D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
So the GFS just went bonkers for all of central NC. It has my backyard with a temp of 28 Thursday afternoon. There's your sign.
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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
DAMN the GFS is colder, uh oh
NCSNOW
Member
GFS Comes south, lines up with Canadian suite now:
Starting to look like this could be a big issue even here, and there’s no way we sleet from this one. That warm nose is FIERY.
You can even see that same anomaly on the GFS near Charlotte, wow that’s cool 
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
and the GFS v16 disagrees ...
This is a really bad, and I mean really bad trend 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
BelmontWX79
Member
I l
I live in that little notch about a mile south of 85. I usually run about a degree or two lower than the airport during CAD so this will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Steven_1974
Member
Yeah, really hope that doesn't verify. We don't need a crippling ice storm.
WSNC
Member
I know gfs doesn't do well with warm nose, but still holding out hope we can trend this to more sleet on front end.
IDK how much it matters but todays temps didn't get up to the forecasted temps. Running 43 I think forecast was 47.
Edit: Forecast was 49
Edit: Forecast was 49
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NCHighCountryWX
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Dross: Btw the new GFS v16 coming out in a few weeks should handle cold air damming a little better, over all not much better that current version but removes warm bias in 2m temps past 24 hours.
Windergawx
Member
Does anyone see the wedge getting down into the favorite car areas like gainesville ?
Cary_Snow95
Member
I don’t see the wedge getting anywhere past the nc/sc border at most
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That awkward moment when a SW sfc wind gives you cold advection in the Carolinas
lol
lol
Avalanche
Member
All that snowpack in Mexico being advected north.
I really wonder if snowpack up north starts reflecting with colder solutions or already is
HRRR now showing 4-6" in Dallas' northern suburbs.
I think it’s a key player but I also think if it is the case than slowly this is only going to continue to look worse
JLL1973
Member
Second winter storm warning this week for me. Just don’t see that around here very often
Brent
Member
Yeah I find it hard to believe it snows til morning and only snows a couple inches especially with snow still on the ground and temps around 20
SimeonNC
Member
I'm surprised GSP placed Mecklenburg county under a watch.
The question will be how quickly precipitation can fill in over DFW late tonight/early tomorrow before it move eastward. The other models aren't as quick to do so, and everything blows up just to the east.
Huge bust potential either way with the instablity, lift and moisture advertised.
Brent
Member
Yeah a big range possible for sure
Super tiny flakes just started here
I feel better being north of DFW for once lol
Northern parts of the counties could be closer to big issues vs the southern
As Webb has said, 850s are not supportive of much, if any sleet. I've found that for all ATL sig. sleet with wedging that 850s were usually ~+1 to +3. For ZR, +3 to +8 has been the most prime when there's a good wedge.
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I just can't stop thinking about the GFS holding GSO at 29 much of the day Thursday. That's a warning shot if there ever was one.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Is 1-3 inches of snow before switching a good bet here in Roanoke, VA? Currently thinking somewhere between Nam and gfs. Nam IMO is too aggressive with warm nose up here but gfs not aggressive enough.
Snownut
Member
Winter storm watch here in Northern upstate, And just what we don't need or Want Ice!
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Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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What’s the icon show?
Avalanche
Member
Unless March has something historic for us, Im pulling for this one.
I hear you, lol.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Watch out TX and OK
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I'm pretty good but I ain't that good.
CAA is happening. Temps are falling like a rock!
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18Z GFS/12Z Euro suite consensus averages ~0.25" of qpf. I think the NWS' raise from 1" to 1-3" was a good move. Assuming 0.25" qpf, it would give ~1" if it is pure sleet and 2.5" if it is pure snow.
Getting chilly here as the sun sets 29° with a forecast low of 23° will be watching temps/dews in the morning which will probably tell the tale last few ice events/nuisance haven't had the low level cold like this one will so it has my attention.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Calm before the storm here on the eastern slopes. Temps crashing, currently 21.
