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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Webberweather53 said:
3km NAM is still spitting out a +10C ish warm nose at KGSO 12z tomorrow. I'm comparing it to other prominent ZR events in the Triad and I've still yet to find one w/ a stronger warm nose than that lol
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1.2” to 1.6” rain. 80% will run off and not freeze unlike last weekend when all of the light to moderate rain froze
 
Most of ice east of raleigh is the Friday Deal on RGEM'

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NCSNOW said:
Most of ice east of raleigh is the Friday Deal on RGEM'

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There is no icing east of Raleigh on Friday, it ends Thursday afternoon. It does try to bring some zr in the triad Friday and even flips to sn in NE NC but thar is early Sat morning.
 
All of the models look pretty bad for ice around here. RAH must not think that are correct if they only have Wake under an advisory.
 
Woke up and it seems as if some of the models backed up on the ice for my area. Thank goodness. To all the I40, triad, and raleigh folks stay safe! Looks like a crippling ice storm.
 
Brick Tamland said:
All of the models look pretty bad for ice around here. RAH must not think that are correct if they only have Wake under an advisory.
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They tend to follow the NAM. The 12k does show winter storm criteria ice for northern Wake; but the 3k now shows something that's close to their current forecast.
 
Brick Tamland said:
All of the models look pretty bad for ice around here. RAH must not think that are correct if they only have Wake under an advisory.
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Not really, all those dooms day ice maps aren't accurate and RAH not gonna issue a warning based off of those. What has been accurate and what they are probably using is the NWS blend of models, that shows .19 for RDU which is below warning criteria.
 
26.7 this morning. I'm a little surprised that I was able to get this low with the saturated ground. I also tend to run a little warmer than surrounding areas on clear nights.
 
Jessy89 said:
29 this morning in Liberty. I do not think freezing rain will be a big deal here. I’m thinking less then 0.10 if not a 33 degree rain. Which to me looks to be the most likely outcome


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You didn't think liberty was gonna get any snow last time either, and went to NC.

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