Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NoCould colder mean less freezing rain and more sleet or even snow?
How the hell are we stuck in the rain and freezing rain pattern for a whole week?For areas of the nw Piedmont maybe. Central Nc like wake is pretty much rain or zr
18z hrrr to Huntsville I’ll go![]()
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Snow isn't happening. 850's are screaming. Even with a more southern solution the only hope is sleet.How cold does it have to be to get snow here instead of ice?
I personally don’t think there is any chance for snow south of VA from looking at these soundings. The real hope is to get a less intense warm nose than the furnace that is showing right now. That way hopefully you take advantage of what looks to be fairly cold 925s and you get sleet... however I don’t have much confidence in that right now. To me, the big red flag is how the NAM continues to trend a little further south with the low. If that continues, we may see lighter precipitation rates, which mean less latent heating, better cooled rain drops hitting the surface, less runoff and more optimal condition for ice to accrue.Could colder mean less freezing rain and more sleet or even snow?
A lot. The mid level flow is originating from near Cancun that isn't great for snow here.How cold does it have to be to get snow here instead of ice?
Lighter precip rates where ZR is occurring...makes it easier for ice to accrueOh yeah this is bad, system is more suppressed View attachment 75607View attachment 75608
How cold does it have to be to get snow here instead of ice?
The trend....Here's the final one thru 60 hr. About a third an inch of ice on the National Blend of Models FRAM in GSO. Some glazing now extends down into the upstate of SC.
View attachment 75609
That’s ugly View attachment 75621
Interesting to see higher totals on our side of town but less on the west side...
If this HRRR has legs in MS this is hours upon hours here of precip.hrrr is awesome View attachment 75610
Gotta love UHIDownstream advection of slightly warmer air from the Charlotte metro area is probably playing into that and why areas west and southwest of town are a degree or two warmer than they otherwise would be. Little details like this can actually matter a lot and have been discussed in various pieces of scientific literature.
I think watches could soon be added one county south and east of the current ones based on this map. Pockets of .25 are showing up further south. They might even throw Wake in there since the NW edge is borderline watch/warning criteria.Here's the final one thru 60 hr. About a third an inch of ice on the National Blend of Models FRAM in GSO. Some glazing now extends down into the upstate of SC.
View attachment 75609
Here's the final one thru 60 hr. About a third an inch of ice on the National Blend of Models FRAM in GSO. Some glazing now extends down into the upstate of SC.
View attachment 75609
Dang. Didn't see this before I posted. Agreed. ?I wonder if RAH will add Davidson, Randolph, Chatham, Wake to the WSW. Surely I would think Davidson and Randolph. The northern half or third of those counties will likely experience warning criteria ice.
I think watches could soon be added one county south and east of the current ones based on this map. Pockets of .25 are showing up further south. They might even throw Wake in their since the NW edge is borderline watch/warning criteria.
Yeah, for continuity w/ other neighboring offices and given the trends we've seen on the models today, I'd imagine that winter storm watches are probably coming for Franklin, Wake, Chatham, Randolph, & Davidson county.