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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

FallsLake said:
12z Canadian wants to bring RDU to its knees. Of course we've seen these type of crazy outputs in the past.
QPF:
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Even the FRAM is stupid but fortunately the GDPS is always too cold, can't really deny the trends though and I think some of y'all in and around the triangle that missed out Saturday will get your chance this time.

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FallsLake said:
12z Canadian wants to bring RDU to its knees. Of course we've seen these type of crazy outputs in the past.
QPF:
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What concerns me is the NAM ticking colder combined with the GFS showing a good deal of ZR. The GFS seems to struggle with CAD and the fact even it is quite aggressive with totals is concerning.
 
Webberweather53 said:
+10-13°C warm nose at just 850mb. Good luck getting sleet w/ that...

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Yeah I’m thinking if there any heavy IP, it’ll be for areas more north at the onset, especially in VA, for areas south we seem to always pull Ts-.1s with a evap cooling at the onset
Oh and that warm nose may be strong enough to bring in some elevated thunderstorms, wonder if that speeds up the process of latent heat release, there may be legit thunder/ZR in some areas
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah I’m thinking if there any heavy IP, it’ll be for areas more north at the onset, especially in VA, for areas south we seem to always pull Ts-.1s with a evap cooling at the onset
Oh and that warm nose may be strong enough to bring in some elevated thunderstorms, wonder if that speeds up the process of latent heat release, there may be legit thunder/ZR in some areas
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The 3km NAM has ~100 j/kg MUCAPE in some of these soundings, any moist convection that gets going is gonna do a number on the low-level cold dome by dumping warm(er) rain into it w/ rain drops warming to ~55F just a few thousand feet off the sfc. This is exactly why I've refrained from going w/ ZR totals higher than 0.33" east of the mountains, because the heavier rates and warmer rain drops falling into the dome could take longer to freeze and rapidly warm the temps up to freezing or beyond. If we had a longer duration event w/ lower precip rates like the last ice storm, it might be all over but the crying for widespread 0.4-0.5"+ amounts, but I don't think we can be really confident in much more than 0.25-0.33" atm.

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YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Gotta be a blip right? RDU usually on the fringe of these events. Not the main show.
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It's going to depend on the temps. The one thing that is concerning (or not if you want ice), is the initial cold airmass. Dew points in the teens usually signal big winter storms for our area.
 
From what I’ve been reading looks like this historic warm nose is going to prevent anything other than nuisance tree-topper ice event! Eh Warm nose ftw!


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Webberweather53 said:
Still looks like freezing rain in the Triad to me, that warm nose is absolutely ridiculous and the 925mb level is almost at the sfc over the Triad due to elevation. The near sfc cold layer doesn't look deep or strong enough to offset that absurd near +10°C warm nose at 850mb & I doubt there would be refreezing. If the warm nose was <5°C then you might have a point here, but that's way too strong

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Although sleet looks unlikely (although we can always hope) that layer is deep enough to probably super cool those raindrops and making them easier to freeze on contact .. even with higher rates .. would be interesting to see
 
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