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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

18z hrrr to Huntsville I’ll go
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What a beautiful sight right there. Days gone by when that would be sure fire winter threat for the Charlotte area. If only that polar boundary got past the mountains. Enjoy.
 
How cold does it have to be to get snow here instead of ice?
 
Could colder mean less freezing rain and more sleet or even snow?
I personally don’t think there is any chance for snow south of VA from looking at these soundings. The real hope is to get a less intense warm nose than the furnace that is showing right now. That way hopefully you take advantage of what looks to be fairly cold 925s and you get sleet... however I don’t have much confidence in that right now. To me, the big red flag is how the NAM continues to trend a little further south with the low. If that continues, we may see lighter precipitation rates, which mean less latent heating, better cooled rain drops hitting the surface, less runoff and more optimal condition for ice to accrue.
 
How cold does it have to be to get snow here instead of ice?

Look at the bright side. At least you're going to get ice instead of plain rain.

Meanwhile, here's the latest DFW NWS forecast, which has upped tomorrow's snow/sleet accum. from 1" to 1-3" with ice under 1/10":


TXZ119-170015-
DALLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF DALLAS
113 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON

CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW WITH
POSSIBLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 17. EAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY

CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW, SLEET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
 
Yeah, north of the Triad and the Triangle into the escarpment (40 north folks) look like they have a shot of a winter storm here. For MBY and CLT I don't believe in freezing rain in the 30s. It would have to tick several degrees colder for me to think about anything serious IMO. Just another beautiful cold rain. The coldest possible!
 
I wonder if RAH will add Davidson, Randolph, Chatham, Wake to the WSW. Surely I would think Davidson and Randolph. The northern half or third of those counties will likely experience warning criteria ice.
 
Interesting to see higher totals on our side of town but less on the west side...

Downstream advection of slightly warmer air from the Charlotte metro area is probably playing into that and why areas west and southwest of town are a degree or two warmer than they otherwise would be. Little details like this can actually matter a lot and have been discussed in various pieces of scientific literature.
 
Downstream advection of slightly warmer air from the Charlotte metro area is probably playing into that and why areas west and southwest of town are a degree or two warmer than they otherwise would be. Little details like this can actually matter a lot and have been discussed in various pieces of scientific literature.
Gotta love UHI
 
Here's the final one thru 60 hr. About a third an inch of ice on the National Blend of Models FRAM in GSO. Some glazing now extends down into the upstate of SC.

View attachment 75609
I think watches could soon be added one county south and east of the current ones based on this map. Pockets of .25 are showing up further south. They might even throw Wake in there since the NW edge is borderline watch/warning criteria.
 
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Here's the final one thru 60 hr. About a third an inch of ice on the National Blend of Models FRAM in GSO. Some glazing now extends down into the upstate of SC.

View attachment 75609

Looks like some nasty trends here. I am right on the line here on the Johnston/Wake border. The NBM must still be playing catch-up for my area because it is showing almost nothing here. Just about every model is showing freezing rain for me now. The RGEM and GGEM are even showing over .5" accrual here, but I realize that they are cold biased.

In the mean time, 3K NAM continues to march SE.

3KNAM_TotalFreezingRainFRAM_NC_2021-02-16_18Z_FHr48_PW.gif
 
I think watches could soon be added one county south and east of the current ones based on this map. Pockets of .25 are showing up further south. They might even throw Wake in their since the NW edge is borderline watch/warning criteria.

Yeah, for continuity w/ other neighboring offices and given the trends we've seen on the models today, I'd imagine that winter storm watches are probably coming for Franklin, Wake, Chatham, Randolph, & Davidson county.
 
Yeah, for continuity w/ other neighboring offices and given the trends we've seen on the models today, I'd imagine that winter storm watches are probably coming for Franklin, Wake, Chatham, Randolph, & Davidson county.

I think NWS RAH's afternoon package comes out around 4pm or so, we'll likely find out in a little bit if they think what they're seeing warrants winter storm watches in those counties. If I was working the forecast desk, I'd definitely say yes.
 
NAM still has plenty of elevated instability, which may mean thunder with freezing rain but also mean convection dragging warmer air down, you can actually see pockets of warmer sfc temps on the NAM under these but they instantly lower back with lighter precip 423A4C2F-35FA-45AE-A80F-91485E87A831.pngAD2DD562-D04C-4147-8BA4-29AB86BC4E9D.png
 
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