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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

SD said:
Probably so. I think for the parts of Al/Ms that had significant freezing rain there is a decent chance for a change to rain this time but depending when that occurs it may be too late to really matter
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Think we will get any snow??
 
Robert West said:
This will trend colder all the way to the start of the event. That snowpack & refrigerated air North & West of us is no joke. This will be an icing event all the way to Charlotte potentially. Triad has a chance to trend to more sleet I think.
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Yeah while H5 is still a complete disaster, our source region isn’t bare ground for this CAD setup, and maybe why the last one ticked a little bit colder then modeled
 
Webberweather53 said:
Still looks like freezing rain in the Triad to me, that warm nose is absolutely ridiculous and the 925mb level is almost at the sfc over the Triad due to elevation. The near sfc cold layer doesn't look deep or strong enough to offset that absurd near +10°C warm nose at 850mb & I doubt there would be refreezing. If the warm nose was <5°C then you might have a point here, but that's way too strong

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I just did the math, those 850 temps are pushing 60!! I Wish I didn't live at the surface!
 
MichaelJ said:
I REALLY don't like the way this is trending for the NW Piedmont, Triad and west. I am totally discounting the RGEM for both amount and temps and think we should now start putting more credence in the 3K Nam, not the 12km
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I wouldn't discount anything at this point. Models have been trending toward RGEM.
 
Is this looking like more of a credible threat for the Triangle than the last couple threats of ice? Just got put under a Winter Storm Watch.
 
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