Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wow the 12z High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) FRAM mean is insane lol. Suggesting >0.5" for parts of the I-85 corridor between the Triad & Triangle.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Holy smokes, verbatim would be warning criteria for a row of counties east and south of the current WSW..... HREF accuracy?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd say overall FRAM from HREF mean is respectable and definitely something you can hang your hat more on than any individual CAM & certainly over global models.
Here are the high resolution models that go into it. It's basically a CAM mean of the 12z plus 0z runs.
Wtf lol
MY SISTERS ... okay well the writing is on the wall ... for us “weenies” who were thrown around the walls and spat on yesterday for saying there could be a chance that this CAD trends colder than what models are showing 48 hours out ... I am here with you AND WE WILL STAND STRONG ??? I’m just messin around but in all seriousness this is getting fairly serious with models coming in colder especially globals .. that’s a recipe for disaster when they usually under-model CAD even this far out .. I hope for the sake of the power grid this ain’t that bad for everyone but i unfortunate think it will be more of a nuisance for more people than previously thought
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If we can get sfc temps to drop about another 2F or so vs the models leading into this event, things could start getting ugly even down into the parts of the Triangle area (esp just NW of downtown Raleigh). I'm not ready to buy that yet esp given the potential for convective-type precip that could quickly raise sfc temps to freezing, but we seem to be headed in a direction that could end up being more than just a nuisance event for folks in Franklin, southern Granville, NW Wake, south-central Durham, northern Chatham, & south-central Orange counties. (RDU Airport, Durham, Chapel Hill, Creedmoor, Youngsville, etc)
Dewpoint Dan
Member
That dancing weiner is highly disturbing.
Brick sighting in 3, 2, 1
Also should be interesting to see what the euro does (it’s still bad with low level cold, for example the last system) if it comes in colder,
Oof load size needs to be turned on high, not max but high
Also should be interesting to see what the euro does (it’s still bad with low level cold, for example the last system) if it comes in colder,
Oof load size needs to be turned on high, not max but high
Looking at the euro early on, at H5 the TPV has sped up a tad vs 00z/06z
Hopefully that doesn’t raise More heights up there
Hopefully that doesn’t raise More heights up there
Yuck. Not liking those darker colors showing up more towards the CLT metro. Even Rock Hill/Monroe getting in on some action. Any colder runs/stronger HP and things could get ugly for a lot of the populated metros of the state.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Last 4 days of 12z UKMET runs.
Ok, this trend can stop now...
Ok, this trend can stop now...
Gonna be 32 in CLT by 00z tonight lol
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I have a very hard time believing the cold and ice the models are showing for here. I expect more cold rain for Wake from this one.
Oh chittt 
Chitt is right. Like you said it tends to run to warm at the surface. Trends aren't in our favor if you like power. My only hope would be that Triad can see some more sleet since they've already been hit hard.
Oh no 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Things you hate to see: that 12z Euro run. Not a good sign when it’s showing 31-32F in RDU already
All I can conclude, is that the trends have been mad ugly, and like what @Webberweather53 said, the NBM FRAM is probably gonna look more ugly and even more south
Euro went full Mount Pinatubo pants for parts of Ms/Al/Tn. Had snow/sleet well south at least early on. Looked colder than the gfs
I should have a map ready for the the entire SE soon @Stormlover
Jackpot for me. Not sure that’s the kind of jackpot I want to be in, though. ?
Stormlover
Member
EURO 
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I know most of the wide spread winter weather looks to be in the Carolinas, but the storm track on this storm is improving for Mississippi and Alabama. It almost seems like the RGM model got bit on the warm nose in Bama in the last storm and is over reacting with this storm. Also an east wind with the air mass to the east is not nearly as warm at the surface as it was with the last storm, and even with the warm nose ( which has shifted slightly south east and lessened) 925 are slightly cooler to the east. Not to mention, today's highs have been much lower than forecast, and low and mid level moisture is increasing from the west which might bring clouds back in early enough to keep surface temps lower. If we get another tick or two south with suppression on the LP it could get interesting ?
South colder trend may really pay out for you guys
I'd be concerned if I lived in Al that the warm nose around 700ish mb comes in more pronounced versus current modeling so its more of a sleet/rain/freezing rain event
MichaelJ
Member
I think (and hope) that these temps will bust on the low side. Projection for today was 47 and we are 49 now with 2 mores hours of sunshine to get warmer. If we can raise our temps by 2 degrees over the progged numbers, the Triad should be okay with just minimal ZR. Tonight will be a good test as to whether the cold starts locking in as our low temp is supposed to be 24.
iGRXY
Member
Honestly this looking really really interesting even down in the upstate at this point. Globals struggle with low level cold and even they have us hovering between 32-34 degrees and still time for it to continue to trend colder. The short range models are even spitting out some dangerous numbers from GSP to CLT to RDU.
Temps will have be below 30 to see any significant icing on roads. Trees im sure will glaze up. If temps get up tomorrow nothing on roads just like last time. Concern is ground is soaked so trees won't need much ice to fall
WSNC
Member
No. Hoping better track may help cool upper level temps off to give us more sleet. Curious to see if NAM starts backing off 10+c 850 warm nose on future runs.
Latest HRRR runs definitely look better than earlier for DFW, now showing 2-3" of mostly snow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If this keeps ticking south and suppressed that’s not gonna be good for NC esp from the Triad and pts south. We’ll start to lose the super strong forcing for ascent and the precip rates will be lighter overall >> higher ZR accrual efficiency. The heavier rates are probably the only way we can really break this cad down fast enough to avoid a bad ice storm and if those don’t come because the storm is too suppressed... rip.
DadOfJax
Member
It should be noted though, with the sun, the HRRR is several degrees too cold with surface temps.
bingcrosbyb
Member
DadOfJax
Member
That would be amazing for sure!
smast16
Member
Bought a Kit to allow me to hook the my Generator to the inside sub Panel. Looking like a well spent $200.
Edit: grammer
Last edited: