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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Webberweather53 said:
Wow the 12z High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) FRAM mean is insane lol. Suggesting >0.5" for parts of the I-85 corridor between the Triad & Triangle.

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Jackpot for me. Not sure that’s the kind of jackpot I want to be in, though. ?
 
I know most of the wide spread winter weather looks to be in the Carolinas, but the storm track on this storm is improving for Mississippi and Alabama. It almost seems like the RGM model got bit on the warm nose in Bama in the last storm and is over reacting with this storm. Also an east wind with the air mass to the east is not nearly as warm at the surface as it was with the last storm, and even with the warm nose ( which has shifted slightly south east and lessened) 925 are slightly cooler to the east. Not to mention, today's highs have been much lower than forecast, and low and mid level moisture is increasing from the west which might bring clouds back in early enough to keep surface temps lower. If we get another tick or two south with suppression on the LP it could get interesting ?
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
I know most of the wide spread winter weather looks to be in the Carolinas, but the storm track on this storm is improving for Mississippi and Alabama. It almost seems like the RGM model got bit on the warm nose in Bama in the last storm and is over reacting with this storm. Also an east wind with the air mass to the east is not nearly as warm at the surface as it was with the last storm, and even with the warm nose ( which has shifted slightly south east and lessened) 925 are slightly cooler to the east. Not to mention, today's highs have been much lower than forecast, and low and mid level moisture is increasing from the west which might bring clouds back in early enough to keep surface temps lower. If we get another tick or two south with suppression on the LP it could get interesting ?
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I'd be concerned if I lived in Al that the warm nose around 700ish mb comes in more pronounced versus current modeling so its more of a sleet/rain/freezing rain event
 
I think (and hope) that these temps will bust on the low side. Projection for today was 47 and we are 49 now with 2 mores hours of sunshine to get warmer. If we can raise our temps by 2 degrees over the progged numbers, the Triad should be okay with just minimal ZR. Tonight will be a good test as to whether the cold starts locking in as our low temp is supposed to be 24.
 
Honestly this looking really really interesting even down in the upstate at this point. Globals struggle with low level cold and even they have us hovering between 32-34 degrees and still time for it to continue to trend colder. The short range models are even spitting out some dangerous numbers from GSP to CLT to RDU.
 
MichaelJ said:
I think (and hope) that these temps will bust on the low side. Projection for today was 47 and we are 49 now with 2 mores hours of sunshine to get warmer. If we can raise our temps by 2 degrees over the progged numbers, the Triad should be okay with just minimal ZR. Tonight will be a good test as to whether the cold starts locking in as our low temp is supposed to be 24.
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Temps will have be below 30 to see any significant icing on roads. Trees im sure will glaze up. If temps get up tomorrow nothing on roads just like last time. Concern is ground is soaked so trees won't need much ice to fall
 
If this keeps ticking south and suppressed that’s not gonna be good for NC esp from the Triad and pts south. We’ll start to lose the super strong forcing for ascent and the precip rates will be lighter overall >> higher ZR accrual efficiency. The heavier rates are probably the only way we can really break this cad down fast enough to avoid a bad ice storm and if those don’t come because the storm is too suppressed... rip.
 
SD said:
I'd be concerned if I lived in Al that the warm nose around 700ish mb comes in more pronounced versus current modeling so its more of a sleet/rain/freezing rain event
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We’ve seen that before...warm nose going to blow this one again unless it slides east before cutting.
 
It should be noted though, with the sun, the HRRR is several degrees too cold with surface temps.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow the 12z High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) FRAM mean is insane lol. Suggesting >0.5" for parts of the I-85 corridor between the Triad & Triangle.

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Bought a Kit to allow me to hook the my Generator to the inside sub Panel. Looking like a well spent $200.
Edit: grammer
 
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