Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wow the 12z High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) FRAM mean is insane lol. Suggesting >0.5" for parts of the I-85 corridor between the Triad & Triangle.
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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Holy smokes, verbatim would be warning criteria for a row of counties east and south of the current WSW..... HREF accuracy?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd say overall FRAM from HREF mean is respectable and definitely something you can hang your hat more on than any individual CAM & certainly over global models.
Here are the high resolution models that go into it. It's basically a CAM mean of the 12z plus 0z runs.
Wtf lol
MY SISTERS ... okay well the writing is on the wall ... for us “weenies” who were thrown around the walls and spat on yesterday for saying there could be a chance that this CAD trends colder than what models are showing 48 hours out ... I am here with you AND WE WILL STAND STRONG ??? I’m just messin around but in all seriousness this is getting fairly serious with models coming in colder especially globals .. that’s a recipe for disaster when they usually under-model CAD even this far out .. I hope for the sake of the power grid this ain’t that bad for everyone but i unfortunate think it will be more of a nuisance for more people than previously thought
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If we can get sfc temps to drop about another 2F or so vs the models leading into this event, things could start getting ugly even down into the parts of the Triangle area (esp just NW of downtown Raleigh). I'm not ready to buy that yet esp given the potential for convective-type precip that could quickly raise sfc temps to freezing, but we seem to be headed in a direction that could end up being more than just a nuisance event for folks in Franklin, southern Granville, NW Wake, south-central Durham, northern Chatham, & south-central Orange counties. (RDU Airport, Durham, Chapel Hill, Creedmoor, Youngsville, etc)
Dewpoint Dan
Member
That dancing weiner is highly disturbing.
Brick sighting in 3, 2, 1
Also should be interesting to see what the euro does (it’s still bad with low level cold, for example the last system) if it comes in colder,
Oof load size needs to be turned on high, not max but high
Also should be interesting to see what the euro does (it’s still bad with low level cold, for example the last system) if it comes in colder,
Oof load size needs to be turned on high, not max but high
Looking at the euro early on, at H5 the TPV has sped up a tad vs 00z/06z
Hopefully that doesn’t raise More heights up there
Hopefully that doesn’t raise More heights up there
Yuck. Not liking those darker colors showing up more towards the CLT metro. Even Rock Hill/Monroe getting in on some action. Any colder runs/stronger HP and things could get ugly for a lot of the populated metros of the state.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Last 4 days of 12z UKMET runs.
Ok, this trend can stop now...
Ok, this trend can stop now...
Gonna be 32 in CLT by 00z tonight lol
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I have a very hard time believing the cold and ice the models are showing for here. I expect more cold rain for Wake from this one.
Oh chittt 
Chitt is right. Like you said it tends to run to warm at the surface. Trends aren't in our favor if you like power. My only hope would be that Triad can see some more sleet since they've already been hit hard.
Oh no 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Things you hate to see: that 12z Euro run. Not a good sign when it’s showing 31-32F in RDU already