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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Lots to watch here today. Trends in how warm the warm nose is. Slight shifts SE or NW? Total QPF. Our last failed WSW was mainly because it ended up much drier than modeled. .3 vs.75 and you could see the models trending down in QPF the last 18 to 24 hours. Euro is on the dry side of solutions and 6Z NAM ticked drier. We'll see if that's a trend. Just say no to ZR!
 
Bsud said:
You didn't think liberty was gonna get any snow last time either, and went to NC.

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Yeah and I saw about a inch to inch and a half more then liberty got. But in all seriousness GSP made the right call with the winter weather advisory for this one. While a lot of us may see 33 and rain. I do think a few areas around the county could see 32 and freezing rain. It be in pockets like liberty may see rain while Pickens is a degree colder and getting freezing rain. And there certainly could be isolated slick spots resulting in wrecks tomorrow morning. In a result to the winter weather advisory I do expect schools to announce a virtual learning day. I’m not saying we won’t see Ice what I am saying is it will be so borderline 33 and rain is the likely outcome. While so areas could get 32 and a little bit of ice 0.05-0.10 is my expectation for Pickens county now close to the NC border could see a little bit more 0.10-0.20 perhaps. Everyone misses one sometimes


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NCSNOW said:
Friday 12z. thats what 7am friday morning?
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That would still be RDU westward. Now if you look at the HRW models, it drops nearly 1" on RDU and then shows a secondary bath of freezing rain moving towards the Triangle at hour 48. **but this model has shown these types of clown outputs in the past. NAM is the way to go right now.
 
Well, if this in-house model is correct on temperatures for the Triad, we are in for a crippling ice storm. It’s a bad feeling seeing all of these projections and forecasts knowing the result is that you are more than likely going to lose power for at least a couple of days. No fun! Ice storms are the only time I pull for a bust on the low side of the guidance. Here's hoping for a warmer, NW trend!
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Webberweather53 said:
3km NAM is still spitting out a +10C ish warm nose at KGSO 12z tomorrow. I'm comparing it to other prominent ZR events in the Triad and I've still yet to find one w/ a stronger warm nose than that lol
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In searching thru the archived sounding data paired w/ my winter storm maps, I have found at least one storm w/ a comparable warm nose to what we're seeing in the models. This ice storm in late December 1993:

Widespread 0.25"-0.5" ice totals were observed from Charlotte-RDU & pts NW towards the Triad.

December 28-29 1993 NC Snowmap.png


This is the observed sounding from GSO at 12z December 28 1993. There's obviously still some low-mid level dry air but the warm nose was ~+10°C just below 900mb. Once the column saturated, the warm nose came out to be ~+6-7°C w/ surface temps falling throughout the event from near-freezing at the onset to 27-28F at the end.

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Here's the 0z Dec 29 1993 KGSO sounding

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Webberweather53 said:
In searching thru the archived sounding data paired w/ my winter storm maps, I have found at least one storm w/ a comparable warm nose to what we're seeing in the models. This ice storm in late December 1993:

Widespread 0.25"-0.5" ice totals were observed from Charlotte-RDU & pts NW towards the Triad.

View attachment 75802


This is the observed sounding from GSO at 12z December 28 1993. There's obviously still some low-mid level dry air but the warm nose was ~+10°C just below 900mb. Once the column saturated, the warm nose came out to be ~+6-7°C w/ surface temps falling throughout the event from near-freezing at the onset to 27-28F at the end.

View attachment 75803


Here's the 0z Dec 29 1993 KGSO sounding

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Thank goodness it won’t be as bad as that one around here at least, for areas north, oof
 
One thing I noticed this morning was the extensive layer of high clouds this morning. That is going to limit warming. I don't recall any forecast saying we'd be mostly cloudy this morning on.
 
ryan1234 said:
One thing I noticed this morning was the extensive layer of high clouds this morning. That is going to limit warming. I don't recall any forecast saying we'd be mostly cloudy this morning on.
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Yeah, I am almost completely cloudy. I said last night I would watch out to see if we actually make it above 40 today.
 
12z National Blend of Models FRAM. Again, multiply these totals by 40% verbatim because you have to convert ice accrual from a horizontal, flat sfc to radial ice accumulation on trees and power lines. Oth, given that these amounts are definitely very damped due to dispersion between various models, you also should mentally take out much less than that. You certainly should look at individual models FRAM to get a sense for what the local max values will be however. They're generally in the ballpark of 0.4-0.5" or so. Also, they'll likely be more than that in isolated areas because the model won't be able to resolve it.

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superjames1992 said:
Winter Storm this morning here, I see. Definitely concerned about losing my power now. Chatham and Wake are under an Advisory, so I’m on the southern periphery of the Warning, though.
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Yeah, very concerned up here.


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I’m curious to see if any of that could make it to the Tuscaloosa area before turning to rain especially since there are winter advisory out close to the county
 
I am confused. The NAM total snow accumuations looks like this, only when you watch the radar it does not show any real frozen precip moving through my area (Dalton, Ga.). I'm really just looking for someone to explain to me why it looks like North Georgia has accumulating snow/sleet when the radar shows only rain.
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