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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Jessy89 said:
Chris justice just did a Facebook live. He doesn’t see upstate sc getting much outside the extreme northern part close to nc border. Cold rain for most according to him


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He screwed the pooch on the last one bad so I’m taking what he says with a grain of salt.
 
00z RGEM came through with our daily dose of model candy. It had ZR in the Triad for almost 30 hours, then had backside snow for NE NC. I'll take some of whatever it's smoking.
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RDUHeatIsland said:
00z RGEM came through with our daily dose of model candy. It had ZR in the Triad for almost 30 hours, then had backside snow for NE NC. I'll take some of whatever it's smoking.
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Run isn't done on tidbits but you can see why it flipped parts of NC to snow toward the end of it's run with this H5 look about half way through the runrgem_z500_vort_us_57.png
 
RDUHeatIsland said:
00z RGEM came through with our daily dose of model candy. It had ZR in the Triad for almost 30 hours, then had backside snow for NE NC. I'll take some of whatever it's smoking.
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I’ve slowly been seeing this trend on some models .. some back side snow as the low has drifted much farther south and it almost looks like we get strong of lower pressure just giving us waves of precip until eventually that warm nose disappears
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I’ve slowly been seeing this trend on some models .. some back side snow as the low has drifted much farther south and it almost looks like we get strong of lower pressure just giving us waves of precip until eventually that warm nose disappears
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Agree, I have seen hints of it too. Not sure if it potentially leads to backside snow or just prolonged ice, but waves at the end of the event could prolong things.
 
Well I know what King Kong has taught us ... those SSW events are no joke and more than likely if u couple with a negative NAO it will produce some type of winter precip for the south and East ... this time no one is left unscathed ... except Florida I guess
 
Did get the brief 10 minute burst of mood flakes here as well. It dusted up the roads again before shutting off.

*Now* it's dry slot city for real, lol
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Well I know what King Kong has taught us ... those SSW events are no joke and more than likely if u couple with a negative NAO it will produce some type of winter precip for the south and East ... this time no one is left unscathed ... except Florida I guess
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And SOUTH CAROLINA
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I'm beginning to get worried you won't get 4-6" like I thought you would.
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The forecast for Dallas has been more like 2-4 at best but honestly the main event is still a couple hours away the hi res models show it backbuilding into the daytime hours

The stuff around Brownwood is what to watch that's supposed to blossom towards the metroplexScreenshot_20210216-220138-326.png
 
Well we know how freezing rain is a self limiting process thank god for that or this would have been a real ---- show ... oh wait. .... a stiff NE wind to keep the air cold and dry .... *gulps*

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Dewpoint Dan said:
I'm beginning to get worried you won't get 4-6" like I thought you would.
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I mean, it's still early. The snow wasn't really expected until after midnight.

We'll just have to watch radar trends as the night progresses. If it fills in faster, then the chances of several inches goes up.

HRRR is holding steadfast with 3-5", but it's an outlier. Hopefully it pulls a coup, lol.
 
SouthATLwx said:
I mean, it's still early. The snow wasn't really expected until after midnight.

We'll just have to watch radar trends as the night progresses. If it fills in faster, then the chances of several inches goes up.

HRRR is holding steadfast with 3-5", but it's an outlier. Hopefully it pulls a coup, lol.
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I'm wondering how we'll get an accurate measurement when we still have a solid snow cover tbh ? just filling in the footprints maybe to get an idea? ?

Never expected to have this problem lol
 
Those ne winds on that brad p. wind gust map, mid- upper 20s is very concerning. The soil is a sponge. So if it doesnt freeze, harden up. We will compound our problems.
 

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Stormlover said:
One TV met here in town said off the record that this could be a level 10 storm for a few hours or more. The kind it gets bad so fast some people get stuck, and if you are out somewhere working, etc, you might not get home. It looks to hit late rush hour too.
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Will it not change over to rain later that night?
 
Stephenb888 said:
This is gonna be nothing but cold rain in upstate sc (except maybe extreme northern) accept it and enjoy.
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It will depend on where you are at in the upstate. I could see north eastern upstate from Spartanburg to rock Hill seeing a decent little event. While I don’t expect no more then maybe 0.05-0.10 in my part of Pickens county


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One thing I’m noticing is even the short range models are whiffing on just how dry the airmass coming over the mountains is. My DP is already 19 and almost all the short range guidance has me in the mid 20’s right now. Those small tweaks are what can knock off an additional couple of degrees at go time
 
Stephenb888 said:
Maybe you will get some in Spartanburg. Even that’s pushing it.
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Listen, I get it. You haven’t had any wintry weather all season. That holds no weight in this event. Your area may not get anything but plenty of people in Greenville, Spartanburg, and Cherokee counties at a minimum are in the crosshairs for a serious ice potential. Don’t make a blanket statement like that when there’s nothing on your side both model guidance wise or even real time things like colder than forecasted temps, DPs, increased snow pack to support the statement strictly based on the fact that your neck of the woods hasn’t seen any winter weather or isn’t going to out of this.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
My update 2nd call, will update as needed, this one is looking bad it would be so nice if I was dropping things south and upticking things for snow, but it’s ice unfortunately View attachment 75749
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That map looks pretty spot on to what is realistic to me. Including the upstate


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Well I did say extreme northern upstate which probably includes you so idk what else to say.
iGRXY said:
Listen, I get it. You haven’t had any wintry weather all season. That holds no weight in this event. Your area may not get anything but plenty of people in Greenville, Spartanburg, and Cherokee counties at a minimum are in the crosshairs for a serious ice potential. Don’t make a blanket statement like that when there’s nothing on your side both model guidance wise or even real time things like colder than forecasted temps, DPs, increased snow pack to support the statement strictly based on the fact that your neck of the woods hasn’t seen any winter weather or isn’t going to out of this.
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