SnowNiner
Member
I'm surprised GSP placed Mecklenburg county under a watch.
Me too. Well see what happens. Unless the models go a good bit colder, I bet Mecklenburg will go over to WWA in the morning.
I'm surprised GSP placed Mecklenburg county under a watch.
Yeah I find it hard to believe it snows til morning and only snows a couple inches especially with snow still on the ground and temps around 20
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I am scheduled to drive up to Blowing Rock on Friday afternoon. Do those who live near the area think the roads will be impassable during the mid-day hours?
Just my opinion but I believe WAA will win out tomorrow night. Initially we will start out a mix in the afternoon might have a few issues before it warms up overnight. Might hang on a little longer toward state line.wheres my north bama peeps??want your insight
I think from highway 278 northward will have a good chance of seeing 1-3 inches of snow/sleet. It's going to be a close call on the change over.wheres my north bama peeps??want your insight
@Myfrotho704 do you have the total accumulation map?
Mets don’t seem to think this is gonna be a big deal. I’m hoping it surprises us but I have a feeling it’s gonna play out similar to the previous storm and pretty much everyone east of I-65 will see mostly rainwheres my north bama peeps??want your insight
Me too. Well see what happens. Unless the models go a good bit colder, I bet Mecklenburg will go over to WWA in the morning.
Looks like a another small shift south for north Alabama and Mississippi..
One thing I’ve noticed this evening is how these local tv stations futurecast models seem to be coming in on the cold side and putting the ZR well into the SC upstate.... they really don’t have the freezing line moving north much until the precip is almost cleared. I’ve noticed over the years that these in-house models often run a bit warm, so if they keep coming in on the colder side this might be a bigger issue further southThe model runs have been getting colder each run and more south as well. That's why Meck is under a watch. Sure, they could change to a WWA, but with the recent trends, I wouldn't count on it. The Euro is horrible with CAD events and it has trended more south with each run. Like I said before, that cold air to our north is no joke. And we have snowpack. Models never tend to do well when it comes to small but important details like that. This is one more south move away from putting a large portion of the state's largest cities in a sig zr event IMO. And honestly given the trends it would not surprise me to see some more southward trends as time progresses. I am glad they put us under a watch. Better safe than sorry.
I will keep an eye on HRRR but think the NAM is better. 18Z 3k had 0 snow here. I will say the warm nose dialed back for the first several hours of that run so maybe the trend is our friend ?Is 1-3 inches of snow before switching a good bet here in Roanoke, VA? Currently thinking somewhere between Nam and gfs. Nam IMO is too aggressive with warm nose up here but gfs not aggressive enough.
Congrats to the northern half of Dade County!!! ???
One thing I’ve noticed this evening is how these local tv stations futurecast models seem to be coming in on the cold side and putting the ZR well into the SC upstate.... they really don’t have the freezing line moving north much until the precip is almost cleared. I’ve noticed over the years that these in-house models often run a bit warm, so if they keep coming in on the colder side this might be a bigger issue further south
Unfortunately nah I can’t get the soundings, only pivotal has that with 12z/00z, but looking at 850s/925s, it was similar or perhaps a little cooler then 12z@Myfrotho704_ do you have any soundings from the 18z euro? Checking to see if that warm nose is cool off any. Looks like it might have a little since there is some sleet showing up.
I think they have realized they screwed up, Already talking about issuing something before the late news, expected to be a watch for northwest ala/south tenn. That was a horrible forecast and discussion.Cut from AFD
Some good news, while the initial precip will likely be a wintry mix
of snow/sleet/FZRA, it will quickly transition to all rain sometime
overnight as a result of strong WAA between 700mb and 850mb. Early
Thursday morning, nearly all of the forecast area should be at or
slightly above freezing. Latest forecast only calls for a few
hundredths of ice and less than an inch of snow mainly across NW
Alabama. The rest of the area will get only rain, which I know is a
welcome site for all across the Tennessee Valley. The morning model
guidance supports this warmer trend and hence these values are less
than the previous forecast package.
Rain will come to an end Thursday afternoon/evening from west to east
as the cold front swings through. The cold air should arrive after
the precip ends, but cannot rule out a few postfrontal flurries.
Another cold night Thursday with overnight lows in the lower 20s
@DarkKnight do you think if the south shift continues Tuscaloosa and Birmingham might get in on the action?Looks like a another small shift south for north Alabama and Mississippi..
WAA, HRRR sucks, mostly a cold rain...maybe a front end thump of sleet and freezing rain for the 4 NW’n counties. Now....everyone fire away again...wheres my north bama peeps??want your insight
Remember the south shift on the HRRR leading up to yesterday’s event?.....Yea, we know how that went.@DarkKnight do you think if the south shift continues Tuscaloosa and Birmingham might get in on the action?
I expect the HRRR to be colder at 00z, I almost wanna bet a million dollars, if it is I am granted being a southernwx moderatorWhat will the NAMS do tonight ... we will soon find out if they continue the same trend
Looks like a another small shift south for north Alabama and Mississippi..
I can see my house from there no jk that will be a pretty pic com Thursday morning. I'm anxious to see how low we get tonight the ground temps are colder too so this storm may have legs for more than elevated surface ice accumulations.Calm before the storm here on the eastern slopes. Temps crashing, currently 21.
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Probably not. Unfortunately..@DarkKnight do you think if the south shift continues Tuscaloosa and Birmingham might get in on the action?
still flurries in Huntsville.....Been sledding all day of Monte Sano. Went sleep last night with sunny weather mid 20s high by 2pm by local weather. LMAO. Woke up light snow showers, been like that all day max temp 19 degrees. I will take my chances of just wait and seeRAP, yeah, something's going up in NW Ala soon View attachment 75690