the warm nose was <5°C then you might have a point here, but that's way too strong

View attachment 75496

Although sleet looks unlikely (although we can always hope) that layer is deep enough to probably super cool those raindrops and making them easier to freeze on contact .. even with higher rates .. would be interesting to see

 

[packfan98]

I can already tell based on 12z model runs that this 18z NWS Blend of Models FRAM is gonna be a lot worse in NC

What time do those come out?

 

[HugeSnowStick]

21 at my house wind chill 5.

 

[Webberweather53]

What time do those come out?

The 12z run came out just after 9am, so look for the 18z NWS Blend of Models FRAM to come out just after 3pm eastern or so.

 

[Stormlover]

Rap at 9pm wed

 

[JimRussell]

Rap at 9pm wed View attachment 75564

I haven't been tracking this system that much but from what little I have read and seen, for north alabama, are we looking at wintry precip early on and then a changeover to rain?