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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
RGEM coming in a little more sleety
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There's often some sleet at the onset of these ice storms as evaporative cooling allows hydrometeors to encapsulate themselves in locally cooler pockets of air as they fall thru an above freezing layer aloft. I don't expect it to last long as the warm advection takes over and more legitimate precip arrives
 
Interesting how temps cool On the nam which brings ZR this far south during the precip
 
packfan98 said:
I was thinking the same thing. This is a much stouter warm nose than last weekend. My suspicion (and hope) is that the heavy precip will scour out the wedge quickly and there will be less impact in the Triad than last weekend. It's close those, so every trend is crucial.
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Yeah I suspect this could be the case too which is why I kept my totals down towards 0.2-0.33 from the Triad area & pts north and we can certainly hope that a heavy burst of precip scours the wedge out, but I don't think it'll be easy.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I suspect this could be the case too which is why I kept my totals down towards 0.2-0.33 from the Triad area & pts north and we can certainly hope that a heavy burst of precip scours the wedge out, but I don't think it'll be easy.
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On the negative side, the system looks to be more suppressed. No more lows running towards the apps which would all but guarantee a low impact event outside the northern escarpment. The more southernly track is having an impact on the longevity of the wedge and keeping the upper levels cooler too. It's definitely a little concerning.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Still looks like freezing rain in the Triad to me, that warm nose is absolutely ridiculous and the 925mb level is almost at the sfc over the Triad due to elevation. The near sfc cold layer doesn't look deep or strong enough to offset that absurd near +10°C warm nose at 850mb & I doubt there would be refreezing. If the warm nose was <5°C then you might have a point here, but that's way too strong

View attachment 75496
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Perhaps the warm nose won’t be as strong if we end up with some sort of Miller track instead of an apps runner?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Interesting how temps cool On the nam which brings ZR this far south during the precip
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I said yesterday that this isn't a storm to sleep on and I got called a weeine. Lol. I'm not saying it'll continue to trend colder for Charlotte and this will up up becoming a sig zr storm but it's something to watch. I still think modeling is underestimating just how cold the air to the north of us is and the snowpack as well.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah I’m not liking the trends here, I find it strange how the NAM starts me out as rain then mid storm changes it to ZR
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Euro and RGEM has a similar look with the end of the storm getting colder I believe. Not sure where the cooling is coming from. Doesn't look like the low pressure off the coast would be strong enough to pull in cold like that? Can you tell where it's coming from?
 
Flotown said:
yeah looks like us in nw bama gonna get some more out of this
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Probably so. I think for the parts of Al/Ms that had significant freezing rain there is a decent chance for a change to rain this time but depending when that occurs it may be too late to really matter
 
This will trend colder all the way to the start of the event. That snowpack & refrigerated air North & West of us is no joke. This will be an icing event all the way to Charlotte potentially. Triad has a chance to trend to more sleet I think.
 
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