Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[MichaelJ]

Yeah I don't buy the RGEM for Temps and think the NAM does a much better job with them. At this point I am not even looking at the globals except for some ensemble runs. If the NAM verifies, it could save us in the Triad if the precip is of a heavier nature added to 31-32 degree temps and moderate precip causing less ice accrual on power lines and roads. This would lead to say 100,000 without power instead of 1,000,000 if it trends colder

 

[BIG FROSTY]

NWS in Blacksburg seems to have backed off, at least with the wording compared to last nights forecast for Wednesday night/Thursday. Wording not nearly as threating!
They did have sleet and snow to start in the forecast now Rain with a chance of freezing rain, I guess expecting temps to be a little warmer low 30s now forecasted where they was saying a low of 30. Big difference in 30 vs 32 when it comes to freezing rain.

 

[ajr]

Ugh — we already have flood warnings in my area.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Going to be pretty dang cold tonight, in the teens, and not much climbing tomorrow. Another ingredient for a significant ice storm.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah I don't buy the RGEM for Temps and think the NAM does a much better job with them. At this point I am not even looking at the globals except for some ensemble runs. If the NAM verifies, it could save us in the Triad if the precip is of a heavier nature added to 31-32 degree temps and moderate precip causing less ice accrual on power lines and roads. This would lead to say 100,000 without power instead of 1,000,000 if it trends colder

For now, 0.1-0.2" seems like a good conservative first-guess in Winston, out of respect for the potentially high precip rates that could warm many up to freezing or just below it and slow ice accrual. Northern Guilford & pts north to the VA border look primed to see at least 0.2" again...

 

[Webberweather53]

Going to be pretty dang cold tonight, in the teens, and not much climbing tomorrow. Another ingredient for a significant ice storm.

The northern Blue ridge escarpment is screwed.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

As usual, the RGEM is too cold this morning over areas w/ snow cover in Texas & Oklahoma. If you're entrusting this model to try & forecast sfc temps over NC tomorrow night & Thursday morning, good luck to you...

View attachment 75443


RGEM forecast vs 12z obs:

KOKC (Will Rogers World Airport): 6z RGEM: -15°F vs 12z obs: -6°F; RGEM bias: -9°F

KMFE (McAllen Miller Int'l Airport): 6z RGEM: 19°F vs 12z Obs: 27°F; RGEM bias: -8°F

KDFW (Dallas-Ft Worth Int'l Airport): 6z RGEM: -6°F vs 12z Obs: 1°F; RGEM bias: -7°F

KIAH (Bush Intercontinental/Houston Airport): 6z RGEM: 7°F vs 12z obs: 13°F; RGEM bias: -6°F

KAUS (Austin-Bergstrom Int'l Airport): 6z RGEM: 2°F vs 12z obs: 8°F; RGEM bias: -6°F

KSPS (Wichita Falls Regional Airport): 6z RGEM: -8°F vs 12z obs: -3°F; RGEM bias: -5°F

KACT (Waco Regional Airport): 6z RGEM: -3°F vs 12z obs: 2°F; RGEM bias: -5°F

KTXK (Texarkana Regional Airport): 6z RGEM: -4°F vs 12z obs: 1°F; RGEM bias: -5°F

Yup, It's seems to always be a degree or two off!

 

[Tarheelwx]

RGEM looks to be busting too warm in CAD areas this morning. 06z run has GSO getting down to 26 on Thursday morning. I think maybe yesterday this time, the RGEM showed GSO bottoming out around 28-29 on Thursday morning. Now, the NAM has GSO bottoming out at 30 and the GFS gets down just below 30. So while the RGEM may be a bit overzealous with the wedge and it's impact, the other models have trended to where it was a day or two ago. So, there is some merit there. At this stage, all I'm looking for is trends in surface temps, wet bulbs, hp strength, hp location, temp trends in NoVa/PA, and temp trends where the hp is centered today Having said all that.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

The 6Z EURO is a long duration event for the Triad (except it warms above freezing for a time during the day Thursday): Freezing rain--rain--freezing rain.

 

[Webberweather53]

RGEM looks to be busting too warm in CAD areas this morning. 06z run has GSO getting down to 26 on Thursday morning. I think maybe yesterday this time, the RGEM showed GSO bottoming out around 28-29 on Thursday morning. Now, the NAM has GSO bottoming out at 30 and the GFS gets down just below 30. So while the RGEM may be a bit overzealous with the wedge and it's impact, the other models have trended to where it was a day or two ago. So, there is some merit there. At this stage, all I'm looking for is trends in surface temps, wet bulbs, hp strength, hp location, temp trends in NoVa/PA, and temp trends where the hp is centered today Having said all that.

RGEM had GSO bottoming out at 27F yesterday's 6z run, it's showing 26F now. Basically no change overall and no cold trend. Again, it's likely gonna be too cold, usually is for CAD. Other models often trend towards its solution but that doesn't necessarily make it right because it busts too low a majority of the time.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Round one:

 

[Snowman63]

As usual, the RGEM is too cold this morning over areas w/ snow cover in Texas & Oklahoma. If you're entrusting this model to try & forecast sfc temps over NC tomorrow night & Thursday morning, good luck to you...

View attachment 75443


RGEM forecast vs 12z obs:

KOKC (Will Rogers World Airport): 6z RGEM: -15°F vs 12z obs: -6°F; RGEM bias: -9°F

KMFE (McAllen Miller Int'l Airport): 6z RGEM: 19°F vs 12z Obs: 27°F; RGEM bias: -8°F

KDFW (Dallas-Ft Worth Int'l Airport): 6z RGEM: -6°F vs 12z Obs: 1°F; RGEM bias: -7°F

KIAH (Bush Intercontinental/Houston Airport): 6z RGEM: 7°F vs 12z obs: 13°F; RGEM bias: -6°F

KAUS (Austin-Bergstrom Int'l Airport): 6z RGEM: 2°F vs 12z obs: 8°F; RGEM bias: -6°F

KSPS (Wichita Falls Regional Airport): 6z RGEM: -8°F vs 12z obs: -3°F; RGEM bias: -5°F

KACT (Waco Regional Airport): 6z RGEM: -3°F vs 12z obs: 2°F; RGEM bias: -5°F

KTXK (Texarkana Regional Airport): 6z RGEM: -4°F vs 12z obs: 1°F; RGEM bias: -5°F

It's got Memphis at 2° and we actually made it to 1°.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Round two:

 

[EMTime]

My local met here said he doesn't think the models are handling the shallow cold air that's already in place very well, and that he feels we will get sleet or freezing rain again for NE Ms and nw Alabama.

 

[Webberweather53]

It's got Memphis at 2° and we actually made it to 1°.

Again, a few locations it's close to or warmer than forecast, but when you actually compare the model temps to observed, they are too cold at a majority of locations region-wide.

 

[packfan98]

Round two:

View attachment 75463

Yuck! Do you have ice totals?

 

[Tarheelwx]

Poimen - do you have a storm total for zr for the triad from the 06 Euro?
TW

 

[Deleted member 1449]

As far as I can tell weathermodels.com does not include the ice accumulation parameter for the EC (at least the 6Z).

 

[Webberweather53]

WPC 50th percentile ice accumulation forecast.

 

[chapelhillwx]

As usual, the RGEM is too cold this morning over areas w/ snow cover in Texas & Oklahoma. If you're entrusting this model to try & forecast sfc temps over NC tomorrow night & Thursday morning, good luck to you...

You are right but I am pretty amazed at how close it is in Arkansas relative to the RGEM forecast. Happened to grab this screenshot for posterity this morning.