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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

The warm nose on the 18z HRRR is a lot weaker than basically every model atm & this model has a history of performing pretty badly in CADs and in the extended, not too surprising to see it so far out in left field atm....

1613505495869.png


I'm gonna have to call BS on this look from the HRRR though, especially when even the GFS (which rarely sniffs out warm noses) is showing one that's at least +5°C stronger for the same time.

1613505558025.png
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
looks like only part of the Charlotte metro is included. I don't think Indian Trail or Fort Mill are included.
Click to expand...

Yet. They are going to go with the most climate favored areas and may add on or change some countries to advisories depending on what later runs show.


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Dewpoint Dan said:
looks like only part of the Charlotte metro is included. I don't think Indian Trail or Fort Mill are included.
Click to expand...
It looks like from the discussion that Union, NC and York, SC are not included. It is something to see them issue a Watch for any part of CLT metro considering their point forecasts this morning made no mention of any wintry precip.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Here’s my SE map, It took over a hour to make this, damn it’s mentally tiring, I went on the side of WAA for most the SE, will make adjustments if I need to
Yes this is my first time ever making a map for the southeast so it’s not that good lol, I prob got things wrong
I notice it’s hard to see but there’s a secondary Shade of pink before the red View attachment 75597
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Damn, did you use Wilkes MS Paint by number?
But seriously, I would not bet against the NAMs thermal profiles! It’s now casting time and I hope everyone affected gets more sleet than ZR
 
GSP
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2pm EST Tuesday: Thursday is expected to have active weather
as large southern storm system moves across the region. Combination
of a thin layer of cold air at the surface supported by cold-air
damming, combined with warm advection above it from the incoming
system, produces the threat for significant freezing rain for any
locations with surface temperatures below 32F. Latest BUFKIT
soundings have a pronounced warm noise in high-res models, as the
NAM and HREF, with the GFS somewhat more muted. Surface
temperatures at lower levels of Western NC (like KAVL) are just
above freezing, and may be warm enough for the event to be rain, but
any higher elevations could see impactful ice with model projections
up to a half inch or more in a few scattered places. Depending on
strength of warm air aloft, some sleet or even snow will also be
possible, but ice currently looks to be the dominant weather type.
Winter Watch will be issued for Thursday, with an expected eventual
Ice Storm warning or advisory should things continue to progress as
expected.

Late Thursday into Friday, things will transition to just rain as
shallow surface layer erodes and temperatures warm from warm
southerly winds. Precipitation ends for the most part by early
Friday morning as system progresses eastward, with some light snow
possible at the highest elevations.

Surface temperatures warm Thursday afternoon in areas south and east
of the cold surface layer, which, along with moisture advection,
will also bring some chance for thunder Thursday afternoon to areas
generally south of I85, with slightly unstable levels of CAPE
developing with some moderate wind shear.
 
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
GSP just hoisted a Winter Storm watch. Including Charlotte metro.
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That’s crazy! Remember when they used to be soooo conservative and not issue anything until it was happening! Looking sketchy at best, and probably will catch a lot of people off guard!
 
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