Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[Dewpoint Dan]

HRRR still seems to crush NE Texas, SW Arkansas and NW Louisiana with snow.

So very close, lol (well, I guess that's the life story of DFW, haha!)

So you think Texarkana is in a good spot ?

 

[DadOfJax]

12z hrrr

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

we gonna miss this one again in the 20/59 corridor! GEEZ!!

 

[Flotown]

Surprised there is not more talk from tv mets etc. bout tomorrow and thursday for north bama ,ms and tn.reckon we will get some kind of advisory today??

 

[Webberweather53]

My first call map for this ice storm. Expect the highest totals in the Blue Ridge Escarpment from Blowing Rock & pts north, probably close to a 0.25" in the Triad.

 

[Montanasnow30]

12z hrrr

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

@Storm5 do you think Tuscaloosa and Birmingham may need to watch this next system?

 

[Ultimaparadox]

12z hrrr

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That snow line is much further south... hoping to avoid more ICE. Down one tree already

 

[lexxnchloe]

@Storm5 do you think Tuscaloosa and Birmingham may need to watch this next system?

Could be big there

 

[EMTime]

Here's something that will blow your mind. We are having LAKE EFFECT snow in northeast ms. It's coming off the ten tom waterway and it's lakes. Unheard of.

 

[FallsLake]

12z NAM is slightly colder bring a little more ice into the Triangle.
QPF (temps at or only slightly below freezing so this is overdone as represented):

 

[WSNC]

 

[WSNC]

925 temps much colder this run of 12z nam. Looks like a period of sleet in triad.

 

[WSNC]

 

[WSNC]

 

[PARSONBROWN]

Gut....this system performs for north and central Alabama. We haven’t had cold air like this in before a system in a long time. Models hopefully miss that

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

RGEM coming in a little more sleety

 

[Webberweather53]

925 temps much colder this run of 12z nam. Looks like a period of sleet in triad.

Still looks like freezing rain in the Triad to me, that warm nose is absolutely ridiculous and the 925mb level is almost at the sfc over the Triad due to elevation. The near sfc cold layer doesn't look deep or strong enough to offset that absurd near +10°C warm nose at 850mb & I doubt there would be refreezing. If the warm nose was <5°C then you might have a point here, but that's way too strong

 

[JLL1973]

Nam crushes the midsouth area

 

[GaWx]

I guess the models trended even drier than they were yesterday.

FWD is now only calling for 1 inch of less of snow, lol.

The 6Z GFS and Euro suites are a little wetter with 0.25 (Euro) and 0.35” GFS qpf. And even though the 0.35” GFS has a good bit of sleet mixed in, even it has 2-3” accum, which would be another major event being that sleet would be in the mix, The Euro is closer to pure snow and is ~2”. So based on this, I think 1” is conservatively low and a 2-3” combo of sleet and snow is my initial guess. Regardless of the outcome, what a mess and what a week+!

 

[FallsLake]

RGEM coming in a little more sleety

For some:
QPF: (but must note it has much colder temp, lots of upper 20s)

 

[packfan98]

Still looks like freezing rain in the Triad to me, that warm nose is absolutely ridiculous and the 925mb level is almost at the sfc over the Triad due to elevation. The near sfc cold layer doesn't look deep or strong enough to offset that absurd near +10°C warm nose at 850mb & I doubt there would be refreezing. If the warm nose was <5°C then you might have a point here, but that's way too strong

View attachment 75496

I was thinking the same thing. This is a much stouter warm nose than last weekend. My suspicion (and hope) is that the heavy precip will scour out the wedge quickly and there will be less impact in the Triad than last weekend. It's close those, so every trend is crucial.