Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

My update 2nd call, will update as needed, this one is looking bad ?? it would be so nice if I was dropping things south and upticking things for snow, but it’s ice unfortunately View attachment 75749

That's a slick looking map btw.

 

[iGRXY]

03z RAP. I think this is pretty realisticView attachment 75750

RAP is not good with CAD. That was stated earlier

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

RAP is not good with CAD. That was stated earlier

We shall see. I just think it's the most accurate with which areas will see the most ice.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Geez brad pushed it south a bit more

 

[iGRXY]

Geez brad pushed it south a bit more

You can tell he’s wanting to push those 0.25” ice totals down to the 85 corridor but is holding off for right now.

 

[Tarheel1]

My update 2nd call, will update as needed, this one is looking bad ?? it would be so nice if I was dropping things south and upticking things for snow, but it’s ice unfortunately View attachment 75749

Didn’t you just hear? No ice in the upstate!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Didn’t you just hear? No ice in the upstate!

Eh some light amounts are possible around there, just not around jimmy, he makes his own urban heat island on the failboat

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

03z RAP has Raleigh at a 29 Dewpoint by midnight ... only gets to 26 at its lowest point ... the current Dewpoint is 25 .. I’ve seen this sad song before

 

[Tarheel1]

The double waves back to back look on the NAMs is a little concerning! I mean the 2nd wave looks less icy, but the first wave already does the dirty work, it’s looking really bad for the heart of CAD region!

 

[FortMillSCWx]

He's honking. He's always quoting "trends". Synoptics. Every post he's done today demonstrates trends,

Geez brad pushed it south a bit more

 

[mrdaddyman]

This is not my idea of wintertime fun.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The HREF is way overdone here, cut these 25%-50%, your answer, and it’s still bad

 

[iGRXY]

03z RAP has Raleigh at a 29 Dewpoint by midnight ... only gets to 26 at its lowest point ... the current Dewpoint is 25 .. I’ve seen this sad song before

According to the RAP I’m supposed to be sitting somewhere around 33/25 right now at it’s initialization. I’m currently 29/18. It’s useless tryna to sniff out low level cold air.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

03z HRRR is the modernweenie run yet for DFW

Widespread 5-7" north of I-20 and east of I-35W.

EDIT: In fact, Plano's the bullseye for all of NE Texas and Texarkana.

 

[tucker]

Earlier AFD from MRX this evening. I'm at 17 degrees right now with a forecasted low of 20 ? Grasping because I desperately want to try out our new sled!

"I think the biggest factor to keep an
eye on will be surface temperatures tonight (Tuesday night) and
daytime highs on Wednesday. Sometimes the models don`t handle how
long a dense/cold air mass can stick around in the eastern TN
valley, and sometimes we are slower to warm up than models
previously indicated. 12z Models have come in slightly colder for
daytime highs on Wednesday indicating that they may be picking up on
this colder air sticking around longer than previously indicated. If
daytime daytime highs on Wednesday get stuck in the 30`s or
near/below 40 then we`ll not have as far to drop overnight to hit
that freezing mark... I may very well be wrong on this, but I think
keeping an eye on how temperatures are trending on daytime Wednesday
will be the first indicator for the predominant precipitation type
on Thursday morning in the Valley."

they are giving me hope just for it to be 37 and rainy...

All jokes aside.. if I remember correctly we had a similar event in 2014(?) system came through right after a cold blast and got a nice surprise.

 

[smast16]

Well we know how freezing rain is a self limiting process thank god for that or this would have been a real ---- show ... oh wait. .... a stiff NE wind to keep the air cold and dry .... *gulps*

View attachment 75746

Oh great let's add a 30 mph wind to my icicles.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Nuisance event at best for northern parts of the upstate north of 85. Won’t amount to much imo

 

[accu35]

Leaving @ 2 am headed for North MS.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

The HREF is way overdone here, cut these 25%-50%, your answer, and it’s still bad View attachment 75752

Shifting south into the midlands of SC!