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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

ICON not looking so cold biased anymore eh? This thing is lookin scary right now and we still have time for these models to really catch hold of the real CAD signal .. the last storm trended about 3-4 degrees lower the day of ... I’m worried now .. happy birthday to me I guess
 
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WSNC said:
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If trends continue we'll be talking about more sleet at go time.
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Need to cut back the intensity of warm nose by at least 5-6°C to be talking about sleet at this time frame in the Triad. When you have a warm nose of 10°C+ at 850mb no less, you're basically guaranteed ZR no matter what the low-level cold is like because the hydrometeors simply don't have enough time to cool off before reaching the sfc. Definitely has to be one of the strongest warm noses I've seen for a CAD setup like this.

1613508058412.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Need to cut back the intensity of warm nose by at least 5-6°C to be talking about sleet at this time frame in the Triad. Definitely has to be one of the strongest warm noses I've seen for a CAD setup like this.

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Reminds me of a sounding you’d see with a southern plains ice storm
 
The RGEM and Canadian are cold biased but models have been trending closer and closer to those solutions with each run and we have another 3-4 to go before we get into nowcasting and seeing trends so there's still room for things to drop another couple degrees.
 
I guess I'm going to try to purchase a generator tonight if any are left in stock. I almost purchased one last week but decided against it at the last minute. I hate to part with the money (I'm so tight I squeak when I walk) if I only need it for a few hours.

We were without power for about 12 hours and it wasn't bad. But I have a church member who was without it for 48 hours.
 
Poimen said:
I guess I'm going to try to purchase a generator tonight if any are left in stock. I almost purchased one last week but decided against it at the last minute. I hate to part with the money (I'm so tight I squeak when I walk) if I only need it for a few hours.
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Get it and return it if you don’t have to use it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Trends on NWP today certainly seem to generally suggest folks that were spared by the last ice storm between the Triad & Triangle areas in places like Burlington, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, & north Durham may not be so lucky this time around
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....or lucky depending on how you look at it
 
GaWx said:
Look at the bright side. At least you're going to get ice instead of plain rain.

Meanwhile, here's the latest DFW NWS forecast, which has upped tomorrow's snow/sleet accum. from 1" to 1-3" with ice under 1/10":


TXZ119-170015-
DALLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF DALLAS
113 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON
CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW WITH
POSSIBLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 17. EAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW, SLEET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
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That’s way down from what they were thinking a day or two ago! I hope ? gets his snow somehow
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think NWS RAH's afternoon package comes out around 4pm or so, we'll likely find out in a little bit if they think what they're seeing warrants winter storm watches in those counties. If I was working the forecast desk, I'd definitely say yes.
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Looks like they will probably go with advisories for those areas just judging by the AFD

This will create the possibility of freezing
rain for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal
Plain, with rain elsewhere. Significant icing to one-quarter of an
inch is possible mainly north of I-85, with lesser amounts expected
for the lower areas of the northern Piedmont. All areas should have
rain as the main precipitation type by Thursday evening as
temperatures increase to above freezing. A Winter Storm Watch
remains in effect and a Winter Weather Advisory will likely be
needed for areas elsewhere that icing is forecast.
 
Poimen said:
I guess I'm going to try to purchase a generator tonight if any are left in stock. I almost purchased one last week but decided against it at the last minute. I hate to part with the money (I'm so tight I squeak when I walk) if I only need it for a few hours.

We were without power for about 12 hours and it wasn't bad. But I have a church member who was without it for 48 hours.
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Best $500 I've ever spent. Picked one up in December 2002 with a newborn in house. Power was out for a week. Never had any issues with it to this day. Great to have when you need it and better piece of mind when you think you might.
 
accu35 said:
sn10_acc.conus.png
Didn't know if anyone post the UK
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Damn, Roxboro crushed!
 
Tarheel1 said:
That’s way down from what they were thinking a day or two ago! I hope ? gets his snow somehow
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Yeah, qpf was ~.50" then. Now it is about or slightly more than half that. By the way, this is progged to be the "warmer" storm with high teens to low 20s vs the other one snowing with mainly 10-16 F and as low as 6 F! That was the coldest big snow there on record.
'
 
Webberweather53 said:
Need to cut back the intensity of warm nose by at least 5-6°C to be talking about sleet at this time frame in the Triad. When you have a warm nose of 10°C+ at 850mb no less, you're basically guaranteed ZR no matter what the low-level cold is like because the hydrometeors simply don't have enough time to cool off before reaching the sfc. Definitely has to be one of the strongest warm noses I've seen for a CAD setup like this.

View attachment 75636
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The average of the other model temps at 850 is much less than NAM. Do you buy the NAM 850 temps being that warm? I know it has historically done well with warm noses and I never bet against it during a snowstorm if it shows one. That said, seems odd with slp track and it's own 925 temps. I would have thought mixed bag to freezing rain deal in CAD areas based on my 50 years living in this area.
 
