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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Every time the HRRR has initialized the Dewpoint’s have been 3-4 degrees lower than what the HRRR predicted the previous hour .. someone check it I promise it checks out
 
Ollie Williams said:
It did pretty poorly with the last event. It was too far south, and too bearish with the totals further north.
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That doesn't look too bad to me at least in the hardest hit zones, there's definitely a cold bias there w/ too much ZR too far southeast and nowhere near enough in the mountains, but the amounts in the hardest hit parts of the NW piedmont aren't outlandish, we had widespread ZR accums of 0.35-0.4" in the northern piedmont of NC and that's basically what it spit out here.

Also, the highest ZR accums were actually further north in the last storm in southern VA and not in NC. Lots of 0.5"+ ZR amounts near Appomattox, VA

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Something I should definitely mention wrt FRAM (looking at the paper once again), the FRAM output is ZR accumulation on a flat, horizontal surface, to convert to radial ice accrual which is what we measure on trees & accrues on power lines, you have to take the FRAM output amounts from the models and multiply them by 0.4.
 
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