Webberweather53
Meteorologist
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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Bye bye severe storms
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
How the hell are we stuck in the rain and freezing rain pattern for a whole week?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the final one thru 60 hr. About a third an inch of ice on the National Blend of Models FRAM in GSO. Some glazing now extends down into the upstate of SC.
SnowNiner
Member
18z hrrr to Huntsville I’ll go
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What a beautiful sight right there. Days gone by when that would be sure fire winter threat for the Charlotte area. If only that polar boundary got past the mountains. Enjoy.
Stormlover
Member
hrrr is awesome 
iGRXY
Member
This is so close in the upstate and around CLT it is crazy. talking 32-33 degrees on the NAM now.
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like the 18z Nam has the PV piece a little stronger and it locks in the HP a little better. It was a tick stronger too.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
How cold does it have to be to get snow here instead of ice?
iGRXY
Member
Snow isn't happening. 850's are screaming. Even with a more southern solution the only hope is sleet.
I personally don’t think there is any chance for snow south of VA from looking at these soundings. The real hope is to get a less intense warm nose than the furnace that is showing right now. That way hopefully you take advantage of what looks to be fairly cold 925s and you get sleet... however I don’t have much confidence in that right now. To me, the big red flag is how the NAM continues to trend a little further south with the low. If that continues, we may see lighter precipitation rates, which mean less latent heating, better cooled rain drops hitting the surface, less runoff and more optimal condition for ice to accrue.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Solid 4-8" for you Buford.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Both the 3k and 12k NAM much much colder this way. 25-27 degrees during bulk of precip. Ain’t looking good folks.
A lot. The mid level flow is originating from near Cancun that isn't great for snow here.
Lighter precip rates where ZR is occurring...makes it easier for ice to accrue
Look at the bright side. At least you're going to get ice instead of plain rain.
Meanwhile, here's the latest DFW NWS forecast, which has upped tomorrow's snow/sleet accum. from 1" to 1-3" with ice under 1/10":
TXZ119-170015-
DALLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF DALLAS
113 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2021
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON
CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW WITH
POSSIBLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 17. EAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW, SLEET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
What is this ? It’s like some sort of CAA behind the system ? It keeps showing up on models 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
3k NAM has Boone at 25 on Thursday morning at 8 AM. Last run it was 30. Buckle up!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Trends on NWP today certainly seem to generally suggest folks that were spared by the last ice storm between the Triad & Triangle areas in places like Burlington, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, & north Durham may not be so lucky this time around
That’s ugly 
Stormlover
Member
Thundersnow watch in far north Alabama tomorrow night, lol 
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, north of the Triad and the Triangle into the escarpment (40 north folks) look like they have a shot of a winter storm here. For MBY and CLT I don't believe in freezing rain in the 30s. It would have to tick several degrees colder for me to think about anything serious IMO. Just another beautiful cold rain. The coldest possible!
Interesting to see higher totals on our side of town but less on the west side...
3km is colder aswell vs last run, a little bit warmer then the 12k, by 1 degree in many locations 
StormStalker
Member
HUN lastest discussion was not very optimistic about any wintry weather with this system.
Trends today = fookin ugly
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Downstream advection of slightly warmer air from the Charlotte metro area is probably playing into that and why areas west and southwest of town are a degree or two warmer than they otherwise would be. Little details like this can actually matter a lot and have been discussed in various pieces of scientific literature.
NWMSGuy
Member
If this HRRR has legs in MS this is hours upon hours here of precip.
Gotta love UHI
I think watches could soon be added one county south and east of the current ones based on this map. Pockets of .25 are showing up further south. They might even throw Wake in there since the NW edge is borderline watch/warning criteria.
Last edited:
Looks like some nasty trends here. I am right on the line here on the Johnston/Wake border. The NBM must still be playing catch-up for my area because it is showing almost nothing here. Just about every model is showing freezing rain for me now. The RGEM and GGEM are even showing over .5" accrual here, but I realize that they are cold biased.
In the mean time, 3K NAM continues to march SE.
Dang. Didn't see this before I posted. Agreed. ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, for continuity w/ other neighboring offices and given the trends we've seen on the models today, I'd imagine that winter storm watches are probably coming for Franklin, Wake, Chatham, Randolph, & Davidson county.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think NWS RAH's afternoon package comes out around 4pm or so, we'll likely find out in a little bit if they think what they're seeing warrants winter storm watches in those counties. If I was working the forecast desk, I'd definitely say yes.
NAM still has plenty of elevated instability, which may mean thunder with freezing rain but also mean convection dragging warmer air down, you can actually see pockets of warmer sfc temps on the NAM under these but they instantly lower back with lighter precip 
