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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Point of that is the temps are coming in colder and colder. It would surprise me to see runs with temps around 30 degrees even in the upstate by tomorrow. You’re seeing that 0.25-0.5 line slide down to the 85 corridor now.
 
The sleet showing up on the NAM does not match its soundings. It is still a freezing rain storm and a bad one at that.
 
Ethan80963 said:
I wonder if GSP will expand the winter storm watch further south if this south trend keeps up.
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Might get a freezing rain advisory in the southern part of Greenville and Pickens counties. Maybe oconee to.


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.40” ice accrual in the heart of the Triad is gonna be a problem. However, if CLT and RDU get in on the action, just the sheer number of people affected will have a compounding effect on power restoration issues. I will say that it seems tough to get major freezing rain in all three major NC metros at once. Seems like we’ll trend toward more sleet if that happens, but it’s certainly not impossible.
 
Well, there hasn't been a major ice storm here since Dec 2002. Guess we are due.
 
Jessy89 said:
After this run I’d say I wouldn’t be surprised. to see southern part of Pickens and Greenville county get a freezing rain advisory. Won’t see nothing more then a light glaze with a temp around 32.


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If it really were to get to 32, remain 32 many hours, and the rain never gets moderate to heavy, there could potentially be more than a light glaze in the trees. You’d be surprised at how much can accrue right at 32.
 
NWS forecast for Florence AL is not optimistic for snow/sleet lovers...

Wednesday
A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Wind chill values between 11 and 21. East northeast wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night
Showers, mainly after 7pm. Low around 33. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Thursday
Rain showers before 7am, then freezing rain likely, possibly mixed with sleet between 7am and 9am, then rain showers likely after 9am. High near 38. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain showers before 9pm, then a slight chance of freezing rain between 9pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. North northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
GaWx said:
If it really were to get to 32, remain 32 many hours, and the rain never gets moderate to heavy, there could potentially be more than a light glaze in the trees. You’d be surprised at how much can accrue right at 32.
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I’m expecting 0.05-0.10 anything more then that would surprise me.


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We’re at 32 degrees now on the models. They have continually been getting colder and colder so upper 20’s to 30 at go time is not out the realm of possibilities anymore like it was yesterday.
 
The 3K FRAM

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I know this model stinks but I don't like the scattered lighter precip. That would mean more ice. Ugh Screenshot_20210216-213514.png
 
To me this has the best footprint of where I think ice will set up at this point. You have one CAM that’s likely well overdone with the ice and one that isn’t enough. This is a perfect blend of the two.
 

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Earlier AFD from MRX this evening. I'm at 17 degrees right now with a forecasted low of 20 ? Grasping because I desperately want to try out our new sled!

"I think the biggest factor to keep an
eye on will be surface temperatures tonight (Tuesday night) and
daytime highs on Wednesday. Sometimes the models don`t handle how
long a dense/cold air mass can stick around in the eastern TN
valley, and sometimes we are slower to warm up than models
previously indicated. 12z Models have come in slightly colder for
daytime highs on Wednesday indicating that they may be picking up on
this colder air sticking around longer than previously indicated. If
daytime daytime highs on Wednesday get stuck in the 30`s or
near/below 40 then we`ll not have as far to drop overnight to hit
that freezing mark... I may very well be wrong on this, but I think
keeping an eye on how temperatures are trending on daytime Wednesday
will be the first indicator for the predominant precipitation type
on Thursday morning in the Valley."
 
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