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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

I am scheduled to drive up to Blowing Rock on Friday afternoon. Do those who live near the area think the roads will be impassable during the mid-day hours?
 
temps are dropping really fast dropped bout 10 degrees over past hour or so
 
alfoman said:
I am scheduled to drive up to Blowing Rock on Friday afternoon. Do those who live near the area think the roads will be impassable during the mid-day hours?
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I've been up to Boone, Blowing Rock chasing snow several times this winter. I usually go up 421 through Boone. It's always been well brined and plowed on the main roads. It looks like it will be near or below freezing most of the day Friday. I'm driving a 4wd 4Runner that is equipped for the slush though. You're going to have to deal with ice/slush in the parking lots. If your vehicle isn't equipped, I wouldn't go Friday. If it is; you'll be fine.
 
Regarding DFW, the 18Z GFS suite is a little colder at 850 and suggests the storm will be nearly pure snow in/near the city and north with no more than a short period of sleet mainly late. So, the high end of the 1-3" with ~2.5-3" looking more likely now imo. We'll see!

@Brent @SouthATLwx this is good news for purer snow event.
 
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SnowNiner said:
Me too. Well see what happens. Unless the models go a good bit colder, I bet Mecklenburg will go over to WWA in the morning.
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The model runs have been getting colder each run and more south as well. That's why Meck is under a watch. Sure, they could change to a WWA, but with the recent trends, I wouldn't count on it. The Euro is horrible with CAD events and it has trended more south with each run. Like I said before, that cold air to our north is no joke. And we have snowpack. Models never tend to do well when it comes to small but important details like that. This is one more south move away from putting a large portion of the state's largest cities in a sig zr event IMO. And honestly given the trends it would not surprise me to see some more southward trends as time progresses. I am glad they put us under a watch. Better safe than sorry.
 
Modeling trends have been friendly for a N AL front end thump, perhaps of snow. NWS HUN was perhaps too optimistic in parts of their forecast for Monday so it seems as though they might be playing it a bit more conservative. The HRRR seems to have nailed the impressive warmup Monday, so it may make some sense to pay some attention to what it is showing. The 18z showed snow for you and perhaps snow for me.
I think you will get a nice front end thump followed by a warmup to run while I see some token flakes and then rain. But what do I know?
 
ryan1234 said:
The model runs have been getting colder each run and more south as well. That's why Meck is under a watch. Sure, they could change to a WWA, but with the recent trends, I wouldn't count on it. The Euro is horrible with CAD events and it has trended more south with each run. Like I said before, that cold air to our north is no joke. And we have snowpack. Models never tend to do well when it comes to small but important details like that. This is one more south move away from putting a large portion of the state's largest cities in a sig zr event IMO. And honestly given the trends it would not surprise me to see some more southward trends as time progresses. I am glad they put us under a watch. Better safe than sorry.
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One thing I’ve noticed this evening is how these local tv stations futurecast models seem to be coming in on the cold side and putting the ZR well into the SC upstate.... they really don’t have the freezing line moving north much until the precip is almost cleared. I’ve noticed over the years that these in-house models often run a bit warm, so if they keep coming in on the colder side this might be a bigger issue further south
 
LukeBarrette said:
Is 1-3 inches of snow before switching a good bet here in Roanoke, VA? Currently thinking somewhere between Nam and gfs. Nam IMO is too aggressive with warm nose up here but gfs not aggressive enough.
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I will keep an eye on HRRR but think the NAM is better. 18Z 3k had 0 snow here. I will say the warm nose dialed back for the first several hours of that run so maybe the trend is our friend ?
 
Chazwin said:
One thing I’ve noticed this evening is how these local tv stations futurecast models seem to be coming in on the cold side and putting the ZR well into the SC upstate.... they really don’t have the freezing line moving north much until the precip is almost cleared. I’ve noticed over the years that these in-house models often run a bit warm, so if they keep coming in on the colder side this might be a bigger issue further south
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I haven't had a chance to look at any of the local station's forecast models but if that's the case then that is not good news. CLT and the Triangle sit in an odd spot when it comes to CAD. We have had some of our most sig wx events due to CAD. Yes, the Triad tends to do better but I feel like models underestimate the amount of cold air available- thus putting our area's in a greater unknown. Will this be one of those situations? Maybe. One thing I can say is that models have been horrible with CAD events this winter and while we've had nothing sig thus far, I just have an eerie feeling about this one.
 
packfan98 said:
@Myfrotho704_ do you have any soundings from the 18z euro? Checking to see if that warm nose is cool off any. Looks like it might have a little since there is some sleet showing up.
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Unfortunately nah I can’t get the soundings, only pivotal has that with 12z/00z, but looking at 850s/925s, it was similar or perhaps a little cooler then 12z
 
HSVweather said:
Cut from AFD


Some good news, while the initial precip will likely be a wintry mix
of snow/sleet/FZRA, it will quickly transition to all rain sometime
overnight as a result of strong WAA between 700mb and 850mb. Early
Thursday morning, nearly all of the forecast area should be at or
slightly above freezing. Latest forecast only calls for a few
hundredths of ice and less than an inch of snow mainly across NW
Alabama. The rest of the area will get only rain, which I know is a
welcome site for all across the Tennessee Valley. The morning model
guidance supports this warmer trend and hence these values are less
than the previous forecast package.

Rain will come to an end Thursday afternoon/evening from west to east
as the cold front swings through. The cold air should arrive after
the precip ends, but cannot rule out a few postfrontal flurries.
Another cold night Thursday with overnight lows in the lower 20s
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I think they have realized they screwed up, Already talking about issuing something before the late news, expected to be a watch for northwest ala/south tenn. That was a horrible forecast and discussion.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Calm before the storm here on the eastern slopes. Temps crashing, currently 21.

View attachment 75674
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I can see my house from there no jk that will be a pretty pic com Thursday morning. I'm anxious to see how low we get tonight the ground temps are colder too so this storm may have legs for more than elevated surface ice accumulations.
 
Stormlover said:
RAP, yeah, something's going up in NW Ala soon View attachment 75690
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still flurries in Huntsville.....Been sledding all day of Monte Sano. Went sleep last night with sunny weather mid 20s high by 2pm by local weather. LMAO. Woke up light snow showers, been like that all day max temp 19 degrees. I will take my chances of just wait and see
 
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