StormStalker said:
HUN lastest discussion was not very optimistic about any wintry weather with this system.
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Cut from AFD


Some good news, while the initial precip will likely be a wintry mix
of snow/sleet/FZRA, it will quickly transition to all rain sometime
overnight as a result of strong WAA between 700mb and 850mb. Early
Thursday morning, nearly all of the forecast area should be at or
slightly above freezing. Latest forecast only calls for a few
hundredths of ice and less than an inch of snow mainly across NW
Alabama. The rest of the area will get only rain, which I know is a
welcome site for all across the Tennessee Valley. The morning model
guidance supports this warmer trend and hence these values are less
than the previous forecast package.

Rain will come to an end Thursday afternoon/evening from west to east
as the cold front swings through. The cold air should arrive after
the precip ends, but cannot rule out a few postfrontal flurries.
Another cold night Thursday with overnight lows in the lower 20s
 
SouthATLwx said:
It should be noted though, with the sun, the HRRR is several degrees too cold with surface temps.
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⁰
HSVweather said:
Cut from AFD


Some good news, while the initial precip will likely be a wintry mix
of snow/sleet/FZRA, it will quickly transition to all rain sometime
overnight as a result of strong WAA between 700mb and 850mb. Early
Thursday morning, nearly all of the forecast area should be at or
slightly above freezing. Latest forecast only calls for a few
hundredths of ice and less than an inch of snow mainly across NW
Alabama. The rest of the area will get only rain, which I know is a
welcome site for all across the Tennessee Valley. The morning model
guidance supports this warmer trend and hence these values are less
than the previous forecast package.

Rain will come to an end Thursday afternoon/evening from west to east
as the cold front swings through. The cold air should arrive after
the precip ends, but cannot rule out a few postfrontal flurries.
Another cold night Thursday with overnight lows in the lower 20s
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While I'm not a meteorologist and they know more than me....WHAT MODEL ARE THEY LOOKIN AT...no disrespect but what gives??
 
WSNC said:
The average of the other model temps at 850 is much less than NAM. Do you buy the NAM 850 temps being that warm? I know it has historically done well with warm noses and I never bet against it during a snowstorm if it shows one. That said, seems odd with slp track and it's own 925 temps. I would have thought mixed bag to freezing rain deal in CAD areas based on my 50 years living in this area.
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Even the GFS is showing 850s exceeding +10°C, and you can basically take it to the bank that its warm nose will verify weaker than forecast. For one thing, we don't have the cold air truly in place in advance of this storm like most big ice storms around here where it might be brutally cold prior to it, temps will not be dipping below freezing until the event is basically already underway and the 850s are starting out pretty warm.

The 3km NAM area-averaged sounding has a warm nose of +11°C in the Triad 12z Thursday w/ it warming even more later in the period, that's gonna have to bust by about at least 6-7°C too high in order to see predominantly more sleet in this setup. I doubt that happens

1613511000417.png
 
Poimen said:
I guess I'm going to try to purchase a generator tonight if any are left in stock. I almost purchased one last week but decided against it at the last minute. I hate to part with the money (I'm so tight I squeak when I walk) if I only need it for a few hours.

We were without power for about 12 hours and it wasn't bad. But I have a church member who was without it for 48 hours.
Click to expand...
Bought one day after crusher and it gets cheaper by the year/ still runs ( I hope, gotta test this afternoon)
 
Brad Travis posted this about 3

I have done a grid adjustment to the European model for Wednesday and this is the result. Here's the deal. There are two models showing 2-4 inches of snow over NW Alabama and three models saying it will be a cold rain with temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Regardless how it ends, I think it will begin as a wintry mix before this arctic air gets out of here. Be prepared for more driving issues over NW Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee beginning Wednesday afternoon.46983965-CF9B-43F8-A0E8-A0FF78AA5D5D.jpeg
 
We've seen this a lot this winter. I showing up on all the models for the whole Piedmont. I actually think the GFS has a decent location of where the ice will be
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, north of the Triad and the Triangle into the escarpment (40 north folks) look like they have a shot of a winter storm here. For MBY and CLT I don't believe in freezing rain in the 30s. It would have to tick several degrees colder for me to think about anything serious IMO. Just another beautiful cold rain. The coldest possible!
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Tell that to the triad last week. I believe they were in the 30s
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even the GFS is showing 850s exceeding +10°C, and you can basically take it to the bank that its warm nose will verify weaker than forecast. For one thing, we don't have the cold air truly in place in advance of this storm like most big ice storms around here where it might be brutally cold prior to it, temps will not be dipping below freezing until the event is basically already underway and the 850s are starting out pretty warm.

The 3km NAM area-averaged sounding has a warm nose of +11°C in the Triad 12z Thursday w/ it warming even more later in the period, that's gonna have to bust by about at least 6-7°C too high in order to see predominantly more sleet in this setup. I doubt that happens

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You think it will still be able to accrue despite such a warm nose?
 
Dunkman said:
You think it will still be able to accrue despite such a warm nose?
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If surface temps are sufficiently below freezing 28-30F, then it won't be a huge issue. The bigger warm nose closer to the sfc vs the Feb 12-13 storm means there's a stricter limit on precipitation rates and ZR accrual because there's a greater temperature differential across the top of the CAD dome. If we get heavy precip we are more likely to hit freezing this time than in that event.
 
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